The most high-profile of these new releases is The Boy Next Door, a thriller from Blumhouse Productions, a production company responsible for a diverse slate of films ranging from Best Picture nominee Whiplash to The Purge franchise. Universal is obviously hoping for results similar to those successful Purge films here, and while the ads haven't been quite as memorable as those horror films, they have been good at making the film look steamy and thrilling, as well as emphasizing the presence of Jennifer Lopez. Look for this one to debut in the high teens, likely around $16 million.
Things get a little uglier with the other two new releases, as both have some terrible marketing campaigns and reviews that make them doomed financially. Mortdecai looks to easily continue Johnny Depps losing streak at the box office, with puzzling posters (how is Johnny Depp with a mustache supposed to make me wanna see your movie?) and bafflingly unfunny ads not working in favor of what commercials proclaim is "The first big comedy of the year". This may just get past $10 million, but I doubt even that's assured.
Strange Magic is also stuck with a terrible ad campaign, but at least this one's got a compelling history. The film was deep into production once Lucasfilm got bought by Disney, in fact, it was too far into production for the Mouse House to cancel it. So they let it get finished, and are releasing it with obvious confidence, as can be seen by them releasing it under their Touchstone Pictures banner and only announcing the project two months prior to it's release. As you can imagine, that hasn't left a lot of time for a compelling marketing campaign, which includes a poster that's missing the films lead characters. I'm gonna be amazed if this one even gets over $8 million for the weekend, which is one of the worst results for a major animated feature in recent memory.
As I said in the first paragraph, American Sniper will handily lead the box office again, though thanks to Thursday night screenings goosing it's Friday numbers, this one should have a second weekend dip a bit larger than the typical drama. Fury lost 44% back in October, while Lone Survivor lost 41% in January 2014; something just a bit bigger, maybe about 49%, should suit American Sniper just fine.
Paddington, riding a wave of positive critical and audience word-of-mouth, should manage to have a better second hold than the 37% dip experienced by 2014's Martin Luther King Jr. family film, The Nut Job, likely around 33% for a $12 million second weekend. The Wedding Ringer should also fare well compared to a 214 MLK weekend feature, this time Ride Along, which dipped 48% in it's second frame. Look for Ringer to have a similar dip.
Selma should have another good dip, maybe around 25% for a $6 million third weekend, while fellow Best Picture nominee, Whiplash, should finally go wide this weekend. Deadline said it'd be going into over 1000 theaters, though Sony Pictures Classic doesn't report theater count ahead of time, so it's difficult to tell how well it'll do this weekend. The film does have tons of awards hype though, which should be good enough for a solid showing in wide release.
Below you can find my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends new releases, as well as my predictions for this weekends Top 10 at the box office!
The Boy Next Door
Opening Weekend: $16 million
Total Gross: $40 million
Mortdecai
Opening Weekend: $9.2 million
Total Gross: $24 million
Strange Magic
Opening Weekend: $8 million
Total Gross: $20 million
1) American Sniper: $45 million
2) The Boy Next Door: $16 million
3) Paddington: $12 million
4) The Wedding Ringer: $10.5 million
5) Mortdecai: $9.2 million
6) Taken 3: $9 million
7) Strange Magic: $8 million
8) Selma: $6.4 million
9) The Imitation Game: $5.9 million
10) Into The Woods: $4.3 million
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