It's hard to tell which of the four new wide releases this week is the most high-profile. Now, Lionsgates Addicted has too low of a theater count to make much of a presence, but the other three are remarkably difficult in terms of figuring out which one is the largest in terms of box office potential. I'm thinking The Judge may wind up being the biggest of the weeks new releases though, if only because of a large-scale marketing emphasizing the two well-known lead actors, Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall.
Still, that marketing has been pretty confusing, with very somber ads being mixed with extremely light-hearted commercials promoting the films comedic side. Audiences don't mind a film with both drama and comedy, but so much of the films marketing has been super jarring in tone, so that could hurt it. Still, this one should get to the high teens, though it'll be held back by mixed-to-negative reviews.
Dracula Untold is the start of Universals Monster Movie Universe, but it could also be the abrupt end of it if the overwhelmingly negative reviews translate into lackluster box office. While Universal has put together a massive marketing campaign for it, the film just comes across as generic instead of compelling in all of its ads. As said before, reviews for the release are terrible, though a clever release date in the middle of October could help boost grosses a bit, maybe even to just hitting $20 million.
Alexander And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Day is actually the best reviewed of this weeks releases, though that's not a huge factor for family audiences. What is a huge factor is if the film looks entertaining or not, and Disney has done a good job of making the film look memorable enough in ads. This will probably continue the now three month long trend of family movies failing to open over $20 million, but I can't imagine this cost that much, so it should be a decent performer for Disney before its family movie event Big Hero 6 arrives in a few weeks.
I'd never heard of Addicted prior to a few weeks back, and I'm sure most people will find themselves in that position for the rest of their lives due to the meager presence this movie currently has. Lionsgate isn't doing the feature any favors by opening it in only 800 theaters, so I'd be amazed if it opens above $1.5 million. Kill The Messenger is opening in less theaters, though it'll come close ot a wide release in a projected opening weekend theater count of 350 locations. Reviews are mixed for this release, but it'll probably have a decent opening, with maybe $5,000 per theater. Whiplash is also opening in limited release this weekend and should have a solid opening, though with no projected theater count its hard to predict how much it could earn this frame.
Last weeks new releases should hold up alright, with Gone Girl losing about 40% for a $22 million haul that could be good enough to win the weekend. That dip would be a bit higher than the ones experienced by other October dramas like, say, Captain Phillips, but that;s to be expected given the large weekend it had last weekend. Annabelle is tougher to predict, since conventional horror movies usually lose 60% or more in their second weekends, but this one held up a bit better than expected over last weekend, so maybe it'll have a better drop than usual.
Below are my opening weekend and final gross predictions for three of this weeks new releases and my box office Top 5 predictions.
The Judge
Opening Weekend: $19 million
Total Gross: $65 million
Dracula Untold
Opening Weekend: $18.4 million
Total Gross: $45 million
Alexander And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Day
Opening Weekend: $16 million
Total Gross: $60 million
1) Gone Girl: $22 million
2) The Judge: $19 million
3) Dracula Untold: $18.4 million
4) Annabelle: $16.8 million
5) Alexander And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad, Day: $16 million
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