Box Office Analysis: What Will Be Huge In October 2014?

Well, Gone Girl just became the biggest opener of David Finchers career, and Annabelle furthered The Conjuring franchise in a significant manner. But we still have four more weeks of October to week, and tons of new releases to look at it. And while I'll be analyzing these features in more detail in my weekly Box Office Predictions column, let's take a quick peek at the rest of this month as a whole, shall we?

This forthcoming weekend, October 10th, has four new releases attempting to dethrone Gone Girl, and I don't think any of the newbies will be able to do so. The Judge is probably the most high-profile of the weeks new movies, but man, the ads for this one have been inconsistent as hell. Mixed reviews aren't helping matters, though the promise of Robert Duvall and Robert Downey Jr. exchanging banter could be enticing to many audience members. Dracula Untold will try to make an impact as well, though it's muddled marketing has made it impossible for the feature to generate hype.

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day is a new family movie option that will likely fare in a decent manner, though it's lack of appeal to older audiences will limit its potential success. Addicted is the final new release of the weekend, though it's theater count is projected to be only 800, so this one won't be that impactful.

A new Nicholas Spark movie arrives on the weekend of October 17th, and it might do alright considering the drought of films aimed specifically at women in the marketplace.  Fury will likely be the big winner of the weekend, with its large scale marketing highlighting the presence of lovable lead actor Brad Pitt. The Book of Life is the third new release of the weekend, and marks the third family movie to be release over the course of four weeks. This one doesn't feel distinctive enough to break out in a major way, but being the first CGI-animated feature in three months may give it some distinction in a crowded marketplace.

The final new release is a film expanding into nationwide release, Men, Women & Children. The movie performed horribly in limited release this weekend, though the star-studded cast may be enough for Paramount to go forward with its current plans for a wide release launch on this weekend. I would not expect its box office fortunes to change in wide release though.

October 24th mimics its weekend predecessor in that it brings three new releases and a film expanding into nationwide release, John Wick wasn't even on the release date calendar three months ago, but an eye-catching trailer has put it on everyone's radar. I doubt it'll break records or anything, but if Lionsgate continues its effective marketing, it might find a very solid opening. Oujia is more of a toss-up; a new horror movie in October is bound to find some success, but this one hasn't really made an impression in its marketing.

St. Vincent is the expanding release this weekend, and it could surprise. The trailer gets a very positive reaction every time I see it played in theaters, and the cast has got some pretty big names in it, though mixed reviews may get some viewers to skip it. I have no idea what the hell the final movie of the weekend is, but considering 23 Blast is only opening 600 theaters, I doubt I'm not the only one who will be mystified by its existence.

The final weekend of the month lands on Halloween, October 31st. Only two new releases grace this date, one of which feels like a flop in the making. That flop is Before I Go To Sleep, which has a confusing trailer and not much else. The more promising of this weekends new releases is Nightcrawler, one of my most anticipated movies for the rest of 2014. The Jake Gyllenhaal starring film has had some very popular trailers, and if reviews continue to be as good as they are right now, the film might be able to surprise and attract a sizable audience.