We've got quite a meager bunch of movies for this particular 4th of July weekend. But even meager offerings deserve some predictions (even if I'm cheating a bit this time around since all the new releases have been out for a day already), so let's get to it!
The lack of anything truly notable guarantees Transformers: Age of Extinction another weekend on top. However, it's gonna plummet, especially since not only will 4th of July falling on Friday dilute its gross on Friday, but its previous Friday had massive midnight numbers factored into it. Expect a 80% dip on Friday, which should stabilize to a still massive 68% dip for the weekend overall.
If there was any newcomer that could potentially beat out Trans4mers, it was Tammy. However, if its early box office is any indication, that's not gonna happen. It had an OK opening day ($6.2 million) but the word of mouth is gonna torpedo this one, since it's just not that funny (the audience I saw it with earlier today was dead silent the entire movie). It'll do OK over the 5-day frame, though the dip on Thursday is really gonna be the deciding factor in that scenario, but it's gonna crumble afterwards, especially when Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel unleash their Sex Tape in two weeks.
Deliver Us From Evil was supposed to be the breakout horror hit of the year, but instead has stalled a bit. Kind of a surprise to me at least, since ads seemed effective enough, but I guess it just didn't click with audiences. Anywho, it made $2.8 million on opening day, a paltry sum that doesn't bode well for the future, especially considering how horror movies burn out quickly. The holiday weekend should keep it around a bit longer, but this is gonna wind up being one of the more surprising flops of the summer.
And then there's Earth To Echo, which is actually doing alright for itself. The family film will hold the best over the weekend, since families don't have a lot of options regarding movies this particular weekend. After opening to $2.6 million, it should beat Deliver Us From Evil over the three day frame, and wind up with a respectable enough final gross.
Below are not only my predictions for the three-day box office Top 10 (too many releases to limit myself to just five!), but also predictions for the opening weekend and final total for this weekends three new releases.
Tammy:
Opening Weekend: $18.1 million ($29.7 million for the five-day)
Total Gross: $55 million
Deliver Us From Evil:
Opening Weekend: $8 million ($12.9 million for the five-day)
Total Gross: $27 million
Earth To Echo:
Opening Weekend: $10.6 million ($15.6 million for the five-day)
Total Gross: $43 million
1) Transformers: Age of Extinction: $32 million
2) Tammy: $18.1 million
3) Earth To Echo: $10.6 million
4) How To Train Your Dragon 2: $10.3 million
5) 22 Jump Street $9.8 million
6) Deliver Us From Evil: $8 million
7) Think Like A Man Too: $6.7 million
8) Jersey Boys: $5.1 million
9) Maleficent: $4.9 million
10) The Fault In Our Stars: $3.3 million
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