Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Box Office Analysis: Let's Predict The Rest of The Summer!! (PART TWO)

Guardians of The Galaxy
This is my most anticipated movie for the rest of the summer, and I must say, Disney is doing an excellent job spreading the word and making sure casual audience members are equally excited about it. Extremely distinctive ads playing up the quirky tone, humor, sci-fi action and big actors (John C. Reilly, Vin Diesel, Glenn Close and Bradley Cooper are in this) have started popping up, and if Disney can keep it up through all of July, than the film should play nicely.

Opening Weekend: $59 million
Total Gross: $180 million

Get On Up
A nice bit of counter-programming to Guardians, this biopic of James Brown has had some effective trailers so far, that make sure to combine the more dramatic parts of Browns life with upbeat moments that match his spunky music. Dramas tend to hold well through August (Julie and Julia, The Help, Eat Pray Love) and this should follow suit, giving Chadwick Boseman his second straight hit and his first $100 million movie as a lead actor.

Opening Weekend: $23 million
Total Gross: $90 million

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
I'm in the minority in that I think this looks like it could be at least just fun to watch, but the main reaction on the internet to it has been overwhelmingly negative. People I've talked to seem to have an OK perception of the film, but regardless of how the trailers are received, this one is gonna get hurt by Guardians of The Galaxy if that one really takes off.

Opening Weekend: $34 million
Total Gross: $100 million

The Hundred Foot Journey
It's interesting to me that the two major releases for the second weekend of August are likely to be hurt by movies being released the week prior that target the exact same audience. This one, featuring Helen Mirren as chef, is geared to be the big adult drama of the month, but Get On Up will not only be already released with that exact mission in mind, but also have a more compelling premise to work with. This won't flop, but I'd be amazed if it broke out.

Opening Weekend: $13 million
Total Gross: $55 million

The Expendables 3
This franchise has never hit huge numbers here, but has held steady, with the first two movies hitting a respectable average box office gross of $93 million. That trend should continue with this installment, which adds Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford and Wesley Snipes for more mayhem. The PG-13 rating the film is aiming for may turn off some viewers, but it's low key approach differentiates it from the months first two tentpoles, leaving this room to perform within the respectable heights of its predecessors.

Opening Weekend: $27 million
Total Gross: $80 million

Let's Be Cops
Could this be the big sleeper hit comedy of the summer (think We're The Millers)? Eh, I don't think so. The trailers just aren't filled with that many big humorous moments, but a lack of big comedy releases this month at least means it'll hold alright.

Opening Weekend: $11 million ($16 million five-day)
Total Gross: $45 million

As Above, So Below
There's two horror movies opening over Labor Day (I'm only gonna cover one of them), but until then, this horror flick about hell beneath Paris will have to suffice. Trailers look creepy, and it's premise is unique enough to stand out from the crowd. Still, the whole "Found-footage" thing may turn off some people, though it'll probably still open nicely and then drop off humongously.

Opening Weekend: $24 million
Total Gross: $53 million

The Giver
The Weinstein Company is going after the YA market again by adapting this well known novel into a film, and loading the cast with A-listers like Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep. Those two will definitely help attract casual audience members, though the book isn't quite as famous among teen readers as, say, Divergent, which could hurt it.

Opening Weekend: $28 million
Total Gross: $85 million 

Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
This sequel has been long-awaited by its fans, but for general audiences, it may seem more bewildering than exciting that a sequel is arriving 9 years later. A bigger cast (Josh Brolin, Joseph Gordon-Levitt) should keep it from cratering like past Dimension sequels (think Scream 4, Spy Kids 4), but I'm not sure this one can do really notable business.

Opening Weekend: $24 million
Total Gross: $60 million

If I Stay
Ah, a nice romance movie to close off the summer. This one takes a cue from The Fault In Our Stars and makes a more dramatic scenario for it's female protagonist to struggle with, which should play nicely with women. Still, the book doesn't feel that beloved to me, so this should be a middle of the road performer.

Opening Weekend: $19 million
Total Gross: $48 million

The Loft
James Marsden leads a nice ensemble cast in this horror flick, which despite being released in two months, still has no trailer or poster. That makes me think this may get a date shift shortly, but regardless, if it does stick with its Labor Day, which has been kind to horror films in the past, it could still find a nice financial outcome.

Opening Weekend: $17 million
Total Gross: $37 million

No comments:

Post a Comment