Holiday Box Office Predictions

With Paramount Pictures announcing today that The Gambler will go into wide release on Christmas Day, that means the amount of movies opening in wide release between now and Christmas Day is nine. A week before the first of that large amount of movies opens, I think it's time to take a look at how these movies will far at the box office, don't you?

First up is the weekend of December 12, which brings two very different releases. Exodus: God And Kings is the bigger release of the duo, as you might expect for a Ridley Scott directed movie starring Christian Bale as Moses. Even with that pedigree though, the movies mixed reviews may dull interest in the movie, especially since recent advertising hasn't been really that effective, focusing more on Christian Bale shouting than making the movie compelling. This should win the weekend with ease, but it won't break records.

Top Five is the other new release, and this Chris Rock directed movie might be able to translate great reviews to decent box office success. Paramount is releasing this one into an estimated 975 theaters, a smaller release that indicates this one likely won't do gargantuan business. Thankfully, it doesn't have to; Paramount paid for distribution rights to the movie for $12.5 million and it should have no trouble more than doubling that sum over the Christmas holidays.

Next up is a weekend bringing three films hoping to achieve holiday money glory. The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies isn't just the biggest movie of the weekend, it'll be the biggest movie of the month by far. Although interest in The Hobbit movies isn't as big as the Lord of The Rings films, being the final chapter and receiving the best reviews of the trilogy should get it to match The Desolation Of Smaug in terms of total gross. Since this one is opening on a Wednesday, predicting it's opening weekend is a bit more difficult at this point.

Two family movies round out the weekend, with Annie looking like the more successful of the two. Being based on a popular musical, it's got tremendous built in brand awareness that should make it appeal to outside of the family demographic with ease. I''m actually thinking this becomes a breakout hit this Christmas, making $150 million and potentially even more. The other family movie of the weekend, Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb, has had an abysmal marketing campaign that doesn't seem to justify why this movie is arriving five and a half years after it's predecessor. It should play like 2010 Christmas family movie Yogi Bear and open below $20 million, but hold on well enough to avoid being a colossal failure.

And then comes Christmas Day, which brings four new releases. It's hard to tell which of them is the biggest, though I'll go wit The Interview. Tons of controversy has given this one the kind of free publicity marketers dream of, while Seth Rogen is in the middle of a streak of well received comedy hits like This Is The End and Neighbors. Add in being the only comedy released over this time of the year and it should have no trouble becoming a sizable hit, likely not as big as Neighbors but I'm thinking $125 million.

Into The Woods will attempt to replicate the success of 2012 Christmas musical Les Miserables, and it might just be successful in that mission. Woods isn't quite as famous as Les Miserables, but it's still very well known, and a PG rating means it can appeal to families, something that that aforementioned Hugh Jackman movie couldn't. This should be a nice choice for audiences of all ages, though Annie may take some of the winds out of its sails. Look for this to become the fifth $100 million for Disney in 2014.

Reviews are coming in more mixed than Universal would probably want, but Unbroken will likely still find decent success at the box office. It's story of perseverance though wretched hardship makes it an eye catching option for many moviegoers, and Angelina Jolie certainly put the feature on everyone's radar. It could be close, but I'll say this ekes past $100 million. Finally, The Gambler is sort of a last minute addition to the schedule, so don't be surprised to see it get a more conservative theater count and total box office gross, but Wahlberg has been doing really well lately, so don't count this one out just yet.

And now, my listing of these movies from biggest total gross to lowest:

1. The Hobbit :The Battle Of Five Armies: $255 million
2: Annie: $150 million
3. The Interview: $130 million
4. Into The Woods: $115 million
5. Exodus: Gods And Kings: $105 million
6. Unbroken: $100 million
7. Night At The Museum: Secret Of The Tomb: $85 million
8. The Gambler: $50 million
9. Top Five: $40 million