Tomorrow, Tomorrowland Should Rule The Box Office

Disney's rollicking 2015 continues this weekend with the release of Tomorrowland, the newest film from Brad Bird, a director whose last three movies (two of which were from Disney) made over $200 million at the domestic box office. It's highly unlikely that trend continues with this new movie, but I also doubt this becomes a mega-dud for all those involved, primarily because of the lack of family movies out right now.

More mixed reviews will likely keep away some ambivalent moviegoers, but the rampant marketings promise of jetpacks and George Clooney should be enough to coerce a solid chunk of families to see this one. The last family movie to open over Memorial Day weekend was Epic, back in 2013, and its $33 million opening haul should be easily beaten, though it'll be way harder for this particular feature to beat out the biggest family movie Memorial Day openings (Night At The Museum 2 is tops with a $54 million debut). Still, this should get into the mid $40 millions in its first three days with no problem.

Poltergeist certainly has more problems to face, though the good news is that it's assured to have one of the bigger opening weekends for a recent horror movie. Chalk that up to how well known the original Poltergeist is, though that brand name recognition is a double edged sword; it does let audiences immediately know what the plot is, but the trailers don't offer any new scares that viewers can't just see in the original film. That'll keep this one from breaking out like The Conjuring (a film its certainly trying to emulate in many of its TV spots), but it should barely cross $20 million in its first frame.

The good news for Pitch Perfect 2 just keeps on rolling in, as its enormous $69 million opening weekend will likely be followed up by a superb second frame. Thanks to Thursday night grosses making up a smaller portion of its opening weekend than, say, Mad Max: Fury Road or Avengers: Age of Ultron, the Bellas should have no problem hanging on well compared to last weekend, likely with a 3-day hold in the mid-40% range. Mad Max: Fury Road will have a larger dip, though strong weekday numbers suggest word-of-mouth is strong for the critically beloved film. Solid numbers this weekend should help this one get past $80 million by Sunday, making it yet another successful title in a marketplace chock full of thriving motion pictures.

Below, you can see my opening weekend and final gross predictions for this weekends new releases, as well as my projections for this weekends 3-day box office Top 5.

Tomorrowland
Opening Weekend: $45 million
Total Gross: $150 million

Poltergeist
Opening Weekend: $20 million
Total Gross: $48 million

1) Tomorrowland: $45 million
2) Pitch Perfect 2: $38 million
3) Avengers: Age of Ultron: $23 million
4) Mad Max: Fury Road: $21 million
5) Poltergeist: $20 million