Summer 2024 Box Office Predictions

An image from Ryusuke Hamaguchi's new movie Evil Does Not Exist, which hits U.S. theaters on May 3. It did not make my list of projected top ten biggest Summer 2024 movies, but I just wanted to put it on people's radars because I've heard great things and Hamaguchi is a filmmaking champ.

Well folks, it's time again, For the tenth time in the history of Land of the Nerds (Jesus, time goes fast), it's time for a summer box office predictions column. Which movies will be at the top of summer 2024? Which movies could struggle? We'll get to the bottom of some of those questions here as I explore my projections for the top 10 biggest movies of summer 2024. It's still up in the air what movies will be go the distance as the most lucrative titles of the season, but what is clear is that summer 2024 is bound to be a very odd and muted summer. As I wrote on Collider a while back, major studios are killing this industry. They sent titles like Apartment 7A and Turtles All The Way Down to Paramount+ and Max, respectively, instead of putting them in theaters. They refuse to pay artists liveable wages, thus causing a work stoppage that Hollywood is still reeling from. 

Then there are all the big studios just combining and reducing competition in the marketplace. In 2016, 20th Century Fox provided six movies to theaters during the summer. In 2015, they provided five features during the same season, ditto for summer 2014. This summer, they'll only be providing two theatrical releases, while in the summer of 2024 they only had one title (The Boogeyman) hitting theaters. Thanks Disney for gobbling up that studio and costing thousands of working-class people their jobs! With major studios actively hurting the theatrical film industry through all these means (and tons of other practices), the theatrical marketplace can never hope to get to pre-COVID levels. People want to go to the movies. Major studios are failing them, as seen by the sparse summer 2024 slate.

Anyway! Leftist rant out of the way, let's look at what titles could be the ten biggest movies of summer 2024! Unfortunately, not a ton of original blockbusters or even pre-existing IP getting adapted for the big screen for the first time, so not a ton of chances for sleeper hits this year. Onward with my projections for the ten biggest movies of the summer! Remember, all opening weekend predictions are for three-day openings unless noted otherwise!

10. The Fall Guy

The Hollywood Reporter divulged a few days ago that The Fall Guy is headed for a $35 million opening weekend as the kick-off movie for summer 2024. That sounds about right to me. Sure, Fall Guy leads Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are hot off their respective roles in the 2023 Barbenheimer craze that brought them to new box office heights as performers. However, one summer's hit does not automatically mean you'll mimic that success the next time the temperatures start to rise. Just as Tom Cruise, who couldn't make the Top Gun: Maverick lightning of 2022 strike twice for Dead Reckoning in 2023. Aside from their summer 2023 hits, a $35-ish million bow for The Fall Guy would be right in the typical box office range for Gosling and Blunt movies. That would make Fall Guy the biggest non-Barbie domestic opening ever for Gosling and the biggest non-Oppenheimer/Quiet Place domestic opening ever for Blunt. Plus, it'd be in the same neighborhood as the $30 million bow for director David Leitch's last movie, Bullet Train. Maybe something slightly north of $35 million sounds about right for this one, which will hope to have the legs of a romantic-comedy rather than a typical first weekend of May tentpole.

Projected Opening Weekend: $37 million

Projected Domestic Total: $110 million

9  Twisters 

The coin toss of the summer. On the one hand, nobody needed a Twister sequel. The original isn't that well-known or driving up a massive fanbase these days. Also, it's opening one week before Deadpool & Wolverine. That having been said, Glen Powell appears to be on a hot streak right now and this being a PG-13 disaster movie might give it enough unique qualities to separate it from R-rated superhero movie Deadpool & Wolverine. World War Z and San Andreas also demonstrated that underestimating disaster movies can be a big mistake. I doubt this breaks out big time (and that inexplicable $200 million budget looms large over the proceedings) but Twisters will probably gust up enough enthusiasm to exceed lower expectations. 

Projected Opening Weekend: $44 million

Projected Domestic Total: $135 million

8. Furiosa

This and Twisters are the two movies of the summer that could go anywhere. Mad Max: Fury Road was a solid box office performer in May 2015 (it was way leggier than usual for an R-rated summer blockbuster sequel), but its gross in the neighborhood of $155 million domestically wasn't massive (it's debatable if the feature turned any kind of profit in its worldwide run). In the years since, Fury Road became an Oscar juggernaut and one of the most beloved action films in history. However, is all that hubbub just confined to internet geeks? Nine years later, will a prequel abandoning Charlize Theron going to lure in all the Fury Road fans? Also, franchise newcomer Chris Hemsworth is kind of cursed as a non-Marvel leading man. Outside of the MCU (exempting Star Trek, which he only cameoed in), he's only appeared in one movie that cleared $150 million domestically. I'll err on the side of caution and say this will narrowly become his second title ever to clear that mark. That would also mean this becomes Anya Taylor-Joy first-ever non-Shyamalan live-action movie to exceed $41.2 million domestically. Two lead performers who aren't huge outside of Mario and Thor movies does have me wondering if this Furiosa will have a ceiling in how big it gets...but then again, perhaps all the Fury Road goodwill is much more potent than one expects.

Projected Opening Weekend: $56 million

Projected Domestic Total: $155 million

7. Bad Boys: Ride or Die 

The biggest problem Bad Boys: Ride or Die has to face is that it's another Bad Boys movie. Bad Boys For Life in 2020 got a box office boost by being the first installment in the franchise in 17 years. Ride or Die, meanwhile, is a lot less special. It's promoting itself as more of what you'd like. It's hard to imagine this making as much money domestically as the last Bad Boys, but offering more of the same does mean this entry will pull in a lot of longtime fans of this franchise. No records will get shattered here, but Ride or Die will do fine this summer and handily exceed the domestic hauls of the first two Bad Boys.

Projected Opening Weekend: $55 million

Projected Domestic Total: $150 million

6. IF

If the first box office tracking for IF is any indication, we've got a sleeper hit on our hands here. The lone potential original blockbuster of the summer, IF is currently on track for a $38-42 million debut with a good chance of actually opening higher. Considering the current drought of family movies in the marketplace, I'd wager this Foster's Home for Imaginary Friends pastiche has a solid shot at exceeding those initial numbers. An opening in the mid-40 millions would set IF up for a nice leggy haul, especially since its second weekend coincides with Memorial Day weekend. I'm no Ryan Reynolds fan personally (he's great in Adventureland though!), but this movie does seem poised to continue his box office hot streak.

Projected Opening Weekend: $44 million

Projected Domestic Total: $155 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One 

Nothing suggests just what a weird summer it's going to be like how, currently, it doesn't look like we'll have more than three movies crack $200 million domestically. A Quiet Place: Day One, though, may come closest. Before the pandemic shut everything down, A Quiet Place Part II was tracking to debut to roughly $72 million. A year later, it ended up grossing $48.3 million, slightly below its predecessor's bow thanks to the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on theatrical exhibition. Let's be clear, that sequel still did outstanding business under those circumstances. If this prequel spin-off can openly anywhere near $60 million (and I think it can), it'll likely ride the 4th of July holiday week and summer weekdays to a final haul close to the original A Quiet Place. Maybe Day One, in other words, can get that major box office boost Part II simply couldn't because of external factors.

Projected Opening Weekend: $61 million

Projected Domestic Total: $175 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Those damn dirty apes have been pretty consistent in terms of domestic opening weekends in the 21st century. Across all four of the Apes movies launched since 2000, they've all landed in the $54-72 million range in their North American launches. Early box office tracking has Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes debuting to $56 million, which sounds about right. Losing Andy Serkis and Caesar puts this one at a bit of a disadvantage. However, the trailers and posters have promised moviegoers plenty of new elements compared to the last three entires thanks to a 300-year long time jump. That and the emphasis on IMAX showings should help make this one a big-screen event for general moviegoers. Best of all, Planet of the Apes movies aren't like Marvel Cinematic Universe or Twilight films where everyone goes out and sees them exclusively on opening days. If word-of-mouth on Kingdom is good, it should play for a nice while in the summer marketplace. Expect those Apes to keep on chugging in movie theaters, hopefully next time with a big musical number in tow.

Projected Opening Weekend: $63 million

Projected Domestic Total: $178 million

3. Inside Out 2

Inside Out 2 feels assured to secure the spot as the third-biggest movie of summer 2024 domestically. The question now, though, is how much it actually makes. I'm just not feeling like there's the extreme hype here that greeted the pre-release marketing cycles of Toy Story 3 and Incredibles 2. Maybe people are just a tad burnt out on Disney sequels? There's enough residual love for the first movie to get this one to a decent opening weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it openly slightly lower than the original Inside Out before having weaker legs. That would still result in a hefty box office haul heads and shoulders above all other animated Disney films released after 2020. Maybe that'll be enough for the Mouse House this go around?

Projected Opening Weekend: $84 million

Projected Domestic Total: $240 million

2. Despicable Me 4

I'm pretty sure every box office geek has the same two movies predicted for the top two slots of summer 2024. That supposed assuredness makes me wonder if something is gonna come up out of nowhere and suddenly push these two out of the top spots...nobody thought Top Gun: Maverick and Barbie would dominate the last two summers, after all. Still, for now, I'll go the safe route and say Despicable Me 4 will have no trouble becoming the second-biggest movie of the summer domestically. Despicable Me 3 making less than Minions domestically does make me wonder if the main entries in this series are now slightly less popular than installments focusing just on the sentient cornpops. Plus, Minions: The Rise of Gru struck it big two summers back after so much pent-up anticipation for its release. That phenomenon doesn't exist here for Despicable Me 4. Otherwise, though, this one's a box office slam-dunk. Gru will continue his box office hot streak, without question.

Projected Opening Weekend: $70 million ($120 million five day)

Projected Domestic Total: $320 million

1. Deadpool and Wolverine

Unless something goes seriously wrong with Deadpool and Wolverine (and things could go haywire...did anyone predict The Marvels making under $90 million before it opened?), The Passion of the Christ will no longer be the biggest R-rated movie in history domestically come Labor Day weekend. That 20-year-long record is likely getting shattered here, especially since the first Deadpool in 2016 was only $20 million away from dethroning it. Eight years of ticket price inflation, a greater emphasis on costly IMAX tickets, emphasizing Hugh Jackman's Wolverine in the marketing, Deadpool & Wolverine should reach that. An R-rating and the simple fact that a bunch of 20th Century Fox Marvel characters meeting up isn't as enticing as the return of Alfred Molina's Doc Ock will keep this one from hitting Spider-Man: No Way Home numbers. However, it should at least get to Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness numbers domestically and could do a pinch better if the sparser summer 2024 slate leaves audiences hungry for big spectacle by the end of July.

Projected Opening Weekend: $175 million

Projected Domestic Total: $420 million (this is not a pun)