Box Office Predictions: Raccoon With Machine Guns Battles Ninja Turtles For Box Office Glory

So Guardians of The Galaxy just blasted off last weekend, shattering all expectations, and frankly, looks like it'll become the biggest movie of the summer. Exceptional. It'll likely dip this weekend, thanks to huge Thursday night grosses last week, but it should manage to beat out four new releases this weekend for the Number One spot at the box office. Let's take a look at Guardians and these four new releases, as well as some new arthouse openings, shall we?

Guardians of The Galaxy is another Marvel Studios phenomenon, and like past movies in this universe, should up decently this weekend. Even with tremendously positive word-of-mouth, and people like me going back to see it again, those massive Thursday night grosses are gonna mean a big plummet on Friday. Luckily, it should rebound over Saturday and Sunday and manage, let's see, I'm thinking a 56% dip. That would actually be the 2nd smallest dip for a summer blockbuster (behind fellow high-quality Summer 2014 blockbuster Dawn of the Planet of The Apes), so the excellent box office run for the Guardians continues unabated.

The biggest of this weeks new releases would love to overthrow Star-Lord for the top of the box office, and while it won't be far behind in 2nd, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles just won't have the power to win the weekend. This new incarnation of the heroes in a half shell has been met with derision by internet commentors for years now, and while I actually thought the second trailer looked pretty good, I freely admit the newest commercials look dire (this one particular joke about Megan Fox being so hot it makes Michelangelos shell tighten is just...no. Don't do that.)

Still, most people who just see the occasional billboard, poster or commercial will likely just shrug their shoulders and assume this is the next inevitable step for the Turtles (they'll also wrongly assume Michael Bay is directing. The director of this one if Johnathan Liebesman, the man who brought us Battle: LA) Smartly, Paramount has been heavily marketing this movie to kids, a demographic that has always embraced the turtles and their antics. Such family-friendly ads don't exactly gel with earlier trailers that were darker, but it's probably a smart move since adult viewers will be turned off by the anemic reviews this is receiving (it's at 26% on Rotten Tomatoes as of the morning of August 7th). A well-known brand name, as well as appealing to a cinematically underserved family audience should get this one to a respectable $37 million or so.

The other three new releases this weekend are much more middling. Warner Bros. is releasing Into The Storm, which by now everyone has already worn out the jokes about how it looks like it's ripping off Sharknado and Twister, so I'll just say this one should, despite having over 3,250 theaters, will probably top out at $17 million.  The Hundred-Foot Journey has Helen Mirren on its side, but it doesn't have the most compelling premise in the world, plus it's getting a weirdly small theater count despite being distributed by Disney. I say this one just squeaks past $10 million. Oh! And the next epic story in the awe-inspiring Step Up saga is unleashed this weekend. Step Up All In looks like it'll have the lowest theater count of any entry in the series, and buzz on this one is non-existent. This one will easily become the lowest grossing entry in the franchise, but I bet it still makes gobs of money overseas.

On the limited release front. James Cameron has a new movie coming out; a documentary called James Camerons Deepsea Challenge 3D. I'd never even heard of the movie before it popped up as one of the movies playing at my local Cinemark Legacy this weekend, but Cameron is a trusted name in the world of film, plus it should have the interest of the aquatic community. What If finally opens this weekend, after having its release plan shuffled a few times. It's going out in 20 theaters before an inevitable wide release where it'll likely find more success. It's getting pretty good reviews, but I doubt it'll do huge business. Finally, while no exact theater count is available at the time of this writing, Boyhood is reportedly entering 500 theaters this weekend. I'll do my routine opening weekend and final gross predictions for it next week when it officially enters wide release, but due to it's expansion and growing buzz, it should enter the Top 10 for the first time.

Below, you can find my predictions for the box office Top 5 this week, as well as my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks new releases.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Total Gross: $100 million

Into The Storm:
Opening Weekend: $17 million
Total Gross: $45 million

Step Up All In:
Opening Weekend: $10.3 million
Total Gross: $27 million

The Hundred-Foot Journey:
Opening Weekend: $10 million
Total Gross: $35 million

What If
Opening Weekend: $200,000
Total Gross: $7 million

1) Guardians of The Galaxy: $43 million
2) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: $38 million
3) Into The Storm: $17 million
4) Step Up All In: $10.3 million
5) The Hundred-Foot Journey: $10 million