Thursday, June 5, 2014

Box Office Predictions: Can Tom Cruise Conquer The Stars?

In Box Office Predictions, I take a look at the forthcoming weekend and see how new releases and holdovers will fare.

As late as 10 years ago, a summertime Tom Cruise tentpole could be guaranteed to be one of the biggest films of not just the season, but also the year. Since those days, he's been extremely more hit and miss, with his only $100 million features coming from Mission Impossible and a (hilarious I might add) cameo in a Ben Stiller film. Edge of Tomorrow has been dogged by both the press and audience members ever since it's first trailer came out, but extremely positive reviews seem to be turning the tide for the movie. I doubt it can all of a sudden churn even an Oblivion sized opening, but I'll be daring and say this thing just barely cracks $30 million.

But let's move onto the main attraction of the week; The Fault In Our Stars. The movie has a huge fanbase across all age demographics, not to mention it being one of the few movies this summer aimed squarely at women will make it a high priority for many audience members. As if all this buzz couldn't get higher, Fandango is even reporting it's outselling The Vow, which debuted to $41 million in February 2012. Fandango can be extremely hit or miss when it comes to predicting box office (remember when Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2 was supposed to beat Wreck-It Ralph by their standards?), but that sounds like an easy figure to match or even easily beat.

The interesting thing to ponder is how this feature can actually go. In the category of romantic dramas on Box Office Mojo, the highest is Pearl Harbor with $59 million, and then last year's The Great Gatsby with exactly $50 million. That actually seems like a good comparison, since The Fault In Our Stars is also a Summertime romantic drama based on a wildly successful book. I'll go safe and say $47 million right now, but I'll also say it'll have great legs throughout the rest of the summer.

Last weekends champ Maleficent has to deal with the juggernaut that is The Fault In Our Stars in it's second weekend, a juggernaut that'll directly conflict with Maleficents primary female audience. I doubt it'll plummet as hard as fellow May tentpoles Godzilla and X-Men: Days of Future Past, but it'll definitely fall harder than Oz: The Great And Powerful and Alice In Wonderland (Which dipped 48% and 46%). A 55% plunge seems about right, which would result in a respectable $31 million weekend.

Also, Chef is going into over 1300 theaters this weekend. Promotions been minimal for the movie, and adults might wind up being pre-occupied with Fault In Our Stars. Still, it'll fill a nice void over the next few weeks as the only artsy movie around, so look for it to have a decent $2.4 million weekend and then hang around for the rest of the month.

Here's my opening weekend and final total predictions for the weekends two new releases, as well as my predictions for the forthcoming weekends Top 5 spots.

The Fault In Our Stars:
Opening Weekend: $47 million
Total Gross: $155 million

Edge of Tomorrow:
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total Gross: $70 million

1. The Fault In Our Stars: $47 million
2. Maleficent: $31 million
3. Edge of Tomorrow: $30 million
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past: $19 million
5. A Million Ways To Die In The West: $9 million

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