Thursday, January 8, 2015

Liam Neeson Likely To Take The Box Office Again Over Hobbits And Martin Luther King Jr. (Box Office Predictions)

Time for another edition of Box Office Predictions, where I predict what the forthcoming weekend box office holds for new releases and holdovers alike!

Taken 3 is the biggest of the weekends newest offerings, with Liam Neesons newest venture into pummeling criminals garnering abysmal reviews that don't help balance the negative reputation the previous Taken film received. However, Liam Neesons PG-13 action offering released in between these two films, Non-Stop, did very well, demonstrating he's still got some financial pull. That may be able to get the film past $30 million, though any more than that I'll be totally shocked.

After two weeks doing solid business in limited release, Selma goes into wide release as it expands into 2179 theaters. As you might have heard, the feature has tremendously positive reviews on its side (100% on Rotten Tomatoes currently through over 80 reviews) and massive awards buzz. It's very likely the film manages to get some huge Oscar nominations come next Thursday, which will give the film some great box office stamina.

For opening weekend, the film should fare well, and I think there's a good chance it cracks $20 million. I'll go just beneath it, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this one hit over $100 million considering all the positive word-of-mouth and awards attention Selma has gotten.

Inherent Vice is another 2014 movie going into wide release, though it's just barely applicable for being called a wide release considering it's theater count for the weekend is 645 theaters. This Paul Thomas Anderson film has gotten divisive reactions from critics, but has at least gotten some prominent awards attention that's been smartly highlighted in it's extremely distinctive marketing campaign. The smaller theater count ensures it'll have a nice per-theater-average, though I doubt it'll go into more theaters after this weekend.

The holiday season movie holdovers should have a varying amount of dips, with one's like The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies and Into The Woods that had harsher dips holding better than one's that had minuscule holds like Night At The Museum 3. One that should hold extremely well is The Imitation Game, which expands to 1566 theaters this frame, just a few days ahead of it's likely barrage of Oscar nominations.

Below, check out my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends newcomers, as well as my predictions for this weekends Top 10!

Taken 3
Opening Weekend: $30 million
Total Gross: $77 million

Selma
Opening Weekend: $19 million
Total Gross: $110 million

Inherent Vice
Opening Weekend: $2.9 million
Total Gross: $10 million

1) Taken 3: $30 million
2) Selma: $19 million
3) The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies: $12 million
4) Into The Woods: $11.9 million
5) Unbroken: $10.4 million
6) Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb: $8.9 million
7) Annie: $7 million
8) The Imitation Game: $6.1 million
9) The Woman In Black 2: The Angel Of Death: $5.7 million
10) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay: Part One: $3.5 million

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