Box Office Predictions: Penguins And Jason Bateman Go Up Against Katniss

Plenty of movies will vie for box office glory over this coming Thanksgiving holiday, as Horrible Bosses 2 and The Penguins of Madagascar expand their franchises while The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One will likely lead the box office again. Add in The Theory of Everything going into wide release, and there's plenty to talk about.

DreamWorks Animation has not had the best two years, with Thanksgiving 2012 release Rise of The Guardians being one of three movies to loses substantial amounts of money for the company in the past 728 days. The Penguins of Madagascar won't be huge victory for DreamWorks, but it should wind up doing decent business. Madagascar is a pretty beloved franchise, with the last one hitting a new box office highs for the series domestically and worldwide, and putting the scene stealing penguins in the spotlight should lead to success.

Still, ads haven't done a great job making the movie stand apart from its predecessors, while mixed reviews will keep some audience members away. I'm thinking a mid-30 million 3 day opening weekend and a high-40 million 5-day opening weekend, a respectable tally for the feature.

Horrible Bosses 2 will try to be the third successful comedy sequel in 2014 (following 22 Jump Street and Dumb And Dumber To) and it should fare well in that endeavor. It made $1 million in Tuesday night screenings number, a number that bodes well for it's opening day. While it's doubtful it makes huge gains over its predecessor like 22 Jump Street, it should have a respectable opening stemming from goodwill from the first movie and a widespread marketing campaign.

Katniss Everdeen came in a bit under expectations last weekend, making a franchise low opening weekend of $121 million. It'll still make gobs of cash over the holiday week, though that won't prevent a dip slightly larger than the one Catching Fire had this time last year. A 59% plunge would be good for a $49 million second weekend, easily winning the weekend.

Holdovers from past weekends should get a nice boost this frame, as the Thanksgiving holidays (primarily Black Friday) will give much smaller than average dips for older titles in the marketplace. Even with those Penguins opening this time around, Big Hero 6 should be able to translate great word of mouth into a minuscule 13% dip. Interstellar should similarly fare well, I'm thinking only a 20% loss. Dumb And Dumber To will attempt to make up for it plummeting this past weekend by doing what I'm projecting is a 22% fall in it's third weekend.

The Theory of Everything expands into wide release this weekend, specifically into 749 theaters. With great reviews and a holiday weekend at it's back, I'm thinking this one manages a $5,000 per theater average for a great $3.7 million wide opening weekend.

Below are my predictions for not only the opening weekend and final grosses for this weekends new releases, but also for this weekends box office top 5.

The Penguins of Madagascar:
Opening Weekend: $34 million (3 Day), $47 million (5-day)
Total Gross: $130 million

Horrible Bosses 2:
Opening Weekend: $31 million (3 Day), $45 million (5-Day)
Total Gross: $100 million

1) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One: $49 million
2) The Penguins of Madagascar: $34 million
3) Horrible Bosses 2: $31 million
4) Big Hero 6: $17.5 million
5) Interstellar: $12.2 million