Despicable Me 2 didn't get as good of a reception as the first movie, but it seems to have resonated on some level with moviegoers considering how long it stuck around at the box office in the summer of 2013. That indicates people aren't weary of this franchise yet, which is good news for Minions, which, being a spin-off, needs help not dropping off substantially in grosses from its predecessors. Puss In Boots, for instance, did solid business, but even then it still lost 38% from the lowest grossing Shrek film (Shrek Forever after, which grossed $237 million), while Penguins of Madagascar bombed terribly this past Thanksgiving, making $83 million in its entire run, which is a sharp 60% drop from Madagascar 3.
Luckily, this Minions spin-off is happening much earlier in the lifespan of the Despicable Me franchise compared to those two spin-offs; Puss In Boots happened ten years after the first Shrek movie, Penguins of Madagascar happened nine years succeeding the first Madagascar while Minions is occurring five years after the first Gru motion picture. Toss in a huge marketing campaign (you really can't go anywhere right now without being bombarded with Minions merchandise) and you've got a likely smash hit. This one should have no trouble clearing $100 million for the weekend, likely to the tune of $113 million, though thanks to a large opening weekend, it probably won't hold on as well as typical summer family movies.
Competing against those Minions is The Gallows, a horror movie also looking to replicate the success of a 2013 movie, though instead of Despicable Me 2, they're aiming to match the huge grosses made by The Conjuring. But whereas that film had hugely positive reviews and some terrifying ads, The Gallows has had no advanced buzz and more middling marketing. One TV ad goes for the ballsy move of setting up the movies antagonist on the level of Freddy Kruger and Jason Voorhees, while most of the other TV ads just show audiences reacting to scary moments from the movie. An opening on par with the $15 million debut of Unfriended, another found footage horror movie from just three months ago, feels about right for The Gallows.
Looking for some sci-fi at your multiplex that doesn't involve Terminators or dinos? Maybe Self/Less is more your style, though terrible reviews and a muddled marketing campaign means the film is being lost in the summer movie shuffle. Sorry Ryan Reynolds, hopefully Deadpool finally gives you a big-budget success. Look for Self/Less to top out at $9 million for the weekend, coming in behind a large number of holdovers.
Speaking of holdovers! Films that have been in the marketplace for more than one week should get a boost this weekend, as last weekends grosses got diluted by 4th of July falling on a Saturday. That hurt the previous box office frame, but it does mean holdovers will have smaller than usual dips for this frame. That should be good news for last weeks champ Inside Out, who should weather incoming family movie titan Minions with good word-of-mouth.
Jurassic World will probably dip around 37-40% for the frame with no new summer blockbusters entering the area, for an $18 million fifth weekend, the seven the best fifth weekend in history. Last weeks new releases should find smaller dips as well, with Terminator: Genisys likely to hold in the 40-45% range. It's opening didn't include Thursday night grosses, meaning this second weekend should look quite favorable when compared to its first frame. Magic Mike XXL, meanwhile, may prosper the most this frame, since it got damaged the most on 4th of July, losing 60% from Friday to Saturday. That certainly diluted its opening considerably, and its strong weekday numbers indicate it could lose as little as 25% in its second weekend.
A brief note; Amy will expand into wide release this weekend, making it only the ninth movie from A24 to go into more than 600 theaters. It's hard to tell how it'll do considering the lack of a concrete theater count and the fact that documentaries rarely catch on with the general public, but its box office performance will be an interesting one to watch.
Below you can see my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends new releases, as well as my projections for the Top 7 movies at this weekends box office.
1) Minions: $113 million
2) Inside Out: $20 million
3) Jurassic World: $18 million
4) The Gallows: $16 million
5) Terminator: Genisys: $15 million
6) Magic Mike XXL: $9.6 million
7) Self/Less: $9 million
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