Let's get these top ten predictions started with...
1. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2
Is there any other likely victor for this summer's box office? For the fifth out of six summers (sans 2015 when Jurassic World became a juggernaut), Marvel Studios should have the biggest live-action movie of the summer. I'd suspect this one will have a notably bigger opening weekend than its predecessor (maybe as high as 50% higher) but no way it holds as well simply because early May films are more frontloaded than early August films because of the massive amount of competition May movies face. Even while being more frontloaded than its predecessor, expect this new Guardians movie to be a hefty box office phenomenon and one that will likely crack $1 billion worldwide as well.
Total Gross: $350 million
2. Despicable Me 3
Gru and his Minions show no sign of slowing down at the box office if 2015's Minions is any indication and this new Despicable Me adventure should continue the franchise's massive box office returns. It's doubtful it surpasses the domestic cume of Despicable Me 2 simply because third movies (with the exception of the occasional Toy Story 3, Return Of The King or Madagascar 3) don't outgross the second entries in major franchises but it should remain on par with Minions domestically and will likely be the biggest movie of the summer on a worldwide box office basis easily.
Total Gross: $340 million
The new Marvel Studios approved version of Spider-Man should show a notable improvement over the two Amazing Spider-Man movies where domestic box office is concerned, though the fact that it's the sixth Spider-Man movie in 15 years means it won't have the novelty factor of recent Marvel movies. Ads have gone for a more generic superhero movie tone compared to other Marvel features as well but the advent of a younger protagonist, a High School setting, Michael Keaton as a baddie and the presence of Tony Stark should keep this one as a notable box office force to be reckoned with.
Total Gross: $325 million
4. Wonder Woman
We're five weeks out from the release of the very first live-action Wonder Woman movie but you wouldn't know it judging by the bizarre lack of marketing right now. That's some cause for major concern, but it shouldn't keep this one from being a sizeable hit, even if it's likely to be the lowest-grossing DC Extended Universe movie yet (a feat mitigated by the fact that it's supposedly cheaper than the three past DCEU features). The ads have made sure to emphasize a lighter tone and plenty of spectacles, two elements that typically add up to major hits. What's interesting too is that this one is opening in the first weekend of June, a place typically (though not always as seen by X-Men: First Class) reserved for titles counter-programming against blockbusters like The Fault In Our Stars, The Purge and Spy, meaning Wonder Woman should end up being one of the biggest movies ever opening in this timeframe.
Total Gross: $260 million
5. War For The Planet Of The Apes
Remember that rule I mentioned about third entries in sagas typically making less than their predecessors? There are exceptions to that rule and I wouldn't be surprised to see the third title in the reboot (or prequel, it's kinda unclear beyond some Easter Eggs in Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes) series of Planet Of The Apes movies go bananas at the domestic box office and chalk up impressive grosses thanks to a marketing campaign that's been firing on all cylinders right now, not to mention the fact that it's coming off of two highly beloved movies. A 15% increase over the domestic cume of Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes sounds about right to me right now and there's totally the potential to go higher.
Total Gross: $240 million
6. Cars 3
Normally, the new PIXAR movie (so long as it isn't The Good Dinosaur) is the talk of the town and something that's a box office heavyweight. This summer though, Cars 3 definitely feels like it's the underdog compared to the newest Despicable Me movie and when taking into account the more mixed reception its predecessors received. Luckily, that first Cars is so beloved that it's doubtful this one capsizes to Good Dinosaur levels of domestic box office, but it's also doubtful Cars 3 avoids plunging beneath the domestic total of Cars 2 even with distinctive marketing elements to its name like that tonally unexpected teaser trailer running before all screenings of Rogue One.
Total Gross: $185 million
7. Transformers: The Last Knight
Look, I don't like the Transformers movies, I hated the fourth one but personal opinion doesn't factor into these columns, ya gotta get analytical on these things and there's just not much data here to suggest the newest Transformers movie is gonna have a massive downturn from the fourth movie. Granted, a dip is almost certainly happening because this movie doesn't have the novelty factor of seeing Mark Wahlberg enter the franchise that the fourth film had, but since there's no other big movies opening over the lucrative 4th of July holiday, not to mention that these movies typically go over well with general moviegoers, this newest Transformers movie should easily be one of the ten biggest movies of the summer and make a killing worldwide.
Total Gross: $180 million
8. Dunkirk
Dunkirk is kind of an outlier in this list, being a big-budget non-sequel war drama, but underestimate Christopher Nolan at your own peril, The guys wrung box office hits out of Batman, dreams and space travel, you'd be crazy to think a large-scale World War II movie doesn't at least have a chance to achieve similar levels of box office success. Early trailers have been smart to emphasize small human beings in a big war, including notable names like recent Academy Award winner Mark Rylance and Mad Max himself, Tom Hardy. There's also a guy named Harry Styles in it, tell me, does he have a big fanbase who would see the movie in droves?
Total Gross: $170 million
9. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Jack Sparrow is back and though Disney's struggled with marketing this $325 million budgeted movie in the wake of Johnny Depp being outed as a wife beater (which makes marketing stunts like him appearing as Jack Sparrow at Disneyland.....weird, at least to me), but Dead Men Tell No Tales will probably end up doing OK. My box office comparison for this one is X-Men: Apocalypse, another entry in a long-running series that came out over Memorial Day last year. X-Men: Apocalypse did OK business domestically that fell way below its predecessor and something similar is likely in store for this new Pirates adventure.
Total Gross: $165 million
We've actually got quite a few R-rated comedies this summer that are promising from a box office perspevive but likely to be the biggest of all of them is the new Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House. Both of the lead actors are well-liked, the premise combines relatable situations with a more high-concept element and the trailer got a huge response on my screening of Going In Style. Plus, Ferrell's still got a strong box office track record even after nearly 15 years as a leading man so don't ever count out his newest summer comedy.
Total Gross: $140 million
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