Summer 2022 Box Office Predictions

 

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is not on this list, but how could I not make this lil' guy the header image?!?

Boy, it feels weird to be doing this again.

For the first time in three years, I can do a proper Summer Box Office Predictions column. Knock on wood, we’re going to have a traditional summertime box office season that starts the first weekend of May and ends over Labor Day weekend. What a concept. The COVID-19 pandemic erased summer 2020 entirely and ensured that summer 2021 (save for A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella) didn’t start until F9 arrived at the end of June 2021. Even then, a deluge of movies that offered up new theatrical titles simultaneously on big streaming services made things feel off-kilter.

So far, though, only Firestarter and Honk for Jesus, Save Your Soul among this summer’s wide theatrical releases have announced simultaneous launches on the small screen. The rest of this summer’s titles are all theatrical exclusives. Granted, it’s not a totally normal summer still. For one thing, there’s a dearth of comedies. Even compared to the summer of 2019, which had Good Boys, Stuber, and Long Shot (among others) all premiering theatrically, there really aren’t any major comedies dropping in the summer of 2022. August 2022 is also looking shockingly barren now that The Man from Toronto has hightailed it out of the month. August is usually where R-rated comedies or sleeper hit horror movies can thrive, but Hollywood’s continued emphasis on tentpoles means that we won’t have any potential surprise hits in that month this year.

Still, the slate for summer 2022 does look promising overall and the resurgence of family and adult women moviegoers throughout spring 2022 (not to mention the extraordinary sleeper success of Everything Everywhere All at Once) confirms that it isn’t just superhero movies that can thrive on the big screen provided that Hollywood, y’know, provides those titles. It’s doubtful (thanks to that empty August) that summer 2022 can match the biggest summer box office hauls of all-time, but it should still do fine for itself.

With that, let’s look ahead at my predictions for the 10 biggest movies at the domestic box office this summer. As in years past, I’m delivering projections for opening weekend and final gross sums as well as accompanying analysis on why I think these titles will perform the way they do.

10. Elvis

The biggest advantage Elvis has going for it is that its distributor, Warner Bros., has no other movies dropping in the first two months of Summer 2022. The studio can solely concentrate on getting this title to a sizeable box office gross rather than splits its attention across multiple titles. The music biopic has a shaky track record to be sure (for every Bohemian Rhapsody, there’s a Respect), but Elvis Presley feels like a famous enough figure to attract moviegoers of all ages. Having Tom Hanks around in a showy supporting role should further sweeten the pot for general audiences.

Back in the summer of 2019, Rocketman opened to $24 million before legging it out to $97 million. I’d imagine Elvis can at least do a touch better than that since Presley is so ubiquitous and it’ll have the full might of the Warner Bros. marketing machine behind it. Let’s say this one narrowly cracks $30 million on opening weekend and then sticks around for a while. It won’t be the biggest Baz Luhrmann film ever in North America, but it’ll be a solid performer and just the kind of adult-skewing film that can take off once the middle of the summer arrives. That’s the point in the season where moviegoers begin to crave something that isn’t big and full of explosions. Elvis could fill that niche nicely.

Projected Opening Weekend: $30 million

Project Domestic Total: $115 million

9. Bullet Train

Since he burst onto people’s radars in May 1991 in Thelma & Louise, Brad Pitt has managed to appear in nine live-action movies that cracked $100 million domestically (not counting his brief cameo appearance in Deadpool 2). That’s not an expansive club of movies that cracked nine-digits in North America, but it’s wide enough to suggest it’s not impossible for a new blockbuster starring Pitt to crack $100 million in this territory. This is where the new Pitt movie Bullet Train comes into the equation, which seems poised to be a successful sleeper hit for Sony/Columbia.

Some movies are really complex in terms of the elements that suggest they’ll be hits. For Bullet Train, it’s quite simple. The early marketing, including an appealing trailer that debuted on The Batman, has been eye-catching, and this is the kind of movie people like to see Pitt in. Plus, it’s debuting the last weekend of July, which means it can play as the most recent action movie game in town during a surprisingly sparse August for new theatrical releases. As long as the film isn’t historically terrible (which could totally happen, of course), Bullet Train seems like it’s locked and loaded to be a hit despite not being based on source material that’s already a household name. Who knew appealing concepts and movie stars could get butts into movie theaters? Those factors should all combine to make Bullet Train the tenth live-action Brad Pitt film to exceed $100 million domestically.

Projected Opening Weekend: $39 million

Projected Domestic Total: $120 million

8. DC League of Super-Pets

Warner Bros. has a shockingly poor box office track record for animated movies considering it’s the studio behind Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck. The LEGO Movie and Happy Feet were unquestionably hits, but then there’s The Ant Bully, Storks, Smallfoot, and the last two LEGO Movies. That erratic box office track record means that their newest family-friendly cartoons enter the marketplace with more skepticism in terms of box office prospects than, say, the newest Illumination feature. But if anything could manage to be a solid performer for the studio, it’d be DC’s League of Super-Pets.

Based in the world of DC Comics and even using characters like Superman and Batman in prominent supporting roles, Super-Pets focuses on a gaggle of misfit pets who get superpowers. A premise that probably got some Warner Bros. executive salivating at the thought of a cross between the Marvel Cinematic Universe and The Secret Life of Pets, this one also comes packed with the combined weight of Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart in the lead roles. The popularity of DC properties, Johnson and Hart’s reliability in family-friendly fare, and a late summer release date where it won’t have to face much competition should give this one a solid boost and make it a welcome animated movie hit for Warner Bros.

Projected Opening Weekend: $34 million

Projected Domestic Total: $130 million

7. Nope

Jordan Peele’s first two directorial efforts each managed to exceed $160 million domestically, both incredible feats for original R-rated horror movies. Look for that streak to continue with Nope, a mysterious new horror film that’s already getting buzz thanks to a swam of eye-catching teasers and posters. We have a few horror films lined up for this summer, but none are even close to Nope in terms of how high-profile they are or the filmmaking pedigree they come saddled with.

Intriguingly, Nope was filmed with IMAX cameras and its marketing is emphasizing an even greater sense of scale than Us, which could make this even more of a must-see event for moviegoers. Unlike the last two Peele movies too, Nope will take advantage of summer weekdays to further juice its box office haul. If reviews turn out divisive or negative, a film like this without a big brand name to stand on could end up flaming out real quickly at the box office.  But if Nope resonates with people anywhere near at the level of Peele’s previous movies, then this auteur can expect his third consecutive box office hit, with there being a lot of potential here for Nope to go even higher.

Projected Opening Weekend: $75 million

Projected Domestic Total: $180 million

6. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Back in 2017, the Despicable Me franchise demonstrated its first instance of box office vulnerability with Despicable Me 3. That sounds weird to say for a movie that grossed $1 billion worldwide on an $80 million budget, but domestically, the films $264 million haul was a sharp 41% decline from the North American gross of Despicable Me 2. It was also down 28% from the domestic gross of Minions just two years earlier. This franchise appears to have peaked domestically in 2013, and even when The Rise of Gru was set to drop in July 2020, it was bound to experience further decline.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic delayed the film an additional two years, meaning it’ll now arrive a whopping five years since the last Despicable Me outing and seven years since the original Minions. The general public has doubtlessly cooled on these characters in that timespan and intense competition from other family movies like Lightyear and League of Super-Pets won’t help. The enduring appeal of those Minions will probably keep this one above the domestic gross of The Secret Life of Pets 2 and it may be able to just squeak past $200 million if Universal can deliver one of its no-holds-barred marketing campaigns. Minions: The Rise of Gru will be far from an unprofitable venture but it will be another sign that the Despicable Me saga is now what it was a decade ago.

Projected Opening Weekend: $65 million
Projected Domestic Total: $205 million

5. Top Gun: Maverick

Did you know Tom Cruise has never starred in a movie that made over $235 million domestically? It’s true. The 2005 blockbuster War of the Worlds is still the man’s highest-grossing feature with $234 million while none of the Mission: Impossible titles have exceeded $220 million in North America. This means there’s a ceiling in terms of how high Tom Cruise features can go. That having been said, there’s more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic, at least at this juncture, about the box office prospects of Top Gun: Maverick, the latest Cruise vehicle.

For starters, it’s a legacy sequel, an incredibly popular mold of the blockbuster right now. For another, it see’s Cruise returning to one of his most iconic roles. Top Gun isn’t Star Wars, but it’s still a popular movie, and the nostalgia associated with this feature should give it some solid rocket fuel. The lack of big blockbusters beyond Jurassic World in June should also allow it hold better than your average Memorial Day blockbuster. Plus, Paramount Pictures has been on a hot streak this year successfully launching everything from Scream to The Lost City to Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Maverick seems poised to keep the good times rolling. It won’t dethrone War of the Worlds to become the biggest Cruise movie ever domestically but expect this long-awaited Top Gun follow-up to still be a sizeable box office winner.

Projected Opening Weekend: $79 million

Projected Domestic Total: $225 million

4. Lightyear

Believe it or not, it’s been three years since a PIXAR movie had a conventional theatrical release uninterrupted by the pandemic. Onward got its theatrical run cut abruptly short by the pandemic, while Soul, Luca, and Turning Red all went straight to Disney+. But now PIXAR has a sequel starring a white guy on its slate, so I guess it can’t be dumped to streaming. Lightyear comes courtesy of the Toy Story franchise, which has achieved the remarkable feat of constantly improving on its predecessor in terms of domestic and worldwide grosses. Each Toy Story has been bigger than the last, though Lightyear will probably put an end to that. That’s less because Lightyear is guaranteed to be a cataclysmically “bad” movie and more that it’s a spin-off, those tend to always do weaker box office than their predecessors.

Carrying over only one character from the Toy Story franchise, not to mention feeling less like an organic extension of the story of Buzz and Woody, will keep Lightyear a bit grounded in terms of box office. However, otherwise, the movie appears good to go in terms of box office prowess. 8 of the last 10 PIXAR movie to open in the summer ended up grossing over $235 million domestically, with the only two exceptions being Cars sequels. Something connected to the Toy Story saga that also serves as the first big-animated kids movie of summer 2022 is bound to keep that box office hot streak alive. This won’t be the next Toy Story 4 at the box office, but Lightyear should have no problem being another summertime hit for PIXAR.

Projected Opening Weekend: $95 million

Projected Domestic Total: $325 million

3. Thor: Love and Thunder

Moviegoers have finally gotten their first glimpse at Thor: Love and Thunder and it looks like a lot of fun. It also looks like just the kind of teaser that’s bound to draw the attention of moviegoers. The visuals look stunning and there’s a good balance between the old and the new here. Thor, Valkyrie, and Korg are all back, but there’s also lots of new locations to explore while the Guardians of the Galaxy are showing up for the first time in a solo Thor film. Then there’s the big final moment of the teaser depicting Natalie Portman’s Jane Foster returning with a hammer as the new version of Thor.

This teaser is all people have to go on regarding Thor: Love and Thunder right now, but it’s easy to see why Disney/Marvel marketers think that’ll be enough to get people into the theater. By far the biggest title set to launch in July 2022, Thor: Love and Thunder looks poised to have a strong box office run, especially given the positive reception to Thor: Ragnarok and Thor’s increased exposure after being a lead character in the last two Avengers movies. The latter appearances will doubtlessly help this score an even bigger box office haul than Ragnarok, though how high it goes will depend on the rest of its marketing campaign and its eventual critical reception. For now, though, it looks pretty easy to determine that Thor: Love and Thunder will be another big box office hit for the God of Thunder.

Projected Opening Weekend: $165 million

Projected Domestic Total: $465 million

2. Jurassic World: Dominion

Though it didn’t inspire a massive impact on pop culture, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom proved to be a remarkably powerful beast at the box office. A dropoff from the box office of 2015’s Jurassic World was inevitable, which meant Fallen Kingdom fell 36% from its predecessors North American box office haul. However, a $417 million domestic total was still nothing to sneeze at and made it the second-biggest title ever for Universal in this territory. Expect Jurassic World: Dominion to improve on the domestic box office performance, if only narrowly, primarily thanks to the presence of key Jurassic Park cast members and the promise of this being a “finale” to the Jurassic World saga.

The importance of the presence of actors like Sam Neill and Laura Dern in leading roles to Dominion’s box office prowess can’t be underestimated. That defines the film in the eyes of moviegoers as being right in line with lucrative legacy sequels like The Force Awakens. Plus, a mid-June date worked out like gangbusters for the last two Jurassic World movies. Much like with those other two installment, opening here allows Dominion to exploit Father’s Day weekend and function as the only big blockbuster for a whole month. Expect that craft piece of scheduling to help Dominion score one of the biggest box office hauls of the year, though it’s doubtful it comes close to the domestic box office heights of Jurassic World from 2015.

Projected Opening Weekend: $160 million 

Projected Domestic Total: $450 million

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

First of all, can you believe Disney has only released one new theatrical release (Death on The Nile) in the first four months of 2022? Right now, A24 has put out more wide releases in this year than Disney. That’s bonkers. The COVID-19 cinematic landscape is full of unexpected wonders.

Anyway, Disney’s getting back into the blockbuster game with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which is only the fourth theatrical-exclusive title (exempting the Fox movies) to be released by the Mouse House since the pandemic began. Multiverse of Madness already looks poised to be a triumphant box office performer thanks to strong advanced ticket sales and a rampant marketing campaign that’s put the movie on the forefront of the pop culture landscape. The only question now is how high it goes.

Hitting the $260 million debut of Spider-Man: No Way Home will be impossible since that film was a unique Avengers sized crossover event. Seeing Doctor Strange and Scarlet Witch work together is not at the same level of the prospect of watching Alfred Molina’s Doc Ock duke it out with Tom Holland’s Spider-Man. However, the sky is otherwise the limit here. The last few summer kickoff Marvel Studios movies all opened above $150 million save for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (and that barely missed it with a $147 million debut), so that’s the basement here. Getting above the $179 million debut if Captain America: Civil War looks likely at this juncture, and even the $191 million bow of Avengers: Age of Ultron looks like it could get toppled.

Here’s the question I’ll wonder aloud here; could Multiverse of Madness score the biggest May opening weekend ever? That record still belongs to the $207 million bow of The Avengers from 2012 (it’s currently the oldest movie to hold a monthly opening weekend record). It’s not hard to imagine Multiverse of Madness going higher than that, but it doesn’t need to hit such extraordinary numbers to be a hit. Let’s for now say it’ll open in the same range as Age of Ultron and, per usual for an early May Marvel Studios project, a domestic total that’s about 2.35-2.5 times its opening weekend. That would be one heck of a way to kick off the summer 2022 box office, no question.

Projected Opening Weekend: $190 million

Projected Domestic Total: $465 million

In Laman's Terms: Summer 2019 Box Office Predictions (Part Two)

In Laman's Terms is a weekly editorial column where Douglas Laman rambles on about certain topics or ideas that have been on his mind lately. Sometimes he's got serious subjects to discuss, other times he's just got some silly stuff to shoot the breeze about. Either way, you know he's gonna talk about something In Laman's Terms!

OK, it's time for the second part of my Summer 2019 Box Office Predictions. While the first part of this column saw me predicting what would be the ten biggest movies of the summer, this go-around I'll look at every single movie scheduled to open in wide release this summer and place them into one of three columns: Likely Hits, a place for films whose box office success seems assured, Wild Cards, a place for films whose box office future seems cloudy, and Potential Misfires, a place for films likely to underperform at the box office.

Let's kick things off with a look at Summer 2019's...

In Laman's Terms: Summer 2019 Box Office Predictions (Part One)

In Laman's Terms is a weekly editorial column where Douglas Laman rambles on about certain topics or ideas that have been on his mind lately. Sometimes he's got serious subjects to discuss, other times he's just got some silly stuff to shoot the breeze about. Either way, you know he's gonna talk about something In Laman's Terms!

Here we are again. It is time for another summer moviegoing season, which means it's time for yours truly to deliver their annual summer box office predictions. This is an annual two-part column that begins with me predicting the top ten biggest movies of the summer at the domestic box office and ends with a second part seeing me analyzing the box office prospects of every wide release on the docket for release in the summer of 2019.

Let's begin this exercise with my projected top ten movies of summer 2019...

Holiday Season 2018 Box Office Predictions

December has arrived folks and that means it's time to break out a whole bunch of annual festive traditions, like decorating your Christmas tree or sending Christmas cards or in the case of this website, doing my fifth annual Holiday Season Box Office Predictions article! Yes, for the fifth year in a row, I'll be predicting the opening weekend and final domestic grosses for the assorted movies opening in wide release throughout December. One quick note before we begin; there are currently no set release dates for wide release expansions for limited release titles like The Favourite or Mary, Queen of Scots that'll almost certainly go into wide release during December. Thus, no box office predictions will be offered for such titles.

OK, let's begin this tradition with the lone new wide release of this coming weekend....

A Look Back At The Summer 2018 Box Office (PART ONE)

Another Summer has come and gone folks, though if you're like me and live in Texas then the never-ending wave of 95+ degree weather outside will make you think it's still the middle of July! After a few years of underwhelming summertime box office, Summer 2018 delivered the goods with a number of overperforming blockbusters and sequels that improved on the domestic hauls of their predecessors. Best of all, it wasn't just the superhero movies that scored big bucks at the box office, smaller titles like a number of documentaries, Sundance darlings and a sensational romantic-comedy all also managed to score hefty box office sums.

Summer 2018 Box Office Predictions (Part One)

Here we are again folks. For the fourth year in a row, your o'l pal Douglas Laman is looking to size up every single wide release scheduled for the forthcoming summer and evaluate their box office prospects. The time has come for the Summer 2018 Box Office Predictions. We've got a lot of particularly big sequels this summer, with Avengers, Star Wars, Incredibles and Jurassic Park all debuting new installments that should generate heaps of dough, but we've also got a bunch of oddball releases (most of which we'll discuss in part two of this piece) looking to make a dent in the summertime marketplace. Like in years past, this summer box office prediction column will be split into two parts, the first of which covers my predictions for the top ten biggest movies of the summer, while the second details my thoughts on all the other forthcoming movies currently scheduled for wide release between April 27th and Labor Day weekend.

OK folks, I've got my thoughts ready to jot down and AC/DC's Moneytalks blaring as I type this, let's get going.

Holiday 2017 Box Office Predictions

Wait, it's really December 2017? Where did the year go? Well, if it's the start of December, that can mean only one thing....it's time for my Holiday Box Office Predictions essay! Yep, for the fourth year in a row, I'm here to speculate on the box office performance of the various movies being put out in wide release over the next three weeks! Before we go further, you should note that all the opening weekend predictions cover only a movies 3-day opening weekend (spanning from Friday to Sunday) and that the only movie expanding from limited release into wide release over the next three weeks covered here is The Disaster Artist. Wonder Wheel, The Shape Of Water and Darkest Hour are all supposed to go into wide release over this period, but The Disaster Artist was the only one with a projected theater count to work with and that really does help things out when trying to predict how a film will fare when it goes into wide release.

With all that out of the way, let's look at my predictions for how things will go down at the box office over the holiday season of 2017!

A Look At The Box Office Prospects Of March 2017's Numerous Blockbusters

March 2017 is jam-packed with big releases with one big blockbuster arriving each week and even two blockbusters arriving in a single weekend late in the month. I honestly predict that not only will March 2017 beat out March 2016 as the biggest March at the box office ever, it'll also be the first time any given March grosses over $1 billion in its 31 day long lifespan. Seeing as how I'm a big box office obsessive, I got to thinking about the various box office prospects of these films by way of considering how their marketing campaigns are going and how past similar movies have performed at the box office. I've compiled my thoughts below on how I currently predict the six blockbusters of March 2017 will fare, so let's get right down to it!

Summer 2016 Box Office Predictions (Part Two)

Welcome to the second part of my Summer 2016 Box Office Predictions! Back on Tuesday, I examined what films I thought would be the ten biggest of Summer 2016. Now, I'll be looking at the majority of the other films opening this summer. I'll be dividing up the movies into three separate categories; the first is Potential Sleeper Hits, which refers to movies I think have a shot at surprising us all with their box office grosses. Then there are Wild Cards, films that could go either way financially. Finally, I'll also examine Potential Box Office Misfires, movies this summer that I have strong hunch won't make much of a financial dent.

Without further ado, let's get started on the second part of this series!

Potential Sleeper Hits
Out of all of this year's summer blockbusters, Ghostbusters might be the one that feels most unpredictable. Unlike new Marvel or PIXAR movies, where we have recent movies from both studios to look at for guidance on projecting box office, there hasn't been a new Ghostbusters movie in 27 years. That makes predicting this one super tricky, though the presence of legitimately beloved comedic actors like Mellissa McCarthy and Kristen Wiig could really give this one a boost as well as a residual nostalgia for the original two films. Fellow comedy follow-up Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising should also fare well this summer and avoid the fate of comedy sequels like Ted 2, thanks to ads that clearly showcase new characters and comedic situations while emphasizing returning elements from the first film that were popular (like Zac Efron and those abs of his).

Opening the same weekend as Neighbors 2 is The Nice Guys, whose humorous trailers set it up as a distinctive movie (namely in its 1970's setting) quite unlike anything else coming out this summer. If this manages to take off with critics, watch out, cause this could become a big sleeper hit, especially since it's opening one week prior to the lucrative Memorial Day holiday weekend. Me Before You, based on a best-selling book, has a very popular trailer and two stars reasonably popular with younger audiences that could make it solid counter-programming against action heavy films like Ninja Turtles and Warcraft. Meanwhile, The Purge: Election Year should flourish with not only a title that ties in nicely with a certain big American event occurring in November but also has a Fourth Of July release that ties in nicely with the patriotic tinged aesthetic of the franchise.

Here's another comedy I'm predicting takes off at the box office; Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates. Something just tells me that the combo of proven box office draws Zac Efron and Anna Kendrick, as well as up-and-comers like Adam DeVine and Aubrey Plaza, as well as being the first out-and-out comedy in three weeks, will lead it to box office glory. Another comedy likely to fare well is the newest Seth Rogen vehicle, Sausage Party. Being the first R-rated animated movies in ages gives this one a touch of uniqueness that other comedies won't have this summer, allowing it to stand out from the pack. Opening the same weekend as those raunchy food items is Florence Foster Jenkins, the newest Meryl Streep film. Streep has had a lot of success with dramas that work as summertime counter-programming (see: The Devil Wears Prada, Julia & Julia and Hope Springs) and this has a good shot at contiuing that streak.

Later on in August one can find the weekend before Labor Day, which delivers two films that seem likely to thrive based on how they're aiming to satiate audiences that are underserved in the summertime. Don't Breathe, which already generated plenty of buzz out of SXSW, will be the first new horror film in a month while boxing drama Hands Of Stone should provide the sort of inspirational sports film that Creed and Southpaw proved last year still bring in the crowds, Finally, Pete's Dragon is the newest live-action adaptation of a beloved Disney film, and while Pete and Elliot The Dragon don't carry anywhere near the brand name recognition as, say, The Jungle Book or Alice In Wonderland, the concept of "a boy and his dragon" should work well on its own merits in terms of marketing to likely generate plenty of profits.

Wild Cards
There are some movies that one can tell from the get-go are either box office duds or hits...and then there are films like these, which, for a number of reasons, really could go either way. One such film is The BFG, which will debut in between the two most high-profile family movies of the summer (it opens two weeks after Finding Dory and a week prior to The Secret Life Of Pets) and it's hard to tell if it can stand-out, though it should be noted that it's never wise to underestimate Steven Spielberg. It's also hard to tell if The Conjuring 2 can replicate the success of its predecessor despite its solid marketing effort thus far, especially since the goodwill of the first Conjuring may have been used up on the more poorly received spin-off Annabelle.

Matthew McConaughey returns to American movie theaters for the first time since November 2014 with Free State Of Jones, a Civil War-set drama that does have McConaughey in the mode audiences seem to like him best in (battle-worn but inspirational), but it's hard to tell if it can stand out in the crowded 4th of July marketplace. Meanwhile, The Angry Birds Movie gets to be the first family movie of the summer, though the marketing for it so far has come across as more derivative than anything else and even kids might find this to be too much of a blatant piece of marketing. George Clooney, looking to rebound after box office dud Tomorrowland, stars in the early May drama Money Monster, which has an attention-grabbing trailer and could work as solid counter-programming to the likes of Captain America: Civil War. Being an adult-skewing drama though, this one's gonna live or die on reviews, and if those fail to be really good, it could struggle at the box office.

While Warner Bros./New Line Cinema struck it out of the ballpark with releasing an original horror movie in July back in 2013 with The Conjuring, they had far far less success with The Gallows last summer, though the tiny budget on the film meant it still turned a decent profit. Whether Lights Out will be more on the order of The Conjuring or The Gallows at the domestic box office at this point is anyone's guess. Bad Moms is also tricky to predict at this point simply because there's no marketing (sans a couple of still photos from it) out yet, though it is worth noting footage from it did go over well at the annual movie theater owner convention CinemaCon a few weeks back. Michael Keatons recent resurgence, as well as revolving around one of the biggest fast food chains on the planet may give The Founder a late summer boost, but there's a surprisingly large amount of dramas opening up in August that may limit its box office potential. Finally, the newest film from animation studio LAIKA, entitled Kubo And The Two Strings, arrives in mid-August. It's got a more distinctive visual look and bigger names in its cast than the previous LAIKA feature, The Boxtrolls, though opening just a week after Pete's Dragon could make it an also-ran at the box office.

Potential Box Office Misfires
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows is likely to follow the box office path of fellow sequels to live-action adaptations of beloved cartoons like The Smurfs 2 and Garfield 2. These movies fall off once the sequels roll around because the one gimmick of the original (Look! Characters you have nostalgia for romping around in the real world!) has been used up. TMNT 2 is trying to counter this by incorporating fan favorite characters like Casey Jones, Krang and Bebop & Rocksteady, but it's doubtful that's enough to stop the bleeding. Meanwhile, Warcraft has been on shaky ground for awhile, with its Comic-Con presentation last summer getting a lukewarm response and the viability of World Of Warcraft being questionable. But thanks to a bizzarely inept final trailer, it looks like the marketing for Warcraft isn't going to be where it needs to be to make it stand out in the crowded field of summer 2016 blockbusters.

Can The Legend Of Tarzan strike box office gold for the legendary man in a loincloth? This one does have the advantage of everyone on the planet knowing who Tarzan is, but early trailers haven't gotten a notewrothy response and competition from Independence Day 2 over the 4th of July holiday won't help things. Meanwhile, the first posters and trailers for Ben-Hur do not make it stand out one bit and this one seems almost destined to be a box office misstep. Ditto for Now You See Me 2, a follow-up to a 2013 sleeper hit that didn't really leave a major pop culture impression. There's not much in the way of really captivating new plot points and characters in the trailers, so it's doubtful Now You See Me 2 pulls off box office magic.

Ice Age: Collision Course will almost certainly fall way short of its predecessors domestically, thanks to steep competition from The Secret Life Of Petes and the middling reception of the last Ice Age movie, though unlike the other films in this column it'll still almost certainly make big bucks internationally. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping is guaranteed to surpass (maybe even double) the domestic gross of the last Lonely Island movie, Hot Rod, but it's doubtful it's more off-brand style of humor appeals to general moviegoers. Another comedy that's likely to struggle at the domestic box office is War Dogs, which carries a number of well-known actors (specifically Miles Teller, Jonah Hill, Bradley Cooper) but is the sort of darker comedy that doesn't tend to fare well at the box office.
With so many options for family moviegoers this summer (there's ten family movies planned to be released between the first weekend of May and Labor Day), Nine Lives, with its trailer that feels more like a parody ad that would play before Tropic Thunder, will be at the back of the pack. And while Jason Statham got a major boost in his profile last year appearing in box office hits like Furious 7 and Spy, that's unlikely to translate into much interest for his newest film, The Mechanic: Ressurection, a sequel to a mostly forgotten 2011 action/thriller.

Holiday 2015 Box Office Predictions (PART TWO)

Yesterday, I looked at the first five of the ten movies going into wide release over the next three weeks over the holidays. Now, let's look at the remaining five features, shall we?

Holiday 2015 Box Office Predictions (PART ONE)

The holiday season always brings a bevy of new films to movie theaters across the country, so, hey, why not, just for fun, we take a look at how these new features may fare at box office? Yes, we all know the new Star Wars adventure will rake up big bucks, but what about In The Heart Of The Sea or The Big Short or Daddy's Home? The financial fates of those films is less clear, so I'm here to offer my predictions on how those will do!

Just a heads up, this is part one of these box office predictions. There are ten wide releases coming out over the next three weeks (I'm counting the expansions into wide release that The Big Short and The Danish Girl will undergo on Christmas Day), so today I'll look at the five closest to release films and then tomorrow I'll look at the remaining five features. Sound good? Alright then, on with the show!

December 11th
In The Heart Of The Sea
Warner Bros. moving this one from its original March 2015 perch to a December 2015 date was deemed a curious tactic by many once it happened, especially since the marketing for the film was already well underway. In The Heart Of The Sea will likely drum up solid, though not extraordinary business once it opens up, with the best box office comparison for this one maybe being Everest. Both are "men-enduring-the-elements" films, though Everest had a far more famous location at the center of its marketing (Mt. Everest of course), it also burned off demand with a one week play in IMAX 3D before debuting to $13.2 million in its first weekend in wide release. A similar number will likely occur for In The Heart Of The Sea, which, while dealing with far lesser known true story elements, won't burn off demand with a one week stay in IMAX 3D locations, which should help it match the opening weekend of Everest.

Opening Weekend: $14 million
Total Gross: $65 million

December 18th
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
So, card's on the table, laying it all out there...I'm gonna wager Star Wars: The Force Awakens doesn't break the opening weekend record set by Jurassic World.

Could I be wrong on this? Hell yeah. If any franchise is gonna prove anyone wrong, it's Star Wars, king of subverting expectations (sometimes for good, sometimes for bad). But December releases typically act far different than summertime fare, with grosses being more spaced out thanks to people being off for extended periods of time for the holidays. This leads to movies sticking around a bit longer, with films like current biggest December opening weekend The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey turning an $84 million into a $303 million domestic haul. There's also the fact that inclement weather may damper its grosses, as Avatar (which opened on this exact date six years ago) experienced massive dips in major cities like Baltimore and Washington D.C. from Friday to Saturday of 75 and 86 percent, respectively, thanks to bad weather.

All that being said, this is still gonna easily become the first December release of all-time to make over $100 million in its opening weekend and it should also have no trouble at all soaring past $150 million. Disney has done a great job mining peoples nostalgia while promising plenty of new characters and adventures, and if reviews turn out to be positive, that could only add to the deafening hype surround the feature.

Opening Weekend: $183 million
Total Gross: $710 million

Sisters
While opening against Star Wars: The Force Awakens might sound foolhardy, Sisters is actually pretty damn smart counterprogramming, as both films serve different audiences. Moviegoers looking for more action-packed fare will have Star Wars, while those looking for a move overtly humorous feature will have the R-rated Sisters. Interestingly, this film marks one of the most high profile films for both Tina Fey and Amy Poehler yet, the duo not having worked together in a film since Baby Mama and since then the two have mostly done family films (Poehler has done two of the Alvin And The Chipmunks sequels and Inside Out, Fey has been busy with MegaMind and Muppets Most Wanted), but their work together on the Golden Globes and on SNL has certainly cemented them as a beloved duo, and the prospect of seeing them work together in a new film will likely hold lots of appeal. Toss in a marketing campaign that's brought out some memorable gags, and I'm going gutsy with this one and predicting it'll be the sleeper hit of the Christmas season.
Opening Weekend: $25 million
Total Gross: $120 million

Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Yeah, the bloom is off the rose for this franchise. The first Alvin And The Chipmunks film had the novelty (if you could call it that) of seeing these well-known pop culture icons in the "real" world, while the sequel brought female counterparts to the table. The third entry already saw a major dip in its domestic gross (a sharp 40% drop from $219 million to $133 million), and after a four year break, this new chipmunk tale will doubtlessly see another domestic box office tumble. No compelling new plot details, gags, characters or even musical covers are presented in the trailers, and with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Good Dinosaur out in the marketplace, parents have other places to turn for family friendly entertainment.
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Total Gross: $60 million

December 23rd
The Big Short
Trying to get a head start on fellow Christmas Day dramas Joy and Concussion by opening two days before Christmas is The Big Short, which is unlikely to find mainstream box office success despite the presence of four big name stars (none of whom are without box office blemishes of course). It's premise dealing with Wall Street and the 2007 Financial Crisis is unlikely to appeal to conventional moviegoers looking for more upbeat and kinetic entertainment over the holidays. Luckily, this one wasn't too costly (this one has a $28 million budget), and its early reviews are extremely positive, meaning it may have legs at the box office.

Opening Weekend: $9.6 million ($11.8 million over its first five days)
Total Gross: $44 million

Come back tomorrow when I'll be looking at the other five box office releases that'll be unleashed onto the populace on Christmas Day!

Straight Outta Compton To Be Clear Winner Of the Box Office

Sometimes I feel conflicted about predicting who could win the box office, but this ain't one of those times. There's no question Straight Outta Compton will make huge amounts of cash this weekend, thanks to being based on musical figures who have a huge presence in pop culture as well as a marketing effort from Universal Pictures that's made all the right movies at every turn, especially with the films first trailer that put the movie on everyones radar.

How Much Will Fantastic Four Make This Weekend?

Marvels first family returns to the big screen this weekend, hoping to reinvigorate a franchise that's been dormant for eight years. Realizing some audiences might be hesitant to rejoin the Fantastic Four film series that once had scenes like the "Mr. Fantastic dances at his bachelor party" (NEVER FORGET), 20th Century Fox has smartly kept the budget smaller then typical 2015 blockbuster fare at only a meager $120 million cost. This way, the film doesn't need to hit Avengers sized grosses in order to justify that sequel the studio already dated for June 2017.

Will Audiences Choose An Impossible Mission Or A Wacky Vacation?

Two more releases enter the box office fray, looking to close this years July on a high note. The most high profile of those two releases is easily Mission: Impossible- Rogue Nation, the fifth entry in the 19 year old Mission: Impossible saga. Back in December 2011, the fourth Mission: Impossible feature became the second biggest entry in the entire franchise, taking everyone by surprise by grossing $209 million domestically.

Uncertainty Reigns Over This Weekend As Ants, Minions, Video Games And Paper Towns Gun For First Place

It's rare for me to say this, but I truly don't know whose gonna win this weekend. There's numerous times where my predictions for who will be number one don't come to fruition, but most of the time I feel confident enough to say "Here's who I think will be above all other releases this weekend". But this time around, two holdovers and two of this weekends new releases are all gunning for that number one spot.

Will Ant-Man Be Huge Or Minuscule At The Box Office This Weekend?

Let's not mince words for a second; if Ant-Man underperforms this weekend, that's entirely on that movies shoulders. They can't blame the success of Minions for it's shortcomings; just last month a summer blockbuster (Jurassic World) and an animated family movie (Inside Out) managed to coexist peacefully, while past Marvel films have faced even greater competition at the box office (remember when the first Captain America movie managed to beat out the second weekend of the last Harry Potter movie, which had the then biggest opening weekend of all-time?). Like I said, if things don't go solidly for Ant-Man this weekend, there's no one to shift the blame to.

Minions To Take Over Box Office Without Any Difficulty

For the first time in five weeks, a new release will take the top spot at the box office. What release is that you query? Well, obviously, it's Tarsem Singhs newest movie Self/Less....OR IS IT???? Nah, I'm jesting, it's totally gonna be Minions, third entry in the Despicable Me franchise, no question. Those little yellow creatures will handily beat all newcomers and holdovers for a hefty first place showing and will likely become only the fourth animated movie in history to make over $100 million on opening weekend.

Male Strippers Will Make Terminators Say Hasta La Vista To Box Office Glory

Magic Mike was an unexpected sensation when it first opened, and so of course, a sequel has arrived three years later, hoping to capitalize on the positive buzz the first film received. Interestingly, the same weekend the first Magic Mike opened back in 2012, the first Ted was unleashed onto the world, and, well, its sequel sort of kind of capsized at the box office this past weekend. Luckily, things are looking much better for Channing Tatum and the gang than they did for a certain raunchy teddy bear.

Will Ted 2 Be Number One This Weekend?

The first Ted became a Hangover-esque word-of-mouth phenomenon, opening to $54 million and making $218 million in its domestic run. To boot, it also became the rare comedy to make serious coin overseas, generating $330 million in foreign territories. No wonder then that Ted 2 arrives in multiplexes everywhere tomorrow, though it's doubtful it can hit the same heights as its predecessor, at least in its total domestic cume.

This Is Gonna Be An Emotional Weekend For Jurassic World

If you had told me a week ago Jurassic World would have the biggest opening weekend of all-time, I would have called you a madman. Now? It's a fact Jack; the newest film in that dino filled franchise made $208 million in one weekend, enough to dethrone The Avengers as the largest opening weekend for a movie in history. It's all but a certainty that Jurassic World will lead again, the only question is, how much will it make?