Looking at last weeks champ, Furious 7, which dipped a bit better in its second frame than past Fast & Furious adventures, this one should have a similar drop to Fast & Furious 6, which lost 44% in it's third weekend, though this newest chapter in the epic F&F saga will likely wind up a bit higher, maybe around 48%, which should bring it to a total just under $300 million.
The most high profile of the new releases attempting to make more cash than the Fast & Furious gang this weekend, and one that could unseat it if it really breaks out this weekend, is Unfriended. A horror film that makes heavy use of modern technology, namely Skype, this ones had a great marketing campaign that's made sure to emphasis great reviews, it's unique presentation and some memorable scares. Back in 2013, the distributor of Unfriended, Universal Studios, launched The Purge to $36 million, which may be a bit too high of a number for this film to reach. Still, Unfriended is getting more theaters on it's opening weekend than both Purge movies, which does show supreme confidence, and it could make a run at $30 million if the winds of fortune really shift its way.
Another one of this weekends numerous new releases is on the complete other end of the spectrum when compared to Unfriended, the film in question being Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. This Kevin James sequel follows up to a 2009 smash hit that managed to gross $146 million, decimating any and all expectations. Six years later is a long wait for any kind of sequel, and the fact that follow ups to live-action family movies dip heavily from their predecessors (The Smurfs, Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties, Muppets Most Wanted) only further damages this ones financial potential. Still, a lack of high profile comedic films in the marketplace will likely get this one to just over $20 million this weekend, though anything more than that seems uber unlikely.
Although it's going into 2000 theaters this weekend (by far the widest release for a Disneynature film), it's unlikely Monkey Kingdom leaves a sizable impression on the box office. Still, compared to its nature documentary brethren it should fare alright, and one point in its favor is that it won't have the Easter holiday diluting its weekend grosses, unlike the two Disneynature films that have the lowest opening weekends in the studios (brief) history. I'd wager this one crosses over $6 million to become the third biggest Disneynature opening weekend of all-time, though it probably won't have remarkable box office stamina over the next few weeks due to intense box office competition.
There's also a slew of high-profile smaller dramas going into wide release this weekend, namely A24's While We're Young. A lack of an official theater count makes this a tough one to predict in terms of an opening weekend, but it should have a solid per theater average due to a high amount of buzz. True Story meanwhile opens this weekend in what will likely be just over 600 theaters, and while middling reviews will keep it from breaking out, it's two big stars should get it to about $2.5 million for the weekend. Finally, Child 44 may or may not enter wide release on its own opening weekend, but marketing has been pretty much nonexistent for this title. Add in intense competition from the two just mentioned films, and this ones gonna likely bomb over the frame.
Below you can see my opening weekend and total gross predictions for the four new releases this weekend assured to go into wide release, as well as my projections for this weekends box office top 5.
Unfriended
Opening Weekend: $27 million
Total Gross: $55 million
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2
Opening Weekend: $23 million
Total Gross: $70 million
Monkey Kingdom
Opening Weekend: $6 million
Total Gross: $18 million
True Story
Opening Weekend: $3.2 million
Total Gross: $10 million
1) Furious 7: $31 million
2) Unfriended: $27 million
3) Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2: $23 million
4) Home: $12 million
5) The Longest Ride: $6.7 million
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