Summer 2020 Box Office Predictions

Despite COVID-19 shutting down movie theaters for two months, the theatrical moviegoing experience is about to come roaring back to life. To boot, it's bringing a whole swarm of highly-anticipated blockbusters with it. Though a number of films previously scheduled for Summer 2020, like Black Widow, have chosen to open in Autumn instead, movie studios have gotten crafty with how to quickly make titles to fill out their Summer 2020 slate. Such ingenuity has resulted in some of the most anticipated movies of the season. Which ten of these films will end up as the biggest movies of Summer 2020? Well, as per annual tradition, I'm here to offer my predictions on who will end up as the ten biggest movies of the summer moviegoing season.





1. Wonder Woman 1984

I mean, this is the big one of the summer. The first Wonder Woman hit the big screen three years ago and took off like a rocket. Overperforming to a $103 million opening weekend, Wonder Woman proceeded to have some of the best legs of any superhero movie in terms of weekend-to-weekend declines. Spurred by phenomenal word-of-mouth, this sequel aims to significantly improve on its predecessors' opening weekend. With no other big superhero fare opening for the rest of the summer (save for Morbius), all signs pointing to WW1984 also being able to hold well throughout the summer moviegoing season.

Opening Weekend: $180 million

Total Domestic Gross: $470 million

2. Oliver & Company (2020)

Oliver & Company has never been one of the most beloved movies in the Disney Animation canon. However, its live-action remake is turning into one of the most anticipated titles of Summer 2020. Penciled in for the same late July release date that The Lion King thrived in last year, this gritty update on Oliver & Company comes courtesy of a filmmaking duo famous for their tales about eccentric characters in New York, Josh & Benny Safdie.

An unexpected choice for a Disney movie, to be sure, but allowing the duo to incorporate their specific style of grimy cinematography has ensured that Oliver & Company looks like no other family movie this summer. The hype for this one is considerable, especially given that the Safdies have gotten Uncut Gems leading man Adam Sandler to play a new version of Dodger.

Opening Weekend: $120 million

Total Domestic Gross: $400 million

3. Soul

It’s a PIXAR movie released in mid-June. Unless you’re Cars 3, that’s a recipe for immense financial success. Soul looks like it could go the extra distance to become a particularly big PIXAR adventure, like 2015’s Inside Out. The distinct marketing for Soul has already captured the attention of viewers both young and old. Plus, with Minions: The Rise of Gru delayed to next year, there aren’t any other big animated movies for Soul to compete with in Summer 2020. Those PIXAR artists are about to have another big box office hit.

Opening Weekend: $100 million

Total Domestic Gross: $380 million

4. Stretch Armstrong

Paramount and Hasbro are teaming up for their newest summer blockbuster, this time focused on the most flexible of all superheroes. After a version with Taylor Lautner went nowhere back in 2012, Paramount and Hasbro are now making a big-budget Stretch Armstrong vehicle this year’s big 4^th of July blockbuster. Starring Jai Courtney, a drab color palette and the entire discography of Staind under the direction of McG, Stretch Armstrong looks poised to stretch himself into the box office record books.

Opening Weekend: $65 million ($100 million five-day)

Total Domestic Gross: $280 million

5. Tenet

They said it couldn’t be done. “Releasing Tenet on July 17^th is madness” all those health experts said. Well, it’s Christopher Nolan whose getting the last laugh! His new film, a gritty reboot of R.I.P.D., will get released on July 17, 2020 as originally planned. Christopher Nolan won’t have to forfeit the mid-July release date that’s served him so well in the last twelve years. So long as audiences sign a long and all-encompassing waiver before they enter the auditorium, they'll be able to enjoy all the joys of Tenet.

Opening Weekend: $77 million

Total Domestic Gross: $320 million

6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 3

It's been five years since the last Blart adventure and a whopping eleven years since the one that started it all. Have audiences lost their enthusiasm for this character? Maybe they would have...if the third movie wasn't going in such a drastically different direction. Instead of a rehash of its predecessors, this new Blart movie is a darker entry, one that takes the franchise into R-rated territory as a middle-aged Blart is called out of early retirement to take down a White supremacist group bent on world domination. Director David Fincher has taken the reins on this one and has openly promised an entry that preserves the slapstick comedy of the first two Blart titles while bringing a new darker edge that contemplates mortality. With such a bold creative swing, look for that to pay off in box office figures significantly above its predecessors.

Opening Weekend: $72 million
Total Domestic Gross: $230 million

7. Top Gun: Maverick

It may have had to be delayed to August, but Tom Cruise is still heading back to the Danger Zone in Summer 2020. Armed with Miles Teller, Maverick will try to become one of the biggest movies ever for Tom Cruise. That looks likely given the successful track record of nostalgia-fueled sequels in recent years. Adjusted for inflation, the original Top Gun made $433.5 million. The sequel should be able to make at least half of that, making it the second-biggest Tom Cruise movie ever, behind only War of the Worlds.

Opening Weekend: $75 million
Total Domestic Gross: $220 million

8. Hillbilly Bone: The Movie

(From left to right) Hillbilly Bone singers Trace Adkins & Blake Shelton

Pure Flix isn't an outfit you normally associate with box office juggernauts. That's about to change come this Summer. A film they previously scheduled to burn off on their streaming service is quickly turning into the kind of light-hearted escapist fare audiences come out to see in droves. A film adaptation of Blake Shelton's beloved 2010 single Hillbilly Bone, Shelton stars in this musical alongside Larry the Cable Guy and Kevin Sorbo as a trio of good o'l country boys returning to their hometown. Once there, they have to shake off the cobwebs of city-life and get in touch with their redneck side as imagined by wealthy record executives who've never actually been to the South. Plenty of jokes, heartfelt moments and surprisingly abrasive racist material ensues. Hillbilly Bone appears to be something audiences are looking forward to jamming out with all summer long.

Opening Weekend: $50 million
Total Domestic Gross: $175 million

9. Mile 23

How are we getting a sequel to the 2018 box office bomb Mile 22? Well, director Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg got bored during this pandemic and, in the process, created something groundbreaking. Mile 23 is an action movie that was filmed entirely during the quarantine. Berg, Wahlberg, Iko Uwais and other actors filmed themselves in their own homes with their cell phones and then the footage was stitched together in post-production to make a feature film. NERF Guns and Adobe After Effects were used in lieu of traditional prop guns and controlled explosions, respectively. Costing approximately$12,000 to make, Mile 23 is already generating enough conversation to guarantee it becomes one of the biggest movies of the summer.

Opening Weekend: $60 million
Total Domestic Gross: $160 million

10. Desert Hearts (2020 Re-Issue)

Another example of studios having to get crafty to fill out the Summer 2020 slate, Desert Hearts is getting a theatrical re-release in over 3,000 theaters. There aren't any other big romantic dramas opening in the Summertime despite titles like The Fault in Our Stars thriving in this timeframe. Desert Hearts will be able to fill a void in the marketplace and allow a whole new generation of moviegoers to discover one of the greatest films of all-time.

Opening Weekend: $44 million
Total Domestic Gross: $150 million