It's interesting to look at the financial progress of sequels to blockbusters that do huge business. Typically, those that get over $275 million have a tendency to have their immediate successor make less. Exceptions to this rule certainly exist (Pirates of The Caribbean and Transformers both had first entries that made over $300 million, and their sequels managed to make more at the box office), but for the most part, that's how it rolls for high grossing films. Just look at how Attack of The Clones dipped 25% from The Phantom Menace, or how Chamber of Secrets dipped a whopping 16.5% from Sorcerer's Stone.
It's almost a certainty that The Avengers: Age of Ultron will have a smaller overall gross than The Avengers, though considering that only two movies in history have ever made more than that 2012 Joss Whedon movie, it's not exactly a shocker to hear that AoU is likely to make less. Still, this sequel has a good shot at surpassing its predecessors opening weekend, though similarly, the first films opening weekend (the biggest of all-time, with $207 million collected in its first three days) is so formidable it truly wouldn't be disappointing in the slightest if it came up short.
Marvel has done one helluva job at trying to make that outcome of it falling short of the first film on opening weekend doesn't occur by putting together a massive marketing campaign. A memorable teaser trailer back in October 2014 set up both a darker mood and the films primary villain, Ultron, whose been a major player in all the promotional materials. The theatrical trailer, released in March 2015, kept the stakes of the story high while also adding in moments of humor, an element that audiences truly responded to in the first Avengers.
It helps of course that the first Avengers as beloved by audiences, and films like Iron Man 3 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier have kept the characters prominent in pop culture with well recieved and financially lucrative spin-offs. Reviews aren't anywhere near as glowing for Age of Ultron as last time, but they're still solid enough and aren't even remotely bad enough to deter viewers. All that in mind, it seems likely that The Avengers: Age of Ultron takes a cue from another sequel to a beloved 2012 smash hit, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and increase slightly over the first movies opening weekend.
With all that being said, it'll be interesting to see how the movie plays over the weekend, especially since unlike, say, the Twilight movies, these Marvel Cinematic Universe films aren't particularly frontloaded and make up a large share of their opening weekend on Saturday and Sunday. This one should have no trouble becoming the biggest MCU movie at late night screenings by a huge margin (I'm thinking it makes $22 million from those showings alone), and then winding up with an opening weekend slightly higher than the original, maybe about 6% to a $220 million opening.
With Age of Ultron coming out, holdovers at the box office are likely gonna take a tumble, especially the only other big action tentpole in the marketplace, Furious 7, which should lose 55% for this frame. Movies that occupy a different genre than Age of Ultron (like dramas like Ex Machina or romantic movies like The Age of Adeline) should have better dips, though even they won't be impervious to Ultron's reign.
Below, you can see my opening weekend and final gross predictions for The Avengers: Age of Ultron and my projections for this weekends Top 5.
The Avengers: Age of Ultron
Opening Weekend: $220 million
Total Gross: $580 million
1) The Avengers: Age of Ultron: $220 million
2) Furious 7: $8 million
3) Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2: $7.5 million
4) The Age of Adeline: $7 million
5) Home: $4.7 million
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