One of those new releases this weekend is Pixels and it hopes to reverse the downward trend Adam Sandler has seen at the box office recently. Ads have made sure to put iconic video game characters like Pac-Man and Donkey Kong have been prominently featured, though there hasn't been a lot of notable action beats in commercials despite the unique premise (video game characters attack the world). To boot, the entire marketing effort feels like its been weirdly subdued, which had led to some bizarre incidents like fellow new release Southpaw (which is an R-rated boxing drama expected to debut in the mid-teens) somehow being more tweeted about on Twitter this week than this summer blockbuster.
It also doesn't help that Adam Sandler has had a lot of trouble at the box office lately, ranging from underwhelming financial ventures (Jack & Jill and Blended) to outright bombs (That's My Boy). Let's not also forget the recent controversy Sandlers recent Netflix movies have gotten into, with racism against Native Americans and sexism towards female extras further sullying his reputation. Will people really wanna watch this dude save the planet? Toss in some abysmal reviews (it's currently got a 9% on Rotten Tomatoes) and this feels like it's a box office dud in the making. Digital 3D and IMAX 3D ticket price supercharges will keep this above the $25 million opening weekend of Jack & Jill, but it's hard for me to see it getting too much higher than $30 million.
Another newcomer, Paper Towns, will also make a run for the number one spot this weekend, hoping to capture some of the box office glory of last years The Fault In Our Stars. That film had a more compelling premise in ads (facing the struggles of cancer, with a tragic romance tossed into the mix), though Paper Towns hasn't been too shabby in creating distinctive marketing material itself. Look for this low-budget effort to become another big win for 20th Century Fox as I have a hunch it'll open a bit north of $25 million.
The third of this weekends four new releases will be more modest in its opening, but that's to be expected considering that Southpaw is an R-rated boxing drama. Despite this being one of the few movies from The Weinstein Company to go into wide release on its opening weekend, the studio has been solid in promoting the feature, with TV ads running rampant and famous rapper Eminem (who made a song for the motion picture) regularly promoting the feature to his 19 million followers on Twitter. Mixed reviews will keep it from breaking out, but Southpaw should have a solid $16 million opening.
Finally, among this weeks new releases, is a smaller scale release from Lionsgate that I'm not 100% certain will go into wide release. Entitled The Vatican Tapes. it stars Michael Pena (who was a scene-stealer in Ant-Man) and has had a pretty much non-existent marketing effort. I'd honestly be shocked if this got past $1.5 million for the weekend, and even $1 million for its opening would be charitable if it fails to secure 600 theaters this weekend.
Even with all those films entering the marketplace, there's still a good chance one of two holdovers (which have both been number one at the box office before) could reign supreme if Pixels drastically underperforms. The first of those holdovers is Ant-Man, which had strong weekday numbers suggesting that great word-of-mouth is spreading. Since newcomer summer blockbuster Pixels is unlikely to break out and take away its business, Ant-Man has a great shot at having the smallest second weekend dip for any feature in the second phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. A dip around 50% would lead to a $28.5 million weekend.
Another holdover that may claim victory this weekend is Minions, which actually beat out Ant-Man on Tuesday to be the biggest movie in America on that particular weekday. The gap between the two was tiny enough that I think Ant-Man will reclaim number one on Wednesday (and possibly the weekend), but never count out these little guys. I'm thinking they lose about 43% for a $28 million third weekend. While Trainwreck doesn't have a shot at number one this weekend, it's likely to follow the pattern of its ilk (i.e. well received R-rated comedies like 21 Jump Street, The Hangover and Bridesmaids) and hold well in its second weekend. It may even squeak past $20 million this frame if word-of-mouth really kicks into high gear.
So who wins this weekend? The fact that I've got four movies all making within $4 million of each of other makes it likely for any one of 'em to win this thing, but I'm going with Pixels, though it underperforming and seceding the number one spot to Paper Towns or one of the holdovers wouldn't be a shock at all. Below you can see my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends new releases as well as my projections for this weekends top 6 films.
Pixels
Opening Weekend: $31 million
Total Gross: $78 million
Paper Towns
Opening Weekend: $27 million
Total Gross: $75 million
Southpaw
Opening Weekend: $16 million
Total Gross: $56 million
The Vatican Tapes
Opening Weekend: $900 thousand
Total Gross: $1.7 million
1) Pixels: $31 million
2) Ant-Man $28.5 million
3) Minions: $28.1 million
4) Paper Towns: $27 million
5) Trainwreck: $19.5 million
6) Southpaw: $16 million
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