Saturday, March 26, 2022

Douglas Laman's 94th Academy Awards Predictions

Here we are again, another Academy Awards ceremony. And even with everything being super busy in my life, I couldn't resist the chance to ramble about my predictions for who will win in each of the 23 categories tomorrow night. Below, I've listed out each category and predicted who will win among the nominees, a runner-up, as well as who, among the five nominated films I wish would win. For a full list of the nominees, please click here.

On with the show!


BEST PICTURE

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA

Should Win: Drive My Car

The Best Editing category has been a surprisingly reliable space to help predict who could win Best Picture. Since the category's creation in 1934, only ten films have won Best Picture without also scoring a Best Editing nod. Only one (Birdman) has managed to do that feat since the 1980 feature Ordinary People and all ten of the victors have scored Best Director nominations to compensate for the Editing snub. With no Best Editing or Best Director nods, I just don't see CODA being able to break that much history to score a Best Picture win, though don't count out it toppling The Power of the Dog in an upset given all its recent award season momentum.

BEST DIRECTOR 

Will Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Could Win: Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)

Should Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

This one's Campion's to lose.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)

Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

Could Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Should Win: Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

This is possibly the biggest toss-up of the night, but I'm gonna say Cruz walks away with her second Oscar. Don't be shocked if Chastain clinches the victory since she's playing the kind of flashy biopic role the Oscars have often loved.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Could Win: Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)

Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Arianna DeBose (West Side Story)

Could Win: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

Should Win: Arianna DeBose (West Side Story)

Weird trivia here; DeBose is on track to become only the third actor to win an Oscar for acting in a  Steven Spielberg directorial effort following Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln and Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies. All of them within the last decade!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)

Could Win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

Should Win: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)

Just don't let Adam McKay win for Don't Look Up...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: Sian Heder (CODA)

Could Win: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (Drive My Car)

This is the category where the surge for CODA will be felt the most, I could see the rising tide of passion lifting it to a Best Adapted Screenplay win, but not quite to a Best Picture victory. Wish Drive My Car could swoop in and score a win here, though.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Will Win: Encanto

Could Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Should Win: Flee

It's criminal that Flee isn't running away with this category.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:

Will Win: Drive My Car

Could Win: The Worst Person in the World

Should Win: Drive My Car/

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Summer of Soul

Could Win: Flee

Should Win: Summer of Soul

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:

Will Win: The Queen of Basketball

Could Win: N/A

Should Win: N/A

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Will Win: The Long Goodbye

Could Win: N/A

Should Win: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Will Win: Robin Robin

Could Win: N/A

Should Win: N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Hans Zimmer (Dune)

Could Win: Germaine Franco (Encanto)

Should Win: Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "No Time to Die" (No Time to Die)

Could Win: "Be Alive" (King Richard)

Should Win: "Be Alive" (King Richard)

BEST SOUND

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: No Time to Die

Should Win: West Side Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)

Could Win: Greig Fraser (Dune)

Should Win: Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Nightmare Alley

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: West Side Story

BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: The Power of the Dog

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: No Time to Die

Should Win: Dune


And that's all my predictions, folks! Thanks for reading and we'll see tomorrow night how these stack up to the reality! I'm sure the eventual winners will drum up zero conversation whatsoever...

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