Summer 2023 Box Office Predictions

Me watching all the trailers for this summer's movies

Well, here we are again.

One year later and I'm back writing a summer box office predictions piece on Land of the Nerds. A lot has happened in just the one year since I last wrote this piece but, thankfully, none of those big events have disrupted the annual event of a deluge of new movies dropping in the hottest months of the year and competing for box office glory. In fact, the summer 2023 slate is incredibly stacked, a reuslt of certain movies (namely The Flash, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, and the new Mission: Impossible) all getting delayed from 2022 thanks to COVID-19-related problems. 2022 had portions of the calander where the theatrical landscape was just totally dead..that won't be a problem in 2023. Even August, where last year Bullet Train was the only new non-Dragon Ball movie to crack $15+ million on opening weekend, is packed in 2023 with major titles like The Meg 2: The Trench, Blue Beetle, and an animated Ninja Turtles film.

While there's no question on this summer's slate being packed to the gills, there is an interesting level of uncertainty surrounding some of the season's potential biggest players. Can The Flash overcome all its pre-release controversy to score a win for audiences? Will Elemental restore some luster to the box office track record of Pixar? Are people craving another Indiana Jones movie? Lots of ingredients are up in the air for the costliest tentpoles of 2023, a brand of filmmaking often, ironically, looked at by studios as foolproof. These questions are undoubtedly causing headaches for studio executives across Hollywood, but those quandaries are just the kind of thing that makes predicting the summer box office all the more exciting. Let's get right down to predicting the opening weekend and final domestic hauls of the ten biggest movies of summer 2023, starting with the movie in tenth place...

(Note: all opening weekend projections are for what a movie will make over its first three-day weekend)

10. CHAPPiE

10. Oppenheimer 

Oppenheimer has a tough hill to walk up this summer. Even with Christopher Nolan's name on the posters, this is still an adult drama with a $100 million budget. The relentlessly intense big-scale sequences of his last historical drama, Dunkirk, are absent here. Those Dunkirk set pieces made that war film feel like it belonged right in the middle of the crop of summertime action films, whereas Oppenheimer is a more restrained affair. Also, Cillian Murphy has only headlined one movie (A Quiet Place: Part II) that cracked $100 million domestically (he did show up in supporting roles in hits like Batman Begins and Inception). It'll also need to contend with a new Mission: Impossible movie for the attention of tentpole-fixated moviegoers.  

It's not all doom and gloom here, though. For one thing, Universal's been pushing Oppenheimer like it's a massive action blockbuster, a wise move that already gives the feature an event movie feeling. Murphy is also surrounded by a barrage of a massive names (Emily Blunt! Robert Downey Jr.! Matt Damon!) that ensure all the presure isn't just on him to attract moviegoers. Plus, if it's even half-decent and doesn't utterly collapse on opening weekend, it'll totally stick around at the box office well into Labor Day weekend. Expect this one to have a slower start, but stick around long-term at the box office for a decent domestic finish. Nolan's defied the odds before, though, so nobody be shocked if he turns out to have tapped into a public fascination with J. Robert Oppenheimer that nobody else realized existed.

Projected Opening Weekend: $36 million

Projected Domestic Total: $140 million

9. Elemental

Since Pixar Animation Studios started releasing movies in the summer of 2006 with Cars, this studio has only had one summertime movie (Ratatouille) open below $50 million. Even that one exception wasn't far off the mark with a $47 million debut. Even last years box office dud Lightyear initially opened with a $53 million bow that at least looked consistent with previous Pixar summertime titles like Cars 3 (the fact that it collapsed after that weekend is what sealed Lightyear's financial doom). All eyes are now on Elemental to see if it can continue that streak and, more importantly, reverse the downward trajectory of animated Disney films at the box office. Lightyear and Strange World were two of the biggest box office bombs of 2022 while acclaimed Pixar titles like Soul and Turning Red got unceremoniously dumped on Disney+. Once the titans of animation, Disney's animation studios need some box office rejuvination stat.

It's difficult to imagine right now that Elemental will be the mega-blockbuster that immediately silences all concerns over the box office prospects of animated Disney fare. The premise doesn't seem like it's as immediately compelling to youngsters and their families as, say, Inside Out or Coco. and the marketing so far has been muted. Elemental is also opening the same day as The Flash and just two weeks after Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, both of which will undoubtedly cut into its box office potential. Still, it's a Pixar movie in the summertime. Don't underestimate that subgenre. Plus, it won't have to compete with a new Illumination movie over 4th of July weekend (unlike many past Pixar movies), which could give it more room to stick around. Elemental will almost certainly end up one of the lower-grossing Pixar movies, but it'll also likely inch the studio closer to something resembling box office normalcy after the financial failure of Lightyear.

Projected Opening Weekend: $47 million

Projected Domestic Total: $160 million

8. Fast X

Just as the budgets for individual Fast & Furious movies goes higher and higher, these titles are also starting to stall out a tad at the box office. Granted, "stalling out" for a Fast & Furious movie is a relative concept, most other franchises would love to be churning out installments that "only" crack $700 million worldwide. Still, the ever-ballooning costs of these movies is becoming a problem as the domestic grosses fall shorter and shorter of not just the abnormally massive Furious 7 in 2015, but other installments like Fast Five in 2011.

Fast X won't be able to bring the franchise anywhere close to its glory days at the North American box office, though it may, if things really go its way, have a chance at making a bit more than its predecessor domestically at least. Exempting Tenet, F9 was the first massive tentpole to get a theatrical-exclusive release in North America since the pandemic began, which undoubtedly softened its grosses a tad. Fast X, opening in a marketplace less impacted by COVID, could build on that, but its marketing will need to get better first. So far, promotional materials have been a bit derivative and the promise of this one being the start of "the end of the road" feels more than a tad hollow given how many of these movies have hinged their marketing on "one last ride." It's a new Fast & Furious movie dropping just before Memorial Day weekend, Fast X will make some money. But it almost certainly won't make enough to be profitable on that $340 million+ budget.

Projected Opening Weekend: $70 million

Projected Domestic Total: $170 million

7. Barbie

Everybody's talking about Barbie. Every new promotional image, trailer, or on-set photo of this movie gets the internet talking like there's no tomorrow. It's also the first live-action adaptation of one of the most popular toys ever created, which really enhances the box office potential of this Greta Gerwig directorial effort. However, save for those Transformers movies, there aren't a lot of precedents for movie adaptations of toys. Whereas new superhero or video game movies have tons of previous entries to look to in terms of predicting box office trajectories, Barbie is entering less-trodden territory occupied by movies like the G.I. Joe films and Battleship.

All of this to say, it's hard to determined right now how high or how low Barbie is. One wouldn't want to go super high and then have the film seem like it "flopped" when it still does solid box office numbers. Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling being famous movie stars who also haven't headlined a bunch of movies that exceeded $100+ million domestically exacerbate the unpredictability here. Still, Barbie is generating lots of buzz, everybody knows what a Barbie is, and Warner Bros. is pushing this hard as a mid-July blockbuster. This should do very well...but don't be surprised if Barbie goes even higher based on all the buzz it's currently generating.

Projected Opening Weekend: $60 million

Projected Domestic Total: $180 million

6. The Little Mermaid

Believe it or not, The Little Mermaid will be the first one of these live-action Disney remake movies to get a theatrical exclusive release since Maleficent: Mistress of Evil in October 2019. In the interm period, the likes of Mulan, Pinocchio, and Peter Pan & Wendy all went straight to Disney+ while Cruella simultaneously premieried as a PVOD release on the service. Now the Mouse House has to get audiences onboard with the idea of seeing one of these projects in theaters again, even as the general reputation of these remakes has gone down considerably in recent years. 

The ace up Disney's sleeve is that The Little Mermaid is one of the four movies that kicked off the Disney rennaisance of the 1990s. The remakes of the other three titles (Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King) all grossed $360+ million domestically and two of them even exceeded $500 million in North America. That's a very encouraging financial track record to follow up, though The Little Mermaid will undoubtedly make less than those other titles. These remakes just aren't as special to the general public like they were even as late as 2017. Plus, competing June 2023 family titles like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will undoubtedly hinder Mermaid's chances of sticking around at the box office as long as 2019's Aladdin update. Even with it being undoubtedly frontloaded, though, The Little Mermaid is bound to make a pretty penny for Disney brass.

Projected Opening Weekend: $84 million

Projected Domestic Total: $235 million

5. The Flash

For the last few months, entertainment outlets have been constantly dropping pieces about how everyone from Tom Cruise to random test screening audiences have adored The Flash. Frankly, these strange articles can't help but come off as some weird Warner Bros.-mandated PR clean-up in an attempt to bolster the image of a costly movie capsized by its lead star's endless string of controversies. Needless to say, it's been a bizarre road to get to The Flash, with that strangeness compounded by the movie's marketing campaign leaning heavily on Michael Keaton's Batman rather than the feature's titular superhero.

That promotional approach seems to have at least made The Flash a bit more in the mold of a typical legacy sequel, which should make it appealing to the broader public. Timing it to Father's Day is also a good call, since a movie owing so much to Batman/Batman Returns will appeal to dads everywhere. It does remain to be seen, though, if general audiences will be up for this movie and its time-travel shenanigans, especially as other complex multiversal superhero films like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania have turned into box office duds. The DC brand has also been struggling lately, with four of the last six DC titles failing to crack $100 million partially thanks to subpar movies and also external factors like the decision to release titles like The Suicide Squad simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. Still, last year's The Batman showed that DC blockbusters can still round up massive grosses. 

If The Flash can generate positive word-of-mouth, it'll likely stick around a good long while this summer thanks to those summer weekdays (every day is a Saturday) and the 4th of July holiday that arrives just after its third weekend of release. Expect a slightly diluted opening weekend (maybe something on par with other time travel superhero extravaganza X-Men: Days of Future Past), but longer legs on this one. Also expect Warner Bros. to keep bizarrely ignoring all the accusations against Ezra Miller, which is just extra baffling.

Projected Opening Weekend: $95 million

Projected Domestic Total: $275 million

4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is going to make money. The question, though, is how much. In 2008, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull brought the character back for a new adventure 19 years in the making. All the pent-up excitement of seeing a new Indy installment led to it crack $318 million domestically. In the years that followed, Crystal Skull garnered a mixed reputation among the general public and the yearning for more Indiana Jones movies simmered down. Still, 15 years away from movie theaters, there is a novelty to the franchise returning and the repeated emphasis in the marketing that this will be the final adventure for Harrison Ford's Indiana Jones does lend it an extra air of urgency for moviegoers.

If there's any problem for this new Indy film, it's that opening in between The Flash and the new Mission: Impossible could undercut some of its box office prowess. That's a lot of competition to face and if those movies end up exceeding expectations at the box office, even an enduring icon like Indiana Jones is going to feel the burn. Hitting the box office highs of Crystal Skull again feels an unlikely outcome for Dial of Destiny, but it shouldn't have any trouble still registering as one of the season's most notable success stories.

Projected Opening Weekend: $106 million

Projected Domestic Total: $280 million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

If there's any glaringly obvious sign that the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unchallenged box office dominance is at least slimming down a bit, look no further than the impending box office receipts for Guardian of the Galaxy Vol. 3. This kick-off to the summer of 2023 will still make gobs of money (Lord knows Black Adam would've killed to have a domestic total anywhere near what Guardians 3 will bring in) but it'll undoubtedly have a much lower than usual North American gross than typical early May Marvel movies. In fact, this feature is all but certain to be the first (exempting the Sony title The Amazing Spider-Man 2) first weekend of May comic book movie to miss the $300 million mark in its domestic run since Thor in May 2011.

That wouldn't be a shock given that audience sentiment towards the Marvel Studios brand has dwindled in the last year while the lengthy wait between the second and third Guardians adventures undoubtedly impacted audience enthusiasm for this franchise. Even with all this downbeat news, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 should still be a solid performer and, for a multitude of reasons, has a good shot at scoring the best domestic opening weekend of the summer. There's still lots of goodwill towards these scrappy cosmic misfits and that'll likely be enough to keep Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 a lucrative enterprise, even if it'll fall below past Marvel Cinematic Universe enterprises at the box office.

Projected Opening Weekend: $122 million

Projected Domestic Total: $290 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

In terms of pre-release hype, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is generating hype comparable to an average live-action superhero blockbuster rather than a typical animated family movie. That's no shock given that its predeccesor was so beloved by audiences across the globe and the marketing for this newest installment has been pulling out all the stops to emphasize a barrage of new Spider-Man characters (like Spider-Man 2099). The result is a movie that looks to handily outgross its predeccesor at the box office, especially over opening weekend. Into the Spider-Verse debuted to $35 million in December 2018, a month where films can open lower and then have incredible week-to-week drops. By contrast, Across the Spider-Verse is premiering in June, a month where things tend to open a lot bigger right away.

Considering this and the fact that Across the Spider-Verse is scheduled to be the first PG animated movie of summer 2023, it looks like this feature's poised for an outstanding box office. So how high does it go? Right now, it could make a run at a $100+ million domestic bow, which would make it one of only a handful of non-Disney animated titles to exceed that mark in its opening weekend in that territory. Given that this one's a sequel and opening in the more competitive summertime frame, there's no way Across the Spider-Verse is as leggy on a week-to-week basis as its predecessor. However, it still should have no trouble spinning a lucrative web at the box office.

Projected Opening Weekend: $106 million

Projected Domestic Total: $305 million

1. Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning (Part One) 

Believe it or not, none of the Mission: Impossible movies have ever cracked $220 million domestically. Despite being such a long-running saga that’s extremely well-known to most people, there hasn’t been a single installment in this franchise that’s exceeded the North American gross of Rush Hour 2. That should change with Dead Reckoning (Part One) this summer for a multitude of reasons. For one, it’s part one of the franchise’s final chapter, which should lend some more immediacy to this installment to prospective moviegoers. For another, it’s the first Tom Cruise star vehicle after Top Gun: Maverick took over the box office last year. Before 2022, Cruise had never headlined a movie that cracked $240 million domestically. Maverick "slightly" exceeded that mark with a $710+ million North American haul. Dead Reckoning can’t and won’t hit Maverick numbers, but it’ll still prove to be a massive entry. 

However, it’s also a bit of a wild card since it’s hard to tell how high it can go. The elements working in its favor are extraordinary, but its difficult to ascertain just how much they can push this one past the previous domestic box office ceiling of this franchise. You’ve gotta take some risks in this life and especially when you’re predicting the victors of an impending summer box office season. Looking at everything Dead Reckoning has at its back, I suspect this title will see a massive 50% jump at least from the domestic haul of Mission: Impossible: Fallout. That percentage could easily climb, though, if hype for it continues to increase steadily over the next two months. In other words, we could be looking at the second consecutive summer in a row where Tom Cruise reigns above everyone else. 

Projected Opening Weekend: $85 million (around $150 million over its first five days of release) Projected Domestic Total: $340 million