We've got a lot of motion pictures to get through, so let's waste no more time and start things off with....
In terms of other movies that'll make cash this summer, but not enough to crack the top ten biggest movies of the summer, I can say we're likely in for a number of comedies making loads of cash. I wouldn't be surprised if Summer 2017 was like the summers of 2008, 2011 and 2013 where we had at least four different comedies crack $100 million. One such comedy that may just crack that barrier is the new Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy Snatched, whose previews have gotten a positive reception from audiences every time they pop on screenings I attend. Also looking to score counterprogramming bucks in May is Everything, Everything, a romantic drama that will likely do similar numbers to MGM's last two teen-skewing romantic dramas If I Stay and Me Before You.
Don't underestimate the combined power of Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron over Memorial Day weekend for the R-rated comedy Baywatch while Captain Underpants: The Epic First Movie will likely combine a popular source material and being the first animated family movie of the summer to continue DreamWorks Animation's recent box office hit streak. Looking to be an early June horror sleeper hit is the A24 title It Comes At Night, which should do decent numbers and may even exceed the $25 million lifetime cume of A24's other wide release horror movie The VVitch if it gets lucky.
Girls Trip should be yet another comedy hit this summer, especially given how there are no other comedies currently opening in July or August (I know, it's very strange) while Atomic Blonde should close out July 2017 with a strong showing.
Don't be surprised to see Annabelle: Creation have a domestic box office run only slightly below that of its predecessor. The Hitman's Bodyguard just released its first trailer a few weeks ago to notably positive reception and it wouldn't be a surprise if it achieved box office numbers similar to the first two Expendables movies, which, like The Hitman's Bodyguards, are Lionsgate action movies released in late August. To wrap up August, All Saints will likely do solid business, though it's doubtful it'll match the domestic run of fellow late August Christian movie War Room.
In terms of how various arthouse movies could perform this summer, well, that's trickier to ascertain, but I will say that The Big Sick, The Lovers, Dinner With Beatriz, The Beguiled and Wind River all seem like they could have the potential to break out stemming from a variety of factors, including the positive track record of the studios handling them, solid marketing, the star power contained in the films themselves or early positive critical reception that signals they could be crowdpleaser fare.
After severely underestimating the box office prowess of Warner Bros last two attempts to turn public domains property into modern day blockbusters (The Legend Of Tarzan and Kong: Skull Island), I basically owe King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword a place in the Wild Cards category instead of the Potential Misfires section. Plus, WB has certainly been marketing the hell out of this new King Arthur incarnation. Fellow mid-May blockbuster Alien: Covenant also feels like it could go either way. Yes, the marketing's had some well-made trailers and viral videos and this technically the first out-and-out Alien movie in 20 years, which should create an event movie status for this one, but in those two decades we've had two Alien vs. Predator movies and a Prometheus offshoot that might have diluted the brand's appeal.
It's smart scheduling to put the Tupac biopic All Eyez On Me in the middle of June where there's no other major dramas around to compete with but the marketing seems a bit more generic at the moment which may cause it to be lost in the summertiem shuffle. Opening the same weekend as that rap-based movie is Rough Night, an R-rated comedy whose darker comedy nature and lack of a major comedic A-lister (though it does have Scarlett Johansson and beloved comedic figures Illana Glazer and Kate McKinnon in tow).may see it stumbling financially. After being bumped up to June 28th from mid-August, it's obvious Sony/TriStar want Baby Driver to replicate the box office of Sony/Columbia's fellow late June original small-scale feature The Shallows. Baby Driver doesn't have that shark movies eye-catching premise but its marketing has been distinctive to make it a possible sleeper hit.
Will Valerian And The City Of A Thousand Planets be the next Jupiter Ascending or the next Guardians Of The Galaxy? I have a hunch its box office will likely end up in between those two titles, though it's seriously utter madness to open this one domestically directly against Dunkirk. We've had a lot of overdue sequels fail to live up to the domestic cumes of their predecessors and it's likely An Inconvenient Sequel follows that pattern, though it could break out if it gets strong reviews. It's also unclear at this point how Detroit could play since it doesn't have a lot of A-list talent in front of the camera (though having a Star Wars lead in your movie doesn't hurt) and is based on a darker real life event without an inspirational angle to it, which is usually what gets these dramas to big box office. Open Road Films recent string of box office duds doesn't bode well for late summer romantic drama Midnight Sun, The pre-Labor Day weekend brings two titles that could go either way as they mimic past box office success seen in the final weeks of summer. Polaroid wants to be the next Don't Breathe but it's marketing will make all the difference on whether or not this gritty version of the Goosebumps book Say Cheese And Die! goes the distance. Finally, Villa Capri wants to replicate the success of Broad Green Pictures late summer movie about two elderly actors getting into shenanigans, A Walk In The Woods, but this is another one where the marketing is gonna make all the difference in the world.
And now for the movies that look like they have an uphill climb to conquer this summer. With very little promotion by its side as of this writing, Lowriders will likely be a misfire for mini-studio BH Tilt, while that same weekend brings The Wall, which also has recieved very little in the way of promotion despite having a massively popular wrestler John Cena) with a large social media following at its disposal. Tom Cruise has starred in one only non-Mission: Impossible movie (Edge Of Tomorrow) that's cracked $100 million domestically since 2005 and I'm doubtful The Mummy will be the second. The first trailer for 47 Meters Down makes it look like a knock-off of The Shallows, so expect that one to falter. I doubt Amityville: The Awakening even gets released this summer considering we're less than two months out from its release and there's been zero advertising for it.
Speaking of summertime horror movies, Wish Upon, also seems like it'll stumble considering mini-studio Broad Green Pictures has been unable to launch a hit in ages. If you're looking for an animated movie this season that'll likely stumble, it's probably The Emoji Movie, one that's generated scorn from the denizens of the interweb and I've noticed even kids who catch the trailer on theatrical screenings distinctly seem "meh" on the whole movie. Despite being the sole big blockbuster of August 2017, it's likely The Dark Tower fails to kick-start the multi-media franchise it hopes to spawn, especially given Sony's dismal recent track record with properly marketing blockbuster fare.
While late summer has sometimes delivered a sleeper hit family movie (like Planes from 2013), it's doubtful The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature even matches the cume of the original Nut Job movie. The long-delayed drama Tulip Fever is trying to stand out from the pack by promoting itself as a period era steamy thriller but this feels like it could get overwhelmed by an abundance of arthouse fare (like Wind River) opening around the same time. Around Labor Day, Leap! finally bows and is unlikely to make much of an impact if its generic marketing continues onward unchanged while Renegades feels like it'll suffer a similar poor box office fate to the last EuropaCorp title that opened over a Labor Day weekend, The Transporter Refueled.
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