Summer 2026 Box Office Predictions

We Bought a Zoo 2 looks weird

"Summertime, and the livin' is easy," so sang Ella Fitzgerald all those years ago. That truth is rearing its head once more as the summer moviegoing season approaches. For the first time in the 2020s (exempting 2023, when Barbenheimer, a second Spider-Verse movie, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 were all on the agenda), this feels like the first summer moviegoing season of the decade that's really bringing the heat. There's a wider array of titles available each week (heck, August 2026 will bring a new weekly big-screen comedy), several films this summer aren't just aimed at nostalgic men, and opportunities for major sleeper hits clearly exist (c'mon, I Love Boosters).

Most importantly, the 2026 domestic box office has been on a hot streak even before the first weekend of May officially kicks off the summer moviegoing season. Project Hail Mary, Hoppers, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, plenty of movies have excelled this year. That momentum looks like it will continue into the hottest moviegoing season of any year. What films will dominate that season? That's what I'm here to predict today. As I try to do every year, I've listed below my predictions for the ten biggest movies of the summer at the domestic box office (ranked from tenth to first).

Each film has an explanation for why I think it'll perform a certain way as well as predictions for its domestic opening weekends and domestic final grosses. It's time to get down to business and explore what could be a massive summertime for movie theaters. Let's kick things off by looking at my prediction for summer 2026's tenth-biggest movie, which comes from the architect of the modern summer blockbuster...

10. Disclosure Day

Believe it or not, it's been a long while since director Steven Spielberg had a summertime box office hit that wasn't the fourth Indiana Jones adventure. Hell, even back in 2002, when Minority Report grossed a respectable grossed a solid $132 million (the 17th biggest movie of the year domestically), that was considered a mild disappointment. If future Lisa Laman came back in time to tell me that this got knocked out of the summer top ten by newer youth-skewing movies like The Backrooms or One Night Only, I'd believe you. The big advantage Spielberg's Disclosure Day has, though, is Universal Pictures. This studio has gotten quite adept at selling big budget blockbusters, and they've done a great job so far with prominent, memorable trailers and posters. Super 8 got to $35.4 million on opening weekend 15 years ago. IMAX ticket prices and years of inflation should get Disclosure Day to a slightly higher debut.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $41 million 

Domestic Gross Prediction: $125 million

9. Scary Movie 6

The trailer's got a transphobic joke and looks like dogshit visually. Also, it has all the goods to become a legacy sequel hit. It's actually been a while since the Scary Movie saga was back in theaters, the promotional campaign is riding the coattails of 2025 hits like Sinners and especially Weapons, it'll undoubtedly get a strong third weekend boost from Father's Day celebrations. Three of the original Scary Movie installments got to $40+ million domestic bows before we even take inflation into account. Expect this one to follow in the same vicinity and, hey, maybe even give the theatrical comedy movie a bit of a boost. If only they could've done all that without the "they/them" jokes and cancel culture moaning...

Opening Weekend Prediction: $49 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $135 million

8. Moana

Two 2025 movies suggest very different outcomes for the live-action Moana remake at the box office. Both of these films were PG-rated titles that had trailers full of imagery people derided as hideous and an eyesore. The first of those is A Minecraft Movie. All those pre-release complaints were nothing compared to the allure of seeing a Minecraft film adaptation as well as Jack Black's appeal. Then there's Snow White and its hideous Seven Dwarfs. That feature couldn't overcome the pervasive hostility directed at its drab and off-putting visuals.

On the one hand, Moana has way more name recognition with today's kids than Snow White. On the other hand, Dwayne Johnson circa. 2026 is no Jack Black and, most damningly, this isn't a novel film. A Minecraft Movie was the first time Creepers and Minecraft Villagers appeared in a movie. The Moana trailers make it clear this is just the 2016 animated film again, but with less color. At least The Lion King and The Little Mermaid arrived decades after the original animated films to offset their inherently familair narratives. Even the youngest kids who can't stop singing "How Far I'll Go" may just opt to stay home and watch the original. There's probably enough gas in the Moana tank to keep this from totally capsizing like Snow White, but there's also enough problems here (including opening in between Minions and The Odyssey) to suggest a Minecraft-sized surprise rebound is not on the horizon.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $60 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $145 million

7. Supergirl

Given that we just had a Superman movie last summer, another motion picture focusing on a Krypton-originating superhero like Supergirl isn't going to have immense novelty to the general public. Additionally, Supergirl's marketing is emphasizing a darker, more anarchic tone that could be less appealing while its late June 2026 date means it'll have to contend with so many July 2026 juggernauts like The Odyssey and Spider-Man. On the other hand, audiences really warmed to Superman, and the Supergirl marketing has effectively given the titular lead some relatable impulses (she wants to save her doggie!) that potential audiences can latch onto. There's also no other major action films over 4th of July weekend this year, so if Supergirl scores some good word of mouth it should still do fine. If Black Adam could get to $67 million on opening weekend, Supergirl should be able to debut a smidge higher. It'd be guaranteed the biggest domestic opening ever, though, if Comet the Super-Horse was appearing in this project...

Opening Weekend Prediction: $74 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $183 million

6. The Mandalorian and Grogu

This is the biggest question mark of the summer. Can the first theatrical Star Wars movie in seven years prove lucrative and profitable? Right now, signs point to "not really." The marketing for this feature has been largely uninspired. More urgently, it doesn't look especially accessible to the general public given that it's rooted in a Disney+ show and its key "new" characters (Rotta the Hutt and Embo) are all Clone Wars veterans. Even the movie's imagery looks indistinguishable from the Mandalorian show, a bizarre element that means people will likely mistake it for a streaming show when they see TV ads for it. Perhaps the final six or so weeks of Disney's marketing campaign will push this one to bigger numbers. For now, expect this to perform largely like Solo: A Star Wars Story, which also debuted over Memorial Day weekend in 2018.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $85 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $200 million

5. The Devil Wears Prada 2

It's cool that this year's summer kick-off movie is not a Marvel movie or even an action film, but rather The Devil Wears Prada 2. This new Anne Hathaway/Meryl Streep title should also have a domestic haul outgrossing past summer kick-off titles like Thunderbolts* and The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Disney/20th Century Studios has applied the same "absence makes the heart grow fonder" approach for this sequel that the Mouse House usually reserves for animated movies. That lengthy wait for more Devil Wears Prada should work like gangbusters in making this a must-see movie for friend groups across the country. Few hits look as surefire this summer as The Devil Wears Prada 2. The first movie opened to $27.53 million over its three-day opening weekend. Expect this sequel to more than triple that debut in its summer kick-off opening weekend.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $86 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $235 million

4. Minions and Monsters

Minions and Monsters apparently had especially strong recognition and social media buzz amongst this year's Super Bowl ads, beating all other movie commercials at the game by a massive margin. Those little yellow freaks remain incredibly popular, as seen by Despicable Me 4 amassing a gargantuan $972 million worldwide. Every post-2010 Despicable Me and Minions installment has grossed $336-370 million without fail in North America (save for 2017's Despicable Me 3). Even with this one's 1920s setting and lack of the three Minion leads of the last two Minions movies, it's doubtful this money-printing machine will end anytime soon. I'll even go a bit more pessimistic and suggest this one ends up being the lowest-grossing Minions installment ever in North America, yet that would still be more than enough to catapult it to being one of the summer's biggest movies.

Three-Day Opening Weekend Prediction: $72 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $310 million

3. Toy Story 5

I'm torn on Toy Story 5. On the one hand, the Toy Story name is still beloved across generations and the planet. Disney's also gotten super skilled at launching animated movie sequels that cater to kids but also nostalgic adults. However, I'm not sure there's as much novelty in a fifth Toy Story movie as there is in, say, the first Zootopia movie in a decade. Toy Story 3 and 4 each made more than the last and $410+ million domestically alone. I'm seeing a bit of a decrease from those two movies, given that a post-1999 Toy Story sequel is no longer an inherently special prospect. Plus, Minions opens in theaters 13 days into its theatrical run, so it'll have way more family movie competition to face than Toy Story 4 (which basically had the 4th of July holiday weekend all to itself when it came to families). Still, Buzz and Woody have anchored four beloved moneymakers. Don't expect that streak to suddenly collapse here.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $104 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $335 million

2. The Odyssey

Three years ago, Oppenheimer delivered a mighty box office run that shattered all pre-release expectations and gave director Christopher Nolan his biggest non-Dark Knight movie ever at the box office. After conquering multiplexes and the Best Picture Oscar, Nolan's back with a star-studded take on The Odyssey. This fantasy epic cost a pretty penny to make ($250 million versus Oppenheimer's $100 million), but that's a moot point given that it should be a massive box office performer. Everyone knows this story, yet there hasn't been a definitive modern Odyssey movie, a great balancing act that gives Nolan's latest brand name recognition and scarce-based specialness. Given that this is an action film with lots of splashy special effects and (presumably) a PG-13 rating, opening above both Oppenheimer and $100 million should be a cinch. Once more, the summer box office belongs to Nolan.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $131 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $425 million

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Audiences have been chilly to the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe movies, but Spider-Man titles are a whole different breed of blockbuster cinema. People absolutely adore seeing this web-crawler on the big screen, as seen by the last four Spider-Man movies (animated and live-action) securing either A or A+ CinemaScore grades. Expect that love for Spidey to continue at the end of the summer when Spider-Man: Brand New Day drops. No Way Home got so many more people in love with Tom Holland's take on the character, while this particular superhero hasn't been overexposed or diluted via the streaming shows. Plus, the presence of The Punisher and The Hulk should give it something new compared to past MCU Spider-Man solo movies. 

It feels...off to predict Brand New Day will top the summer 2026 box office. A new Spider-Man reigning supreme feels a bit too traditional given that unexpected movies (Barbie, Top Gun: Maverick, Inside Out 2) have taken the summer box office crown domestically in the 2020s. Maybe something else on this list pops off and topples the web-crawler. For now, though, I'm having a hard time picturing anything else surpassing this motion picture in North America. If it falls 42% from Spider-Man: No Way Home's domestic gross, it still gets to roughly $470 million domestically. That sounds about right for this title, which should have no trouble keeping the good financial times rolling for the Spider-Man saga. Watch this space, though, if Spa Weekend or something breaks out and dominates the summer 2026 box office.

Opening Weekend Prediction: $165 million

Domestic Gross Prediction: $475 million