First off, Magic Mike made about half as much money domestically as Ted, meaning there's certainly room for the franchise to go. Also, whereas Seth MacFarlane burned down some bridges with audiences with a poorly received Oscar telecast in 2013 and A Million Ways To Die In The West last year in between the two Ted movies, Channing Tatum has been keeping the goodwill flowing since the last Magic Mike adventure. The occasional Jupiter Ascending aside, the dude has starred in box office smash 22 Jump Street and Foxcatcher, which received a large number of Oscar nominations last year. Needless to say, people aren't sick of the Tatum they way they most certainly are of MacFarlane and his shtick, which bodes well for the financial prospects of Magic Mike XXL.
This weekend is an interesting one, because 4th of July occurs on the most lucrative day of the weekend, Saturday. People tend to stay home for BBQs and such instead of heading to the cinema on Independence Day, so that'll dilute weekend grosses a bit for all the movies in this frame. For Magic Mike XXL, it certainly make things unpredictable in terms of projecting just how much money it'll make this weekend. However, I'll say it makes a ton of cash, maybe $15-17 million, on opening day, only slightly lower than the original. It'll probably be similarly just behind the original in terms of opening weekend, but that's only because it'll burn off demand on Wednesday & Thursday.
Terminator: Genisys, on the other hand, doesn't have a prayer this weekend, as a middling marketing push and abysmal buzz will translate to a pitiful opening, likely at number 3 this weekend behind Magic Mike XXL and Inside Out. I predicted a few months back that Terminator: Genisys would be one of the box office bombs of the summer, and it looks like that prediction will come to fruition. There just hasn't been that much going for this one, and it doesn't even have the nostalgia factor to boost its grosses like Jurassic World. After all, in the 14 years since the last Jurassic Park adventure, we've gotten two Terminator movies that certainly sullied the brand name of the franchise.
In addition to those two new openers, Inside Out and Jurassic World will still be generating $20+ million at the box office. Of the two movies, Inside Out almost certainly will have the better dip and bigger box office gross. The last 4th of July landed on a Saturday, another PIXAR movie was out in the marketplace, Up, and it lost 50% over this frame. However, in addition to Saturday grosses being diluted, a new family movie, Ice Age: Dawn of The Dinosaurs, was entering the box office. With no new family movie competition to speak of, I'll say Inside Out only loses 42% this frame for a $30 million third weekend.
Jurassic World will probably fall harder this go around, but its mammoth grosses so far means Universal will take such a dip in stride. Look for it to lose about 52-54% in its fourth term in the box office, which is still a much better hold than Ted 2, which, thanks to poor word of mouth alone, will suffer a harsh fall. I'll say this one loses about 60% for the frame, for a $13.7 million second weekend. Finally Me And Earl And The Dying Girl will go into wide release this weekend, although the films middling numbers in limited release certainly make me ponder if going wide for this one is a smart idea. Still, it'll probably fare decently, though it'd be shocking if it did more than $2,000 per theater.
Below are my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends new releases, as well as my projections for this weekends box office top 5.
Magic Mike XXL
Opening Weekend: $35 million ($58 million for the five-day frame)
Total Gross: $135 million
Terminator: Genisys
Opening Weekend: $28 million ($46 million for the five-day frame)
Total Gross: $100 million
1) Magic Mike XXL: $35 million
2) Inside Out: $30 million
3) Terminator: Genisys: $28 million
4) Jurassic World: $25.5 million
5) Ted 2: $13.7 million
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