OK folks, I've got my thoughts ready to jot down and AC/DC's Moneytalks blaring as I type this, let's get going.
1) Avengers: Infinity War
So this is the big one of the summer, no question about it. Avengers: Infinity War has been a highly anticipated project since it got announced back in October 2014 and recent box office tracking that has it exceeding the likes of Black Panther and Star Wars: The Force Awakens cemented the fact that this is one film that's heavily awaited by the populace at large. So how high does this one go? Well, first off, I don't think this one takes down the Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend record. If any film in the near future could do it, it would be Infinity War, but I don't see it happening at this juncture. However, I do think it'll narrowly beat out Star Wars: The Last Jedi for the title of second biggest opening weekend in history, though more intense competition in May 2018 from Deadpool and Solo is gonna keep it from beating out the domestic grosses of MCU titles Black Panther and the very first Avengers film. Still, the promise of seeing numerous previously established Marvel superheroes joining forces to fight a long-in-the-works cosmic foe is giving this one an event movie feel that should handily carry it to the title of biggest movie of summer 2018.
Opening Weekend; $222 million
Total Domestic Gross: $560 million
2) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
The only real downside to having a movie that grosses well over $400 million is that your follow-up is going to make inevitably less money and the larger the sum of that original movie is, the wider the gap will grow between that film's domestic gross and the domestic haul of its sequel. That's not a bad thing at all though since movies typically only get to $400+ million hauls when they really tap into something in the zeitgeist, it's borderline impossible to replicate that. Plus, the likes of Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi have recently shown that mammoth domestic hauls can emerge even when understandably falling below your predecessor. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom shall follow a similar path, as its predecessor was able to leverage nostalgia and pent-up demand for a new Jurassic Park movie into a shockingly gargantuan box office haul. Coming only three years after it's predecessor, there isn't as much demand for a new Jurassic Park adventure, though luckily Jurassic World was beloved by the general public and the sequel has been emphasizing plenty of new elements (namely a volcano and the presence of dinosaurs in the "real world") in its marketing campaign. It won't be as big as Jurassic World, but Fallen Kingdom should have no trouble still remaining one of the biggest movies of 2018.
Opening Weekend: $180 million
Total Domestic Gross: $500 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story will be the lowest-grossing of the new Disney sanctioned Star Wars movies so far. This is definitely going to happen and it should surprise no one. Solo is opening in a far more competitive summertime marketplace compared to the last three Star Wars movies that opened as the only big blockbusters for miles in December. That being said, that looks to be the worst thing someone can say about Solo's prospective box office performance as the film is still tearing it up in terms of generating advanced social media buzz and the newest trailer was greeted with a positive reception. Han Solo and his gang will fall below the Avengers and the dinos of Jurassic World but they should still generate a solid cume that will show that even the lowest domestic box office haul a new Star Wars movie can generate is still a mighty big sum of cash. As a sidenote, this will be the biggest movie to bow over Memorial Day in a good long while, in fact, it'll be only the third movie to open over Memorial Day that managed to also gross over $200 million domestically (following Fast & Furious 6 and X-Men: Days of Future Past) since 2008.
Opening Weekend: $150 million
Total Domestic Gross: $430 million
4) Incredibles 2
A sequel to a beloved PIXAR movie is pretty much a guaranteed recipe for box office success, so really the only question here is how big Incredibles 2 goes. The first Incredibles isn't quite as beloved as Finding Nemo, so it's highly doubtful it matches the $135 million bow of that feature, but it's still widely well-liked so it's doubtful it'll be far off. Toy Story 3 grossed $110 million back in June 2010 (a $128.5 million in 2018 dollars), let's say Incredibles 2 winds up in between the opening weekends of those two PIXAR sequels. That would give the Parr family a $122.5 million opening weekend. I'll predict right now Incredibles 2 ends up slightly below that on opening weekend, but provided it does the usual 3.5 weekend multiplier that summertime PIXAR movies usually do, this should have the second biggest domestic box office haul ever for a PIXAR feature.
Opening Weekend: $117 million
Total Domestic Gross: $413 million
5) Deadpool 2
How does a sequel to one of the biggest sleeper box office hits of recent years, Deadpool, end up feeling like a smaller figure among giants? Opening it in between Avengers and Star Wars mainly, though Deadpool 2 is still gonna rack up massive grosses. People just love that first movie and a marketing campaign that brings fan-favorite character Cable to the proceedings, as well as jokes that fit right into the style of humor seen in spades in the first film, should be the cat's meow for the general public. What's gonna be interesting to see is if this one follows the box office pattern I explored when talking about Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom concerning big blockbusters inevitably having sequels that fall short of their predecessors. The first Deadpool made $361 million, not too far above the domestic grosses of the first Transformers and Pirates of the Caribbean movies, which both had sequels that improved on their predecessors domestic cumes. Those are the exceptions, though, and not the rule, and it's likely Deadpool 2 falls short of its predecessor's domestic haul, especially since it has to face way bigger competition than the first Deadpool ever did.
Opening Weekend: $123 million
Total Domestic Gross: $320 million
The Mission: Impossible movies have always been major moneymakers for Paramount Pictures, that's why they've made six of them. But it's clear that the troubled studio wants this newest entry in the franchise to take the Mission: Impossible films to the next level of successful box office as seen in the decision to make this the first feature in the series to be released in 3D and a marketing campaign that kicked off at the Super Bowl. That marketing campaign has so far emphasized the presence of newcomers Henry Cavill and Angela Bassett as well as a sense of closure for the series (the trailer begins with a baddie intoning "The end is coming") and plenty of memorable spectacle. Add to all of that Fallout is coming hot off two highly well-received Mission: Impossible movies and Paramount may just get that next-level box office after all.
Opening Weekend: $86 million
Total Domestic Gross: $260 million
7) Ant-Man And The Wasp
Yes, there is another Marvel Studios project on the horizon this summer. Hard to say right now if Ant-Man And The Wasp gets a lift from all that Infinity War hype or if tossing another MCU movie at audiences two months after an MCU movie that was widely promoted as being "[where] it all ends" ends up alienating audiences, but for now, this Ant-Man sequel seems to be in fine shape to be a box office success. The first Ant-Man is one of the lowest grossing MCU films, but it had great word-of-mouth and Ant-Man popping up in a memorable appearance in the box office smash Captain America: Civil War will have doubtlessly helped increase his exposure (ditto Ant-Man's appearance in the currently forthcoming Infinity War). Most of the marketing for this one is being held off until Infinity War comes out, but the first trailer heavily emphasizes the presence of The Wasp and plenty of distinctive shrinking/growing hijinks to capture prospective moviegoers attention. This one won't be anywhere near as big as the last few MCU films, but Ant-Man And The Wasp should still be a noteworthy box office performer this summer.
Opening Weekend: $88 million
Total Domestic Gross: $245 million
8) Hotel Transylvania 3
Both of the Hotel Transylvania movies over-performed compared to box office expectations and there's a good chance this new entry in the series does the same, especially now that it's opening in the summertime and can benefit from kids being able to more readily see it during the week. However, unless you have the Toy Story or Madagascar name in your title, third entries in computer animated franchises typically hit lower grosses than their predecessors, as the third Kung Fu Panda, Shrek and even Despicable Me movies can attest. Still, it's doubtful the Hotel Transylvania movies never had the $200+ million grosses of the Shrek or Despicable Me movies so it's doubtful it has as hard of a fall as those third movies did. Let's say Hotel Transylvania 3 has a slight dip from the second Hotel Transylvania movie with a likely chance of exceeding expectations. Never underestimate the Drac Pack at the box office.
Opening Weekend: $50 million
Total Domestic Gross: $165 million
9) Ocean's 8
An extension of the Ocean's Eleven franchise is looking like just the film to round out the top ten. The highly popular Ocean's Eleven films have been dormant for a decade, but now they return this summer with an all-star cast that the marketing for Ocean's 8 has been clearly emphasizing. Leading that cast is Sandra Bullock, whose got a sterling box office track record thanks to three of her last five movies (Minions is not counted in there and Our Brand Is Crisis and All About Steve are the two exceptions) that opened directly into wide release opening to over $30 million. Combining her with the likes of Cate Blanchett and Anne Hathaway, a marketing campaign that's so far been distinctive & fun as well as that popular Ocean's Eleven brand name should result in some solid box office. Interestingly, none of the Ocean's Movies cracked $40 million on opening weekend (they all opened in the range of $36.1 to $39.1 million), something I'm predicting Ocean's 8 will manage to do. Adjusted for inflation, Ocean's Eleven took in $61.8 million, Ocean's Twelve took in $57.8 million and Ocean's Thirteen took in $48.2 million. Let's say Ocean's 8 falls a bit short of Ocean's Thirteen's adjusted for inflation opening weekend, a debut that would be plenty large enough to set it on course for a domestic box office haul that could crack this summer's top ten biggest films at the domestic box office.
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Total Gross: $150 million
I was actually wondering whether or not this one was actually gonna manage to stand out in the crowded summertime marketplace, but then Disney dropped the first teaser trailer for Christopher Robin that confirmed this film would most certainly be exploiting the nostalgia of millions in a manner heavy on the pathos. Christopher Robin won't be anywhere near as big as the likes of Beauty And The Beast and The Jungle Book but Disney seems to have been keenly aware of that since they gave Christopher Robin a considerably lower budget. Christopher Robin will no doubt handily exceed the domestic cume of the last family movie Disney released in August (Pete's Dragon) and round out this summer's top ten biggest domestic box office performers.
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Total Domestic Gross: $135 million
OK guys, that's it for part one. Come back in the next few days and I'll have the second part of my Summer 2018 Box Office Predictions, where I'll look at other possible Summer 2018 box office hits, unpredictable wild cards and potential box office misfires, up and ready to go!
No comments:
Post a Comment