Will Ted 2 Be Number One This Weekend?

The first Ted became a Hangover-esque word-of-mouth phenomenon, opening to $54 million and making $218 million in its domestic run. To boot, it also became the rare comedy to make serious coin overseas, generating $330 million in foreign territories. No wonder then that Ted 2 arrives in multiplexes everywhere tomorrow, though it's doubtful it can hit the same heights as its predecessor, at least in its total domestic cume.


Recent comedy sequels The Hangover: Part II and 22 Jump Street promoted themselves as being set in new distinct environments (Thailand and college respectively) where characters audiences knew and loved could thrive. Ted 2 has been a bit more scrambled in its marketing; some ads have focused on Teds desire to have a kid, others have centered on his desire to be considered a person by the government. Both scenarios don't deliver too many notable gags in the commercials (though admittedly there are one or two memorable lines in there), which will limit things considerably.

Still, the first Ted has a sizable following, and though it's pretty much assured to not increase immensely over the first one like 22 Jump Street did to its predecessor, it'll make up for any domestic losses with a likely sizable overseas haul. I'll say this one this increases just under 20% over the original Ted for opening weekend, but it'll make far less in the long haul.

Max is another cute and cuddly critter hoping to break out this weekend, though expectations are much smaller for the movie, which has been shifted around Warner Bros. 2015 schedule quite a bit before settling on this 4th of July opening. That feels appropriate given the prominent role the Military plays in the movie, and I can't imagine this one cost more than $20 million to make. About $12-14 million for the weekend feels about right, and it should play well throughout July.

The champion of the box office for the last two weeks, Jurassic World, will fall this weekend, though its massive box office grosses mean Universal likely just doesn't care. Last weekend got an extra boost from Fathers Day, which means there will be a bit harsher of a dip this time around, but it'll certainly hold better than Man of Steel and Green Lantern, which lost 65 and 66% respectively in their post Fathers Day weekends.

And of course, let's not forget about Inside Out, the newest PIXAR sensation that surpassed all box office expectations last weekend that's had enormously successful weekday numbers indicating tremendously positive word-of-mouth. This one should hold better in its second weekend than past PIXAR films like WALL-E and Brave, which both lost 48% in their second weekends. A dip more along the lines of the 44% drop of Monsters University should be in the cards, and it may even drop slightly less than that 2013 PIXAR feature.

Below you can see my opening weekend and total gross predictions for this weekends new releases as well as my projections for this weekends top 5.

Ted 2
Opening Weekend: $62 million
Total Gross: $165 million

Max
Opening Weekend: $14 million
Total Gross: $45 million

1) Ted 2: $62 million
2) Inside Out: $51 million
3) Jurassic World: $48 million
4) Max: $14 million
5) Spy: $8.7 million