Box Office Predictions: The Equalizer Should Stabilize The Box Office

Man, everyone was early with their box office predictions yesterday. Normally, everyone does 'em Thursday night, but nope, Hollywood Reporter and Box Office Mojo had their predictions up last night. Guess I'm a bit of a Tardy Thomas with my predictions this weekend, but better late than never right?

This week brings two new releases that should deliver solid results. The biggest of the bunch is The Equalizer, the latest film from mega-superstar Denzel Washington, a man whose able to get any action movie to results ranging from solid to superb. Last years effort from the actor, 2 Guns, was on the solid end of the spectrum, but it still delivered a hefty $75 million. The year before that was Safe House, a feature that opened to $40 million and wound up with $126 million.

The Equalizer should be more like Safe House in performance, thanks to some excellent advertising that shows off elements everyone wants in movies starring Mr. Washington; him kicking ass, taking names, maybe dropping a funny moment or two. I'm not quite sure it can crash the $40 million barrier, but grossing above $30 million for the opening weekend should be no problem for the picture.

The only other new wide release this weekend is The Boxtrolls, a new animated feature from LAIKA, the animation company behind such fantastic features as Coraline and Paranorman. Features aimed at families haven't been doing so well in the past few months, with Dolphin Tale 2 recently underwhelming and while it won't break out in a huge way, The Boxtrolls should perform in a solid manner. Clay-motion features aren't huge box office draws, there isn't a single one that's opened above $20 million, but The Boxtrolls should take advantage of a lack of competition and a massive marketing campaign to grab one of the highest openings for a film made in the stop-motion medium.

Last weeks new releases should fare alright this weekend, though I'm having a tough time figuring out how The Maze Runner will hold this weekend. Divergent fell about 53% back in March, which seems like a reasonable figure for The Maze Runner. This Is Where I Leave You should fall in the high-30% range, while A Walk Among The Tombstones is gonna get obliterated by The Equalizer.

For limited releases this weekend, the extremely well received Pride opens up in just 6 theaters. I've heard nothing but good things about it, so I hope it can expand to a theater near me shortly, but for now it should have a pretty good opening in a small release. The Skeleton Twins is also doing an expansion of some kind this weekend, though I don't think it will be a large enough growth in theater count to get it into wide release. Nonetheless, the wonderfully reviewed film should continue to garner good box office results with the increased theater count.

There's also another faith-based movie opening this weekend entitled The Song opening in over 300 theaters. I've never heard of it, but I'm just gonna predict it'll fare like most faith based films opening after God's Not Dead and not do so well.

Below are not only my predictions for this weekends Top 5, but also my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weeks new releases.

The Equalizer
Opening Weekend: $34 million
Total Gross: $105 million

The Boxtrolls
Opening Weekend: $18 million
Total Gross: $63 million

1) The Equalizer: $34 million
2) The Boxtrolls: $18 million
3) The Maze Runner: $14 million
4) This Is Where I Leave You: $7.5 million
5) A Walk Among The Tombstones: $5 million