Monday, October 20, 2014

Box Office Analysis: Brad Pitt Looms Over Channing Tatum And Ben Affleck

Box Office Analysis is back from the dead this week, though I'm trying a new format where I take more of a larger look at a number of films at the box office instead of just one particular movie or topic. 



Fury did alright this weekend, making $23 million, a bit under expectations but still a solid opening that's the 10th biggest live-action opening for Brad Pitt. The question now is how it holds up, will it be like Argo or will it sink like a stone? We shall see, though I think it holds up alright and manages $75 million. The Book of Life, the 2nd biggest movie of the weekend, did decent business managing $17 million. We still haven't had a family movie hit $20 million in four months, when How To Train Your Dragon 2 made $48 million, though that'll certainly change when Big Hero 6 opens.

The Best Of Me earns the distinction of having the lowest opening weekend for a Nicholas Sparks adaptation. The films failure isn't that compelling, but it means for its distributor, Relativity Media, is actually kind of interesting. Three years ago, the studio seemed like it was gunning to be one a major studio with releases like Limitless and Immortals. This year though, the studio has had one dud after another, with their highest grossing release being Earth To Echo, which made just $38 million. They've got two more movies for 2014 (which includes Kevin Costner drama Black or White), but it's unlikely to reverse its fortunes.

Gone Girl continued to demonstrate the power of Ben Affleck nudity, as well as excellent acting, writing and directing, by losing only 32% for a fantastic total of $107 million. Dracula Untold dropped 58% this frame for a domestic total of $40 million. How this will affect the Charlie Hunnam starring reboot of Creature From The Black Lagoon is unknown. The Judge lost 39% for the weekend and has made $26 million. I'm thinking it hits $40 million for a total gross, or half of what The Avengers made in one day. Alexander and The Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day held well against newcomer family feature The Book of Life and only dipped 34%. The super cheap flick should have no trouble hitting $50, maybe even $60, million.

September releases The Equalizer and The Maze Runner might cut it close, but they held just well enough this weekend for me to say that they should be able to get to $100 million at the domestic box office, good results for Denzel Washington and excellent results for The Maze Runner, since that means it'll have tripled its budget domestically. With so much new family fare around, The Boxtrolls sank like a stone, 59% to be precise, though it should still manage to become one of only seven stop-motion features to ever hit $50 million at the domestic box office.

Birdman and Dear White People did more than well enough for further expansions, especially Birdman with its massive $103,000 per theater average, though I'm curious how well Birdman plays to general audiences. St. Vincent has also been playing well in limited release, which could be an indicator of solid box office when it expands into wide release this weekend. Expanding just barely into wide release, Men, Woman and Children bombed terribly, and it looks like it'll become only the 2nd movie of Adam Sandlers career to not hit $1 million, the other being his first feature Shakes The Clown. Guardians of The Galaxy managed make waves at the box office this weekend, not only staying in the 13th spot in its 12th weekend of release, but also continuing to do great financially in China. It's now the third biggest Marvel movie of all-time worldwide and domestically and will soon become the 2nd biggest movie of 2014. Hooray for raccoons wearing people clothes!

This weekend was nicely up from last year, up 32% from this same weekend last year. All this wonderful business in October has done wonders for the 2014 box office, and with guaranteed hits like Interstellar, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One and 3 The 3 Hobbit on the way, things should continue to be great for 2014 financially.

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