Thursday, June 26, 2014

Box Office Predictions: Transformers 4 Will Be Massive...But How Massive?

In Box Office Predictions, I take a look at the forthcoming weekend and see how new releases and holdovers will fare.

Unless the Frankie Valli fanboys come out in droves this weekend, the Autobots will wage their war against the Decepticons to humongous numbers. The primary question of course is how big this movie can possibly be.

The summer has been full of hits, but none have been able to cross $250 million, let alone $300 million. The lack of a movie able to accomplish that feat has left many hoping Transformers: Age of Extinction can pull it off and, as Deadline put it, get the summer out of its funk. However, pinning such weighty expectations on a film usually lead to disappointment (as I saw with my over the top predictions for How To Train Your Dragon 2), so for now, let's just look at how this one can do, all hype aside.

The last three Transformers opened outside of summer, for opening weekends that were (in order from first to third movie) $70 million, $108 million and $97 million. They also opened on Wednesday, which helped burn off demand, while this entry opens on a Friday, which theoretically means it'd open higher. This one has a whole new cast though, and even if it retains Optimus Prime and adds Mark Wahlberg, that might turn off some moviegoers. That portion of audience should be minimal though, and they should be able to cross $100 million, though I think they'll just miss hitting a new series high.

The holdovers would normally crumble in the face of a mighty Transformer movie, but unlike in years past (where other major summer blockbusters went toe-to-toe with the Autobots), the box office right now primarily consists of comedies, dramas and family movies. Since they'll work as nice counter programming to the action-packed Transformers adventure, decent holds should be in store for films in those genres, while action movies will probably plummet.

Below are not only my predictions for the box office Top 5, but also predictions for the opening weekend and final total for this weekends sole new release.

Transformers: Age of Extinction:
Opening Weekend: $107 million
Total Gross:  $245 million

1) Transformers :Age of Extinction: $107 million
2) 22 Jump Street: $17.7 million
3) How To Train Your Dragon 2: $17.2 million
4) Think Like A Man Too: $12.5 million
5) Jersey Boys: $8.6 million

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