Friday, July 18, 2014

Box Office Predictions: Three New Releases Dare To Challenge The Apes

After some quiet weekends at the box office (save for an impressive showing from Dawn of the Planet of The Apes last weekend), three new releases pop up this weekend to try to make some cash. Who'll win? Can anyone top Caesar? Read on to find out!

I'm thinking Dawn of The Planet of The Apes holds on to number One, with a small 52% dip. Word of mouth is excellent on this one, and for good reason! However, The Purge: Anarchy is gonna come super duper close. This horror sequel has been marketed endlessly, especially on social media, and since Deliver Us From Evil failed to make any waves, the marketplace is wide open for a successful horror film. Mixed reviews may turn away some viewers, but I think this should just manage to top its predecessor.

Another sequel to a 2013 film is making its way to cinemas this weekend, inevitable Best Picture nominee Planes: Fire And Rescue. Family movies have been hit-or-miss this summer, with Maleficent doing great business and How To Train Your Dragon 2 doing only OK, but neither one will make over $5 million this weekend. Unfortunately, Planes: Fire and Rescue just doesn't have all-ages appeal in its marketing like Frozen or The Lego Movie, so it won't be break box office records. Still, I'm gonna say a $26 million opening, which would be a nice 25% increase over the original.

And finally, the dark horse of the weekend, Sex Tape. I say dark horse because, while an R-rated comedy starring Cameron Diaz and Jason Segal would normally be a slam-dunk, this ones getting truly awful reviews, I mean, abysmal stuff here, worse than even the reviews for Trans4mers (which only makes me wanna see it more, since I gotta find out if it's truly that bad!) That's gonna deter some people, especially older viewers, but both lead actors do have a nice track record when it comes to comedies (Diaz more than Segal), which should get it past $20 million. It could go higher, but I'm thinking not.

On the indie front, Boyhood is expanding into 33 theaters this weekend, which should produce some excellent results, while Zach Braffs newest directorial effort Wish I Was Here is opening in 60 theaters. That's an oddly large amount of locations to open a limited release like this in, but it should also produce an OK opening. It'll probably go wide, oh, I'm thinking somewhere around early August, but middling reviews will probably keep it from breaking out like 2014 indie hits Chef and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Below you can find not only my predictions for this weeks Top 5, but also my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks newcomers.

The Purge: Anarchy
Opening Weekend: $34 million
Total Gross: $70 million

Planes: Fire and Rescue
Opening Weekend: $26 million
Total Gross: $95 million

Sex Tape
Opening Weekend: $21 million
Total Gross: $65 million

1) Dawn of the Planet of The Apes: $35 million
2) The Purge: Anarchy: $34 million
3) Planes: Fire And Rescue: $26 million
4) Sex Tape: $21 million
5) Transformers: Age of Extinction: $8 milion

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