Thursday, February 19, 2015

Fifty Shades Of Grey Will Continue To Be The Box Office Winner This Weekend (Box Office Predictions)

It's really no question of who wins this forthcoming box office frame; Fifty Shades of Grey's record breaking $85 million opening weekend means it'll have no trouble securing a lead over the three new releases this weekend. Still, let's take a gander at those aforementioned newcomers, as there's certainly some variety in terms of genre's and stories among them.

Paramount Pictures moved the MGM comedy Hot Tub Time Machine 2 from Christmas 2014 to February 2015 a while, a smart decision that means it won't get overwhelmed by the multitude of features that typically open at Christmastime. Still, that doesn't mean the films a guaranteed moneymaker, especially considering that the first film isn't exactly beloved, not to mention how ads have just been a mish-mash of various time travel tomfoolery instead of selling a plot. Those ads do sell a few decent gags though, and a dearth of comedies in the marketplace should get this on to or just above $15 million for the weekend.

McFarland USA is the newest inspirational sports movie from Disney, which revived this subgenre for the studio last May with Million Dollar Arm after a four-and-a-half year hiatus. That Jon Hamm baseball film made only $36.4 million after opening to $10.5 million, and it's hard to see McFarland faring better. It has a bigger star (Kevin Costner), but focuses around a more niche sport, running. It likely won't debut too much lower than that aforementioned Jon Hamm film, but I don't see it beating it's opening weekend.

CBS Films returns from the dead with The DUFF, the film that marks a year long deal for the studio for it's 2015 films to be distributed by Lionsgate. This won't be a monumental start to that deal though, as this films really not coming off as that compelling in it's ads or basic premise. The lack of major stars here (Mae Whitman should be a major star, but that's a story for another day) don't help matters, though it should get past $10 million if only due to the rampant marketing that's done a good job of creating awareness for the film among the crucial (for this film) teenage demographic.

Of course, all of those films will be submissive to Christian Grey, as he continues to dominate the box office and tie up all competitors (I'll stop now.) The films gonna plummet, though thanks to Thursday night numbers factoring into it's overall weekend slightly less than usual, it can probably expect something only in the low 60%'s range. Kingsman: The Secret Service, the other impressive newcomer from last weekend, won't be directly affected by any of these titles since none of them are action features and should build on good word-of-mouth to a solid second weekend haul.

Below, you can see my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends newcomers as well as my predictions for this weekends top five films.

Hot Tub Time Machine 2
Opening Weekend: $16 million
Total Gross: $42 million

McFarland USA
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Total Gross: $28 million

Opening Weekend: $11 million
Total Gross: $33 million

1) Fifty Shades Of Grey: $31.4 million
2) Kingsman: The Secret Service: $19.4 million
3) The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water: $19 million
4) Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $16 million
5) The DUFF: $11 million

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