The first big new releases is The Maze Runner, the latest YA novel adapted to the big screen. This one has been tough to get a read on for a while, but with only a day to go until release, it does look like this one will be wind up being pretty successful. Reviews have actually been pretty good, which could convince some dubious audience members to give it a shot, while ads that highlight the action are smartly taking advantage of the lack of major action films in the marketplace.
I don't think a Divergent sized opening is in the cards here, but that's pretty much the worst thing you can say for this project financially. With a tiny $34 million budget on it's side, this should be a profitable franchise started for 20th Century Fox. I'm just gonna be crazy and predict a $35 million opening.
The other big new release of the weekend is A Walk Among The Tombstones, the newest feature from Liam Neeson. Neeson has become one of the more reliable movie stars in recent years, starring in five movies since 2009 and all but one of them opened to $20 million (the exception in that equation is The Grey, which made about 400 thousand below $20 million) That kind of consistency bodes well for the movie, it's R-rating could limit it's audience a bit. This one will miss $20 million, but just barely and should still be a respectable grosser for Neeson, though The Equalizer coming out next weekend will hurt its legs severely.
What do you get when you toss Jason Bateman, Tina Fey and "OUTER! SPACE!!" into one drama? You get This Is Where I Leave You, a forgettable looking drama that feels like it won't bomb, but it won't be a hit either. I can;t imagine this costs a ton, so it won't be too much of a burden for Warner Bros., but the marketing and mixed reviews for this one won't be able to convince audiences to come and see this one.
Kevin Smiths newest feature Tusk may or may not open in wide release this weekend, like last weekends The Drop the preliminary theater count for this one puts it just under wide release in 500 theaters. That would make it the first film released by A24 to go wide in its opening weekend, but regardless of theater counts, this one should do alright. I know I'm looking forward to it, but it's off-kilter premise might turn off some audience members.
Last weeks top new release, No Good Deed, is likely to take quite a tumble this weekend, though it's already made more than enough to become extremely profitable. Dolphin Tale 2 somewhat underwhelmed last weekend, but it'll have a mid-30% dip this weekend that'll help save some face. The Drop is expanding into over 1000 theaters this weekend, though it'll probably have a tough time getting over $3 million this forthcoming frame.
Below are my not only my predictions for the Top 5 at the box office this weekend, but my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks four new releases and my thoughts on how this overall weekend compares to the same timeframe from last year..
The Maze Runner
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Total Gross: $100 million
A Walk Among The Tombstones
Opening Weekend: $18 million
Total Gross: $45 million
This Is Where I Leave You
Opening Weekend: $11 million
Total Gross: $27 million
Tusk
Opening Weekend: $2.4 million
Total Gross: $10 million
1) The Maze Runner: $35 million
2) A Walk Among The Tombstones: $18 million
3) No Good Deed: $11.4 million
4) This Is Where I Leave You: $11 million
5) Dolphin Tale 2: $10 million
I'm thinking the total Top 12 makes about $103 million this weekend, a fantastic total that would not only be up 42% from last year, but also only one of three box office weekends ever in September to amass over $100 million among its Top 12 films. We shall see come Sunday if my optimistic projections turn out to be true or not. Until then, excelsior!
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