Monday, June 23, 2014

Box Office Analysis: Let's Predict The Rest of The Summer!! (PART ONE)

Eight weeks into the summer, we've seen hits (Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Fault In Our Stars) and duds (Blended, A Million Ways to Die In The West). Utilizing the performances so far, I've decided to take a gander at the upcoming features coming out between now and Labor Day and predict their opening weekend and final grosses, and sprinkle some analysis in there too. Not every movie is covered (I'm sure some sleeper hit that'll eventually make big bucks isn't on here), but regardless, here's my predictions for the tidal wave of notable releases left this summer, split into two parts. I'll be bold and daring and put up a Box Office Analysis article on a Tuesday, in order to cover all the releases coming out in August.

Transformers: Age of Extinction:
This sites gonna go into Transformers overload over the next week, as I'll be looking at this movies financial future in greater detail on this weeks box office prediction column, not to mention I'll have a review up on Friday (going to the Midnight showing of this one!) and I'll be doing a Franchise Frenzy over all the Transformers movies. For now though, here's my current predictions for it's opening and total.
Opening Weekend: $120 million
Total Gross: $300 million

The trailers look awful, but Melissa McCarthy has pretty much been perfect at the box office so far. Opening on Wednesday will dilute its opening weekend some, but it should still manage a solid, but lower, grosser for McCarthy.
Opening Weekend: $24 million ($40 million five-day opening)
Total Gross: $105 million

Deliver Us From Evil:
We haven't actually had any horror films so far this summer, so Deliver Us From Evil could be the one-eyed king in the land of the blind, if you will. Trailers seem scary enough, and director Scott Derriksons recent deal to direct Marvel movie Dr. Strange has put him on the radar in a big way. Quality will be a big deciding factor (if it's even just average, it'll likely plummet), but this should still be nice counter-programming against big-budget action films in July.
Opening Weekend: $23 million ($42 million five-day opening)
Total Gross: $100 million

Dawn of The Planet of The Apes:
Sequels have been hit-or-miss this summer, with new Spider-Man and How To Train Your Dragon adventures falling short, while this new X-Men movie has a legitimate chance at being the biggest one of its franchise. I have a feeling this new one will be improving steadily over it's predecessor, as ads clearly convey the story moving forward in an exciting way. Also, there are monkeys with guns, which means this should be the biggest movie of all-time, but I'll be a bit more conservative in my predictions.
Opening Weekend: $76 million
Total Gross:  $230 million

Sex Tape:
Unless they have Seth Macfarlane in 'em, R-rated comedies have had a dandy summer, with Neighbors and 22 Jump Street making massive amounts of cash. But will Cameron Diaz and Jason Segal continue that streak? My guess: kinda. Diaz is actually reliable when it comes to comedies, with Bad Teacher squeaking past $100 million and, to my amazement, The Other Woman somehow got to make $83 million. This one has mention trailers and commercials that aren't particularly hilarious, but a plot just self-explanatory enough to make it appealing to casual audiences. Let's keep an eye on this one.
Opening Weekend: $27 million
Total Gross: $78 million

The Purge: Anarchy:
In my professional opinion, The Purge was an OK, just sort of there horror movie. It was aggravatingly stupid in some regards, but it's unique premise and Ethan Hawke were enough to make it mostly watchable. This sequel ditches the cast of the first movie for a Frank Grillo led cast that takes place in a city. Universal is doing a great job with the promotional materials in conveying a larger world for the lawless mayhem to occur, which should get people to come back and enjoy more Purge shenanigans. I doubt it'll break records, but this should still enjoy a nice (if short-lived) box office life.
Opening Weekend: $39 million
Total Gross: $78 million

Planes: Fire and Rescue:
There's really not that much for families this summer, which should make the odds of this Disney sequel becoming a hit pretty great, right? Honestly, they really don't. The first one is reviled by both critics and audiences; it stuck around at the box office solely because of the dearth of big movies in September. This one won't have that advantage, with late July and August overflowing with major releases. Still, no family movies in sight (Earth To Echo won't be huge, and How To Train Your Dragon 2 will be in its 6th weekend at this point) will at least keep this from flopping
Opening Weekend: $20 million
Total Gross: $70 million

This one keeps me up at night in terms of predicting its box office. Could it surprise us all, or will it wind up being a major miss for Dwayne Johnson? For some reason, this one reminds me of Paramounts (the studio handling Hercules) 2012 film World War Z, which had poorly received trailers, and was written off by box office analysts only to become a big hit. That one, though, had the joy of seeing dramatic actor Brad Pitt fighting zombies, while Dwayne has done plenty of action films in the past. We'll see, but for now, this one has me worried.
Opening Weekend: $26 million
Total Gross: $67 million

I'm calling it; this one is gonna be the big surprise action movie of the summer. Scarlett Johansson finally gets the chance to headline her own action movie (with reliable box office draw Morgan Freeman along for the ride), with an R-rating promising she'll unleash all the carnage she can possible concoct. Plus, that rating means it can seperate itself from all of the big budget PG-13 movies that get released in August like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, meaning it can stick around for a while.
Opening Weekend: $39 million
Total Gross: $120 million

Tomorrow...Guardians, Turtles and Sylvester Stallone shall be predicted! 

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