American Sniper Headed For Gargantuan Opening Weekend (Box Office Predictions)

Quite a jam-packed weekend, huh? A 2014 film with tons of hype headed for wide release, and three new releases trying to get as much cash as they possibly can. We got a lot to look at, so let's not waste any more time! Onto predicting this weekends box office winners and losers!

American Sniper is the most-talked about new release this weekend, and for good reason. This things gotten a ton of buzz, with many predicting it can follow up it's humongous, record-breaking limited release with a $50+ million opening weekend over the four-day holiday frame. It getting prominent Oscar nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor only sweetens the pot.

So where's it gonna go for the weekend? Analytically, the film bears more than a passing resemblance to last yeas Lone Survivor, another military themed feature released in January to a great opening weekend. Snipers done better in limited release though, giving it buzz that only grew when those major Oscar nominations came in. Lone Survivor opened to $37 million, and given that this is a 3-day holiday weekend too, American Sniper shouldn't have a problem crossing $40 million.

Trying to also replicate the success of a January 2014 feature is The Wedding Ringer, a Kevin Hart vehicle looking to see if the success of Harts previous smash hit Ride Along can be done again. Ads aren't nearly as memorable or notable as Ride Along though, and Josh Gad isn't quite as intriguing of a co-star to Kevin Hart as Ice Cube. Still, the state of comedy has been dire for a while now (only one comedy has opened to over $30 million in the 7 months since 22 Jump Street) and that coupled with Hart's fanbase may get this one just under the $30 million mark.

Going for the non-R rated crowd is Paddington, which is looking to take advantage of how the family movies at Christmas (sans Into The Woods) are fading from theaters. The cuddly star should appeal to kids, while great reviews will get parents and non-family audience members to give the feature a chance despite a repellent marketing campaign. The Nut Job (which also opened in January 2014. I'm noticing a trend here.) has the current record for a family movie opening weekend, $19 million, in January. There's a good chance Paddington matches or tops that figure.

Blackhat looks to be the odd man out for the weekend. Those looking for action at the movies can see American Sniper or Taken 3, while those seeking a dramatic feature have Selma, The Imitation Game and other films that have Oscar attention. Even with the presence of Chris Hemsworth, Viola Davis and director Michael Mann, an inconsistent marketing campaign and poor reviews will keep this one from getting much higher than the low-teens.

Last weekends victor, Taken 3, will have a harsh dip on Friday, but look for it to stabilize on Saturday and have a nice dip on Sunday (during a holiday weekend where the holiday falls on Monday, movies tend to hold a bit better on Sunday) to give the film a second weekend dip just under 50%. Another film from last weekend, Selma, will likely have a small dip, though a lack of Oscar nominations and a notable theater expansion will keep it from having a truly miraculous second weekend hold.

Speaking of Oscar nominations, several of the Best Picture contenders are expanding their theater counts, though none are expanding into wide release (three of them, American Sniper, Selma and The Imitation Game are already in over 600 theaters). Foxcatcher, which got recognized in Best Director and Best Actor, will go into 759 locations, though the films dark tone and slow pace will likely keep it from connecting with general audiences.

Below you can find my opening weekend and total gross predictions for this weekends new releases, as well as my predictions for this weekends Top 10.

American Sniper
Opening Weekend: $44 million
Total Gross: $150 million

The Wedding Ringer
Opening Weekend: $29 million
Total Gross: $85 million

Paddington
Opening Weekend: $19 million
Total Gross: $68 million

Blackhat
Opening Weekend: $11 million
Total Gross: $28 million

1) American Sniper: $44 million
2) The Wedding Ringer: $29 million
3) Taken 3: $20 million
4) Paddington: $19 million
5) Blackhat: $11 million
6) Selma: $9.2 million
7) The Imitation Game: $7.4 million
8) Into The Woods: $6.8 million
9) The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies: $5.6 million
10) Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb: $4 million