We've got two new nationwide releases this weekend, Dumb And Dumber To and Beyond The Lights. The former is likely to be the victor of the new releases, though it'll likely fall short of ultimate glory. Comedy sequels are becoming more and more prominent for studios, with The Hangover II, Anchorman 2 and 22 Jump Street all doing better than the original in terms of financials. Horrible Bosses 2, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 and Ted 2 are on the way in the next seven months, but first, the newest Dumb and Dumber adventure hits theaters.
The original Harry and Lloyd adventure is really popular, and this seems like a return to the kind of comedy audiences like seeing Jim Carrey (not Mr. Popper's Penguins, thank you very much). Marketing has been prominent and makes sure to balance out new gags with callbacks to the original. I don't think it can hit number one, but I actually do think this one could hit exactly $30 million. Whether or not it becomes Jim Carrey's first $100 million grossing film in six years will depend on word-of-mouth.
Beyond The Lights is getting a smaller than usual theater count of only 1600 locations, but good reviews and appeal to the date night crowd could turn this one into a minor sleeper hit. This one flew totally under my radar, so I do wonder how truly effective the marketing's been, but I think this could still get to, oh, et's say....$6 million?
Last weeks champion, Big Hero 6, should have no trouble hanging onto it's title of king of the box office. Baymax and co. have held fantastically throughout the week thanks to holidays like Veteran's Day, and that should pave the way for a nice second weekend hold. Walt Disney Animation Studios last film to open in the first weekend of November, Wreck-It Ralph, lost 32% in this frame two years back, which sounds about right for what this one will lose this weekend.
It's a bit more difficult to tell how much Interstellar will lose this weekend; word of mouth doesn't seem good enough to have an Inception sized 32% loss, but there's no way it loses over 55%. I'll say 50% exactly, which should lead to a projected final gross of $95 million.
The rest of the hold-overs, which are primarily dramas, likely won't be affected too much by the Dumb And Dumber continuation, so expect good dips from those, especially the likes of sleeper fall hits Gone Girl and St. Vincent. One holdover that should do really well this weekend is Birdman, which finally expands into wide release this weekend. Going into a projected 800 theaters, it should do about $3,400 per location for about $2.7 million total so far.
Two new limited releases that are getting prominent theater counts are Rosewater and Kirk Camerons Saving Christmas. Rosewater is going into 351 theaters, and with good reviews on it's side and Jon Stewart directing, it should find decent business this weekend, before potentially expanding into wide release over Thanksgiving weekend. As for Kirk Camerons latest feature, it's hard to tell how it'll do. It's trailers seem to show the film as not being a conventional narrative feature, so that may turn off audience members, though Cameron does have a sizable following.
Below, you can see my opening weekend prediction for Dumb And Dumber To and my predictions for this weekends box office Top 5.
Dumb And Dumber To
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total Gross: $90 million
1) Big Hero 6: $38 million
2) Dumb And Dumber To: $30 million
3) Interstellar: $23.5 million
4) Beyond The Lights: $6 million
5) Gone Girl: $4.8 million
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