The last two Hunger Games movies have been, to put it lightly, tremendous phenomenons. Both crossed $400 million, becoming the first movies from an independent movie studio to hit that mark, and now the penultimate movie is off to track down more financial glory. It should have no trouble securing the biggest opening weekend, as well as becoming the biggest movie of the year. The question I wonder though is how much it'll make this weekend, especially considering the track record of past "Part 1" movies.
The first part installments of the final Harry Potter and Twilight movies had slightly lower overall box office than the movie they followed. Harry Potter dipped only 4% from Half-Blood Prince, while Breaking Dawn Part One lost a heavier 6%. Mockingjay may be in line for a larger dip, but that's more due to the larger grosses The Hunger Games movies have amassed. Even if this one misses $400 million (a likely proposition), it should still perform heavenly at the box office.
I'm thinking a $148 million opening, just below the first one, and if it held on only a little bit worse than Catching Fire (which did 2.68 times its opening weekend) and did, say, 2.55 times it opening weekend, it'd make a tremendous $380 million total. I'd also expect an uptick in foreign attendance, which should get this one past $850 million with ease. Man, these Katniss adventures really are just printing money, aren't they?
Certain holdovers from the past few weekends should hold up better against Mockingjay than others. One that'll likely dip hard is Dumb And Dumber To, due to slower word of mouth and Thursday night screenings factored into last weekends results. I'm thinking a 55% dip that would take it to a $16 million second weekend.
For the past two Hunger Games, family movie holdovers held surprisingly well. In 2012 and 2013, The Lorax and Free Birds went up against the first and second Hunger Games features and only lost 42 and 33 percent respectively Big Hero 6 should fare similarly, for what I'd wager is a 39% hold. Fellow third week holdover Interstellar will likely have a slightly larger dip, but I'm thinking a 44% dip that would lead to a $15.8 million third weekend.
The Theory of Everything expands into at least 135 theaters this weekend, and considering it's success in arthouse theaters and focus on a well known figure like Stephen Hawking, it should find more success in this expansion. Oh, and I'm calling it now, I'm not gonna be surprised in the slightest if this goes wide over Thanksgiving.
Below is my opening weekend and final gross predictions for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One, as well as my projections for this weekends box office Top 5.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One
Opening Weekend:$148 million
Total Gross: $380 million
1) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One: $148 million
2) Big Hero 6: $21.1 million
3) Dumb And Dumber To:$16.1 million
4) Interstellar: $15.8 million
5) Gone Girl: $3.4 million
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