Now that the Summer 2018 season has come to a close, it's time to look back at the Summer 2018 box office over the course of a two part series of articles. First up, let's look at how my predictions for what would be the ten biggest movies of the summer stacked up with the actual box office top ten. Two quick words of caution; I am counting Avengers: Infinity War as a Summer 2018 title and some movies on this list are still going at the domestic box office, so for those specific films I'm specifying that I am projecting what their final domestic box office totals will be.
Now, let's begin our look back at the Summer 2018 box office with the biggest movie of the summer...
1. Avengers: Infinity War
For the first time since 2014, a Marvel Cinematic Universe film topped the summer box office with Avengers: Infinity War. While it was a foregone conclusion that an Avengers movie folding in newbie MCU superheroes Doctor Strange, Spider-Man and Black Panther would make more than 2015's Age of Ultron (which mostly kept the team roster the same), but who could have predicted it would outgross all superhero movies sans this year's Black Panther and score the biggest opening weekend in history? Clearly, all of those years of build-up paid off big time for this title and allowed Infinity War to soar above all other Summer 2018 titles and also above the $2 billion mark at the worldwide box office.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $560 million
Actual Domestic Gross: $678.7 million
2. Incredibles 2
If Infinity War being as big as it was was a surprise, then Incredibles 2 being this successful was an utter shock, I still can't fathom how popular this movie was. Sure, people had been clamoring for more Incredibles for years, but man, who knew Incredibles 2 would handily surpass the domestic box office gross of Finding Dory and every other PIXAR movie even when adjusting for inflation? Incredibles 2 scaled box office heights heretofore unheard of for animated fare and managed to also stick around in the weeks after its record-shattering opening weekend thanks to super positive word-of-mouth. Yes sir, this was a box office performance that was all around (*sigh* super obvious pun incoming) incredible.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $413 million
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $605 million
The newest Jurassic Park adventure fell below my predictions and also fell 37% below the domestic gross of the original Jurassic World, a steeper decline than the one seen by Age of Ultron from the first Avengers as well as the one seen by Attack of the Clones from The Phantom Menace. Jurassic World was a one-of-a-kind event propped up by years of anticipation though and this was still a gargantuan gross in its own right that's doubly impressive given that this feature opened one week after Incredibles 2. They weren't as big as last time, but the Jurassic World dinos still have some noteworthy box office might.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $500 million
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $417 million
4. Deadpool 2
Hey, I was really close on this one! Being released in between Infinity War and Solo, Deadpool 2 was never gonna be as big as its predecessor which was the only blockbuster for miles in February 2016. No matter, going down only 12% from the first movies domestic cume is a fine hold for this sequel which still stood tall above all but three Summer 2018 titles as well as all but four R-rated movies in history. In a summer where comedies tended to fall flat, Deadpool 2 proved that raunchy yuks still can draw a massive crowd, especially when they involve a guy like Peter.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $320 million
Actual Domestic Gross: $318.4 million
5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
The newest Ethan Hunt adventure fell short of my overzealous box office predictions, but that's the only real complaint you can level at this one's excellent domestic gross that set a new record for domestic grosses for Mission: Impossible movies. That's not usually what happens when you're six movies into a franchise like Mission: Impossible is, but Ethan Hunt and the gang defied convention thanks to strong word-of-mouth in their last two adventures and an eye-catching marketing campaign from Paramount Pictures. It was apparent Paramount was wanting this one to be a major hit given the extensive marketing muscle they put behind it and it's clear such marketing paid off considering Mission: Impossible - Fallout is the fifth biggest movie Paramount Pictures has released in the 2010's.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $260 million
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $220 million
Like the newest Mission: Impossible movie, the largest complaint you can level at the newest Ant-Man movie was that it fell shy of my overly large box office expectations. Ant-Man and the Wasp kicked off its domestic box office run with a solid $75 million opening weekend that was actually the most frontloaded opening weekend ever for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film in terms of how much Thursday night grosses accounted for its opening weekend. Luckily for it, things stabilized afterwards and it held its own against a number of notable newcomers in the summer box office, allowing it get to a domestic cume that's about 21% larger than the domestic haul of the first Ant-Man. Who would ever thought the day would come when Ant-Man could outgross Star Wars at the domestic box office? Speaking of which...
Predicted Domestic Gross: $245 million
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $217 million
Well, I was off a tad here.
Solo: A Star Wars Story is one of the most fascinating box office bombs in a long while, a movie with a hellish production that cost at least $275 million to make yet topped out at the worldwide box office with only $392.7 million, most of which came from a tepid $213.6 million domestic run. Solo had big box office expectations on its shoulders right up until its opening day box office came in so much lower than everyone expected. What happened? Looking back, the marketing just felt run-of-the-mill, there were no distinct visuals or eye-catching spectacle to speak of and for some reason Han Solo was always relegated to the background of his own movie. Combine a lackluster marketing campaign with intense competition from Infinity War and Deadpool 2 and maybe we should have all seen Solo going belly-up a lot sooner. Now that Solo has become the newest Disney Memorial Day box office dud after Prince of Persia, Tomorrowland and Alice Through The Looking Glass, all eyes are on next year's Aladdin remake (currently scheduled for May 24, 2019) to see if it can break this curse...
Predicted Domestic Gross: $430 million
Actual Domestic Gross: $213.6 million
8. Crazy Rich Asians
Crazy Rich Asians is one of only two movies that cracked the top ten for this summer that I didn't actually predict would end up on this list originally simply because nobody expected this title to be as big as it was. Crazy Rich Asians certainly looked like a sleeper hit in the making that could easily get past $100 million domestic but performing the way it has in its three weekend of domestic box office play has been remarkable to see. Crazy Rich Asians has already taken in $117.3 million after just twenty days of domestic play and it's miniscule weekend-to-weekend drops signify that there's no end in sight for it. Now well on its way to becoming one of the ten biggest romantic-comedies of all-time, Crazy Rich Asians is one of the more outstanding domestic box office overperformers in recent memory.
Predicted Domestic Gross: N/A
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $175 million
One of the few summer 2018 titles I was nearly dead-on on in my box office predictions, the newest Hotel Transylvania movie couldn't quite top the $169.7 million cume of its predecessor even with the benefit of a summertime release date, but Lord knows plenty of big animated franchises like Shrek or Despicable Me would have killed for only a 1% dip in domestic box office performance once the third installment came around. With a box office haul like this, I'd be shocked if Hotel Transylvania 4 didn't come down the pipeline in the near future.
Predicted Domestic Gross: $165 million
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $167 million
10. The Meg
Considering Jason Statham had only appeared in two movies (Spy and The Italian Job) that crossed the $100 million domestic mark without the aid of the Fast & Furious or The Expendables brand names, it's all kinds of shocking that this shark attack blockbuster exceeded all expectations and became a big enough smash hit to register as only the second feature in the summer 2018 domestic box office top ten that I didn't initially predict would end up here. People love sharks and they were looking for something light-hearted at the tail end of the summer and The Meg's marketing campaign made sure both of those elements were front and center, resulting in a big win for Jason Statham's credibility as a box office draw.
Predicted Domestic Gross: N/A
Projected Actual Domestic Gross: $143 million
So which two movies did I predict would be in the top 10 but didn't make it? Well, the first was Ocean's 8, which got left out solely due to two August 2018 Warner Bros. hits rather than it underperforming. Actually, Ocean's 8 held excellently throughout the summer and scored the second biggest domestic gross ever for its franchise. Meanwhile, the other one that didn't manage a spot in the top ten was box office disappointment Christopher Robin, which looks like it's headed for an underwhelming $93-95 million domestic finish, way below the other recent live-action Disney remakes and only 11-14% ahead of the domestic gross of 2016's Pete's Dragon, which did not have the iconic Pooh characters to boost its profile.
Come back later in the week for the second and final part of this look back at the Summer 2018 box office as I examine other movies that hit it big and missed the mark during these heated months of the year!
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