What a jam-packed weekend! We got three new releases, plus two holdovers that'll make over $20 million each, plus new updates on the limited release circuit. All of these releases are competing for box offiice glory, and I'm here to predict how they'll fare, so let's get right to it!!
My main question going into this weekend is "Whose gonna wind up No. 1 this weekend?" There's three movies I think could accomplish this feat, so let's start with the only new release of that bunch, The Expendables 3. This sequel has earned weak reviews, but has had a massive marketing campaign highlighting new cast members like Wesley Snipes, Mel Gibson and Harrison Ford. Now, normally movies that are the third in a franchise usually have a financial dip of some kind (The Hangover Part III, Men In Black 3 and Spider-Man 3 namely) However, these Expendables movies haven;' been huge, with the last one hitting only $28 million in its opening weekend.
That's not necessarily a bad thing though, since those movies use their usually competition free mid-August releases to stick around a bit longer than usual. Both of its predecessors did three times their opening weekend, and this one should follow suit. It won't improve or anything, but it'll probably be at about the same level and do more than enough business international to justify another installment.
Last weeks ruling movie Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles could repeat on top. However, it's got extremely mixed word-of-mouth (it only got a B CinemaScore last week, the 2nd worst score of all the summer blockbusters this year, only behind Lucy.) and the weekday numbers seem to indicate the film is losing some steam as the days go by. Although it had a $1.3 million lead over Guardians on Monday, that numbers been shrinking over the week and only had a $200 thousand lead over it on Wednesday. All those factors indicate Turtles is heading for a 60% plunge this weekend, meaning it has the smallest chance of these three movies of hitting No. 1.
Finally, the third movie that could hit the top spot again is also one that previously held a place at No. 1, though it did so two weeks back. Guardians of The Galaxy has held up pretty well during the week, and as noted above, is quickly closing in on those Ninja Turtles. It's far from a guarantee, but there is a chance the film winds up winning again. Since I predicted Guardians over the major newcomer last week, I'll be fair this week and say Expendables 3 wins, but I would not be surprised to see Guardians back on top when the dust settles.
The two other new releases this weekend are a bit more modest. Let's Be Cops has had dismal reviews, but did have an OK opening day of $5.2 million, which adds in the $1.2 million it made at Tuesday night showings. The path ahead for the movie is tricky to predict, but I think the movie doesn't break out. However, it also won't be a slouch, and could hit $20 million over the Friday-Sunday frame if the tide really turns in it's favor.
The Giver is the finale new wide release for the weekend, and it should also be the lowest grossing one of the bunch. This one is based on a well known book that is much much older than the likes of Divergent and Beautiful Creatures. However, the movie appears from its advertising to be updating itself to be more palatable to younger audience.s Ironically, this has only turned off that particular demographic since it looks too much like a Hunger Games knock-off, while deterring older viewers who feel it deviates too much from the book. The two big names involved in the cast (Meryl Streep and Jeff Bridges) should keep it from outright bombing, but that's about it for this one.
Several arthouse movies seem to be expanding into wide release this weekend, three of them to be precise. While no exact theater count is available for it, What If appears to be going down that route, though no exact theater count is available, making it hard to predict its path this weekend. However, exact theaters counts are available for the two other expanding releases this weekend: Boyhood and Magic In The Moonlight. Boyhood has really stuck around these past few weekends and should have a very solid haul in its first weekend in wide release. Hopefully, it does well enough to keep it in theaters through the lucrative Labor Day weekend. Magic In The Moonlight has actually gotten pretty mixed reviews, which will deter some audience members but does have two pretty well known names in lead roles that could convince others to give it a shot. I'd suspect only so-so results for this one, even as it gets one of the wider releases in the history of Woody Allen films.
In terms of new limited releases, we have Frank and Life after Beth, both of which made their debuts at Sundance earlier this year. Frank is being released by Magnolia, meaning a wide release is guaranteed to not happen, though it should find some success in the VOD market. Meanwhile, Life After Beth is a crapshoot considering mixed reception and a cast lacking true blue A-listers (save for John C. Reily in a supporting role of course)
Below, you can find my predictions for the box office Top 5 this week, as well as my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks new releases.
The Expendables 3
Opening Weekend: $27 million
Total Gross: $81 million
Let's Be Cops
Opening Weekend: $18 million ($26.6 million for the five-day total)
Total Gross: $65 million
The Giver
Opening Weekend: $15 million
Total Gross: $40 million
Boyhood
Opening Weekend: $1.8 million
Total Gross: $25 million
Magic In The Moonlight
Opening Weekend: $1.7 million
Total Gross: $10 million
1) The Expendables 3: $27 million
2) Guardians of The Galaxy: $25.5 million
3) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: $25 million
4) Let's Be Cops: $18 million
5) The Giver: $15 million
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