Thursday, June 12, 2014

Box Office Predictions: Make Your Choice...Dragons or Drugs?

Jonah Hills agent must be feeling very content now, as his client prepares to feature heavily in both of this weeks new releases that are likely each gonna top $50 million. The main question on everyones mind right now is which one will come out triumphant?

To be perfectly honest, I think my fellow box office pundits are underestimating the appeal of How To Train Your Dragon 2, a family movie that's gotten great reviews, is a sequel to a beloved feature and has gotten excellent promotion. After all, if Madagascar 3 (a great movie by the way) managed to hit $60 million in early June without Fathers Day to boost grosses, then surely How To Train Your Dragon 2 can hit similar heights. I'm gonna go gutsy on this one and say $72 million.

And then there's 22 Jump Street, which is gonna be huge, but will likely relinquish first place to those mighty dragons. The Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum feature has generated lots of interest, and should sizably increase over it's predecessor. The only thing left to ponder is how high it can go, since many other comedy sequels (like The Hangover Part II and Anchorman 2) make for poor comparisons since they didn't open on Friday. I'm gonna go with $58 million here. Just feels like the marketplace is ready for a major comedy like this.

As for our holdovers, The Fault In Our Stars should have a 70% plunge on Friday, but will stabilize over the weekend and have a fine drop of around 50%. Edge of Tomorrow on the other hand might have trouble retaining leverage, since 22 Jump Street is angling right for its primary audience. Look for that one to lose a little over 55% as the well reviewed action flick looks to overseas grosses to help make it profitable.

Below are not only my predictions for the Box Office Top 5, but also my opening weekend and total gross predictions for this weeks new releases.

How To Train Your Dragon 2
Opening Weekend: $72 million
Total Gross: $265 million

22 Jump Street:
Opening Weekend: $58 million
Total Gross: $175 million

1) How To Train Your Dragon 2: $72 million
2) 22 Jump Street: $58 million
3) The Fault In Our Stars: $23 million
4) Maleficent: $16 million
5) Edge of Tomorrow: $12 million

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