Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat's score for The Shape of Water will have no problem scoring a nomination as it seems to be the frontrunner to win at this point. Hans Zimmer's work on Dunkirk should also be a cinch for a nomination but after that, things get a little murkier. Jonny Greenwood's unsettling score for Phantom Thread has received acclaim but the movie may be running just under the Academy's radar and get snubbed. Could Lady Bird's rising profile lift Jon Brion's score to his first Oscar nomination, ditto for Carter Burwell's score for Three Billboards? And then there's John Williams, a guy the Academy loves (he's been nominated for four of the seven Academy Award ceremonies that have occurred this decade) and is assured a nomination here. Question is, which of his two scores get in? Will it be The Post or Star Wars: The Last Jedi? Or will the Academy do what they did back in 2011 with War Horse and Tintin and give John Williams two Oscar nominations? I say he only gets one this year but don't be surprised if he manages to score a pair of nods once again for his work in 2017.
Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
Jon Brion (Lady Bird)
John Williams (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)
Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
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| The Greatest Showman |
Doesn't feel like there are as many songs looking to score a Best Original Song nod this year as there in 2016 but we've still got a couple of tunes squaring off for nominations here. Remember Me from Coco and This Is Me from The Greatest Showman are guaranteed to show up here while Marshall is likely to score it's sole Oscar nod for the song Stand For Something. As for the other two nominations, I'm thinking Mighty River from Mudbound and Evermore, the big original song from last year's smash hit Beauty And The Beast movie, round out the category. Fair warning: the Academy loves to toss in a fully unexpected nomination into this category (remember the Alone, Yet Not Along snafu from a few years back?) so expect some song you and I have never heard of before to get a Best Original Song nomination come Tuesday morning.
This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)
Mighty River (Mudbound)
Evermore (Beauty And The Beast)
Stand For Something (Marshall)
Remember Me (Coco)
Best Foreign Language Film
We've got a shortlist of nine films (sadly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) is not one of those features) to choose from for the five prospective nominees for Best Foreign Language Films. A Fantastic Woman, Loveless and Foxtrot feel assured to get nominated while Palme d'Or winner The Square also should be a contender here. For the final nomination, In The Fade should secure that spot thanks to just how buzzy Diane Kruger's performance in that movie has been,
A Fantastic Woman
Loveless
Foxtrot
In The Fade
The Square
Best Animated Feature
I am incredibly curious to see just what gets nominated in this category this year due to how the voting process for Best Animated Feature was recently heavily altered. Previously, nominees for this category were only determined by the animation branch of the Academy, a group of people heavily invested in animated cinema which explains why obscure foreign animated fare dominated the nominations in this category in year's past. However, now anyone can vote for nominees here and it's very likely the majority of Academy members will not be as exposed to smaller-scale foreign animated fare as the members of the animation branch are. Now, Coco, for instance, was going to get a nomination regardless of the voting process due to it's high amount of acclaim, but from then on, all bets are off in terms of which of the 26 films shortlisted for being eligible for a nomination in this category will get in.
Will general Academy voters just write-in Despicable Me 3 as a nominee simply because they've heard of it? The general members of the Academy have proven to be that dismissive of animated cinema in the past. I'll say two foreign animated features, The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent, manage to get in, but two general American animated family movies, The LEGO Batman Movie and The Boss Baby, manage to score nods thanks to this new voting system. Like I said, I'm very curious to see what happens here and how this new voting process impacts what kind of nominees we see here.
Coco
Loving Vincent
The LEGO Batman Movie
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Best Adapted Screenplay
Not too many high-profile Adapted Screenplays jostling for nominations here this year, a contrast to past years that had far more Adapted Screenplays than Original Screenplays in contention. Call Me By Your Name is, of course, getting a nomination, while Aaron Sorkin, who's been nominated multiple times in this category before, should score another nomination for his work on Molly's Game. Mudbound is liable to get a major nomination here, as should The Disaster Artist while I'll make a bold guess in regards to the final nomination and say Rian Johnson scores a nod for his work on Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams (Mudbound)
Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist)
James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
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| Get Out |
Here we come to a more competitive category, albeit one with four guaranteed nominations given that they're all the four frontrunners for Best Picture at this juncture. Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are all assured nominations here, leaving one slot open for the taking and it's really anyone's guess who gets in here. Maybe Sean Baker's screenplay for The Florida Project makes a surprise entry or perhaps Christopher Nolan's sprawling writing for Dunkirk gets recognized? PIXAR's been recognized multiple times in this category in the past, so don't discount Coco being a dark horse contender. I'll say Liz Hannah and Josh Singer get recognized for The Post as the final nominee, but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see one of a number of movies take it's place instead.
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water)
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer (The Post)
Best Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalfe and Allison Janney will have no trouble scoring nominations in Best Supporting Actress this year, but the other three slots are far more nebulous. The Big Sick seems to have fallen off the radar this award season so I'm suspecting Holly Hunter's acclaimed performance in that movie will fail to get a nomination and be one of the more talked-about snubs. Hong Chau has generated buzz for her performance in Downsizing but the film itself has generated enough of a divisive reputation for it to likely cost her a nomination. I'm gonna go with Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water, Mary J. Blige in Mudbound and Tiffany Haddish will follow in the footsteps of Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids as the newest scene-stealer in a popular comedy to score an Oscar nomination.
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip)
Laurie Metcalfe (Lady Bird)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Best Supporting Actor
It appears now that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will accomplish the rare feat of being a movie able to score two nominations in one acting category for the performances by Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson. Many thought Call Me By Your Name would be able to accomplish that feat this year but it looks like Armie Hammer will be the one supporting performance from that feature to score Oscar recognition. Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water has crept up in various other award shows in recent weeks to assure himself a place here while the final nomination is going to Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project. Are there any contenders who could break through the pack here to score a nomination? Christopher Plummer in All The Money In The World feels like the only one who could do that, though if the Academy really takes to I, Tonya, Sebastian Stan may find himself being a surprise nominee here.
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Best Actress
It appears the five nominees for this category have been pretty much solidified. Saroise Ronan, Sally Hawkins, Margot Robbie, Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep, there are your nominees. Maybe Jessica Chastain pulls an upset and gets a nomination for Molly's Game ahead of Hawkins or Robbie, but that's highly unlikely. This, at this juncture, does appear to be the most predictable category in terms of nominees but the Academy does love dropping wholly unexpected surprises when announcing nominees...
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Saroise Ronan (Lady Bird)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Timothee Chamalet and Daniel Day-Lewis are the trio of actors assured nominations here while the other two slots seem to be more up for grabs. James Franco in The Disaster Artist seemed to be a sure thing but recent accusations of sexual harassment, coming out in the final days of voting, have likely dented that. Daniel Kaluuya actually feels like a likely nod here, especially since he's probably being looked at by voters as the one way they can recognize the acting of Get Out since none of the other actors in it have generated much Oscar nomination buzz. Tom Hanks has been left out in the cold each Oscar ceremony since Cast Away in 2000, it's doubtful The Post breaks that streak while Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger and Robert Pattinson in Good Time have received acclaim but their movies didn't leave enough of an impression to get themselves nominations. Let's say Franco and Kaluuya round out the category for this year.
Timothee Chamalet (Call Me By Your Name)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Best Director
The Academy has a massive and disgraceful problem with recognizing female directors, which makes the prospect of Greta Gerwig getting in for Lady Bird less of a sure thing than it should be. I'll say she makes it (rightfully so too) while Jordan Peele will overcome stigmas against genre movies that the Academy has to also score a Best Director nod. Martin McDonagh, Guillermo Del Toro and Christopher Nolan (that third individual scoring his first ever Best Director nod, surprisingly enough) should round out the category.
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
So there's basically eight movies everyone expects to see in this category come Tuesday morning. Lady Bird, Get Out, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Dunkirk, The Florida Project and Call Me By Your Name. Will those all be our only Best Picture nominees or will one more movie sneak in? Under the six years the current voting rules for Best Picture have existed, four of those years have resulted in nine nominees while two have resulted in only eight nominees. I'm going to say we get nine Best Picture nominees this year but what will be the ninth film nominated? Mudbound would seem like a likely choice but it's stature as a Netflix movie will almost certainly keep it out of consideration for Best Picture. Phantom Thread is probably too weird for general Academy voters, The Greatest Showman (belonging to the musical genre the Academy loves) got too late of a start in screening for voters to be a major contender and like I said earlier, The Big Sick hasn't been around enough in prior award shows to factor as a major Best Picture nominee contender. I'd actually say it's probably gonna come down to I, Tonya and Darkest Hour for that final nomination and since I, Tonya is likely to score more acting nods than Darkest Hour, I''ll give the edge to the Tonya Harding biopic to be the ninth Best Picture nominee at this year's Academy Award ceremony.
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Florida Project
Call Me By Your Name
Okee-dokee folks, the nominations will be announced bright and early on Tuesday morning, let's see how wrong I end up being!
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