Summer 2018 Box Office Predictions (Part Two)

An image from Won't You Be My Neighbor

Now that we've looked at my predictions for the ten biggest movies of Summer 2018, it's time to look at all of the other wide releases of Summer 2018 and what kind of box office I currently think they'll drum up. As in years past, these remaining wide release titles will be split into three categories: Likely Hits, a categorization that should be self-explanatory, Wild Cards, films that could easily become either hits or flops, and Potential Box Office Misfires, films that currently seem like they'll miss the mark at the domestic box office.

Whose ready to dive into a whole bunch of movies? Let's get right into it, shall we?

An image from Crazy Rich Asians

Likely Hits

In the second weekend of the summer, the newest Eugenio Derbez vehicle will arrive in the form of Overboard. Derbez found notable box office success in his last two leading man vehicles and pairing him up with Anna Farris in a remake of a well-known comedy should lead to further solid box office numbers. One week later, another comedy, Life of The Party, will likely end up being the newest box office hit for consistently successful comedy star Melissa McCarthy. Look for Book Club to likely work as small-scale light-hearted counter-programming amidst a sea of big blockbusters. June 2018 will kick off with Adrift, the only romantic drama for miles in the marketplace, which, combined with the winning streak its parent studio, STX Entertainment, has been on lately, bodes well for its box office prospects. A24 will release the first horror movie of the summer on June 8th with Hereditary, which stands a good chance at breaking out in a notable way.

I shall make an exception to my rule of only covering wide releases for this column by noting that limited release documentary Won't You Be My Neighbor? stands a very good chance at breaking out in a big way, this feature is drumming up massive amounts of buzz at the moment that will likely lead it to being a breakout title. Meanwhile, Uncle Drew is also drumming up plenty of interest prior to its release thanks to its use of famous basketball players and its titular character originating in a series of well-liked Pepsi commercials. Don't be surprised if this one breaks out in a big way. A few days after Uncle Drew will be The First Purge, which will likely break the streak of each Purge movie making more than its predecessor domestically, but diving into the origin of The Purge should get the interest of enough moviegoers to make it a solid box office performer. I also have a good hunch that Skyscraper will fare quiet well this summer if only because of Dwayne Johnson's strong track record starring in PG-13 blockbuster fare.

The newest Mark Wahlberg action movie, Mile 22, stands a good shot at finding some late summer success due to Wahlberg frequently faring well in this kind of escapist action fare. Opening the same weekend as Mile 22 is the comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, which pairs up Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon, a duo that, along with a marketing campaign that's so far been solid, should lead to some noteworthy box office figures. Crazy Rich Asians is likely going to be yet another comedy that performs well this summer, thanks to it being based on popular source material as well as a late summertime date that allows it to face little competition in the weeks after its release. Opening against Crazy Rich Asians is another Melissa McCarthy vehicle, The Happytime Murders. A noir comedy starring puppets (you read that right), this one could really stand out in the marketplace if marketed properly and pairing up such a unique premise with a comedy box office powerhouse like Melissa McCarthy seems like a recipe for box office success.

Wild Cards

After two box office duds in a row, director Jason Reitman will try to regain some of his Up In The Air/Juno box office mojo with Tully, which Focus Features is opening directly into wide release. This one's garnered strong reviews, but will it be able to attract mainstream moviegoers right out of the gate? Opening in wide release right away means it won't have much time to develop legs, it's gotta prove itself right away. One week afterward we get the thriller Breaking In, which could find box office success in being the only thriller of note in the marketplace but whose premise might not be distinctive enough to attract moviegoers. Helping to kick off June is the newest movie from the Jackass crew, Action Point. Like the Hotel Transylvania movies, the Jackass films keep on exceeding expectations at the box office. This new one could very well do that, even if it seems to lack the concrete hooks of 3D and a raunchy elderly figure that the last two Jackass films had. Upgrade, the first movie from the revamped studio BH Tilt, is gonna try to be grimy B-movie counterprogramming, but whether it can reach the box office heights of BH Tilt's biggest movies up to this point (The Belko Experiment and The Darkness) remains to be seen.

Hotel Artemis will try to be a rare original project in the early summertime marketplace and its big cast could attract a solid amount of attention even if it's unclear if Global Road Films (formerly known as Open Road Films) has the marketing prowess necessary to make this one a hit. Meanwhile, I'm not sure the brand name Superfly has a lot of draw to modern moviegoers of any age, though the promotional materials for the project thus far have been distinctive enough that it may be able to stand out in the marketplace. Opening the same weekend as Superfly is Tag, which doesn't have any big box office powerhouse comedy stars in its cast (Ed Helms is closest) and faces a marketplace crowded with comedies, but does have a distinctive premise to its name. Sicario: Day of The Soldado will try to make Sicario into the next franchise on June 29th and both the strong word-of-mouth from the first film and a smart release date positioning it to play over the 4th of July holiday could lead this one to success even if the marketing has received a mixed reception so far.

July 20th brings two sequels that could totally go either way at the box office, not exactly the ideal situation for any follow-up movie. Denzel Washington stars in his first ever sequel with The Equalizer 2, following up a reasonably well-liked first movie, but it's hard to tell if that first one had any staying power in the marketplace four years after its release. The fact that Washington has to open in between new Dwayne Johnson and Tom Cruise tentpoles also means this one will have a ton of competition to face. Meanwhile, Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again follows up the first Mamma Mia! from ten years ago. Being more light-hearted fare in the middle of a July crowded with action blockbusters could help it stand out but audiences might see it as just a cashgrab. The newest YA-novel movie adaptation, The Darkest Minds, will bow on the first weekend of August and at this juncture, it feels like the rest of the marketing campaign will help determine whether this is the next Maze Runner or the next 5th Wave. Sony just recently moved the Studio 8 film Alpha to Agusut 17th, a smart move that'll allow this difficult to market film (which is an original feature making minimal use of dialogue) time to stick around at the box office through Labor Day weekend. Finally, the following weekend brings Three Seconds and Replicas. The former is being distributed by Aviron Pictures, who got their first two movies to open to over $10 million, so don't count out Three Seconds, while Replicas could make use of Keanu Reeves post-John Wick star power to become a late summertime hit.

An image from Show Dogs

Potential Box Office Misfires

Something interesting about this summer's slate of movies is that there really isn't any blockbuster title on the market that seems to scream out to me as an inevitable box office dud. Whereas last Summer had titles like The Mummy, The Dark Tower or Valerian that seemed like inevitable big-budget misfires, or the summer before that had the likes of Warcraft and a new Ninja Turtles movie nobody asked for, this summer's blockbuster slate seems more robust, mainly because titles are being spread out more and most of the sequels are to films people actually enjoyed like Deadpool or Jurassic World.

Still, that doesn't mean the summer is totally devoid of films that seem likely to come in under expectations at the box office. One such title is Show Dogs, the first family movie of the summer that's being marketed in a manner that makes it apparent that its chief target audience is the youngest of children. With little to appeal to adults and looking derivative of past family movies, it's unlikely this one barks up big bucks at the box office. On June 15th, Vertical Entertainment will give John Travolta his leading man role in a wide release in eight years with Gotti. Two months to go until its release, there's minimal marketing to this title and it's likely it gets lost in the June 2018 shuffle. Closing out that same month is The Hustle, a remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels starring Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson. Those two have managed to star in a number of box office hits over the years, but the box office track record of MGM remakes is dismal and opening this comedy against Uncle Drew seems like a poor move.

Though the TV show its based on is highly popular, it feels likely Teen Titans! Go To The Movies ends up underperforming, mainly due to it opening it in between family movies Hotel Transylvania 3 and Christopher Robin as well as the mixed box office track record Warner Bros. has with family movies. There's a chance Searching manages to break out when it kicks off it's marketing, but there's a lot of competition to face on its August 3rd release date and it feels like easily the most vulnerable new release on that day. One week later, a pair of live-action family movies about dogs bow, one being A.X.L., the other being Dog Days. There's a chance either or both of these titles could surprise, but it feels more likely they end up getting overshadowed by Christopher Robin, which opens a week later. Bleecker Street is apparently premiering their Papillion remake into wide release on August 24th and the companies poor track record with handling movies that open in wide releases doesn't bode well for Papillion's box office prospects. Opening against that remake is Slender Man, which Sony wants to be the next Don't Breathe, and maybe it can given the dearth of horror fare in August 2018, but the marketing so far has earned more scorn from the general public than affection. Finally, the only current wide release set for Labor Day weekend is Kin, an action thriller starring Jack Reynor, Zoe Kravitz and James Franco. Without any marketing to go on, Kin could end up being a surprise, but for now, the box office prospects of a science-fiction thriller whose biggest actor is James Franco aren't great.