Two of this weeks new release (Step Up All In and The Hundred-Foot Journey) should open in the low teens and won't be that impacted by Rocket and Groot, but I do wonder how two other would-be blockbusters will fare this week. Into The Storm just looks like Twister but with worse effects (it's been 17 years since that Bill Paxton movie, how in the name of God am I saying that?), but I bet it was cheap to make, so Warner Bros. probably won't be damaged too much by it.
The movie that should really be sweating right now is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. The project has been met with skepticism by many, and even though I've tried to be more optimistic (that trailer back in June was pretty cool...), new promotional materials just look awful. Not helping matters is the fact that early reviews are bad, though at least ones like Slashfilms review are entertaining to read. Brand value may get this one past $30 million, but I'd be amazed if this got much higher than that.
The next week brings The Expendables 3, which probably won't be hurt much by Guardians, simply because it's fanbase after two movies is established enough to be guaranteed to come out despite the presence of Drax The Destroyer. On the other hand, I still can't get a read on The Giver despite it coming out a-week-and-a-half from now. It's got some big names like Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep in there, and the book is well known, but the ads make it look like a Hunger Games rip-off. The final new release is Let's Be Cops, which I personally don't think looks that great, but ads do seem to be selling some memorable antics set around a unique premise. We haven't had a big R-rated comedy in a while, so this actually has the potential to make a nice amount of change if marketing continues to be effective.
Sin City: A Dame To Kill For is easily the biggest release of the fourth weekend of August but I doubt it'll be that popular with mainstream audiences. The first Sin City doesn't have a great reception with casual moviegoers, and a nine-year gap between the movies only hurts things further. But it's unique visuals make it stand out and it should at least get to $20 million in it's opening weekend. I actually had never heard of the book If I Stay is based on prior to the movies first trailer, but it should make a nice event for female audience members who haven't had a ton of movies this summer. Where The Game Stands Tall meanwhile looks generic in its marketing, and doesn't have a big A-list name to boost its profile like other sports dramas, which means this should have an underwhelming debut.
Only two movies start their runs over Labor Day weekend (I'd expect several summer movies like How To Train Your Dragon 2 and X-Men: Days of Future Past do a little re-expansion this weekend to take advantage of an empty landscape to grab some more cash). Easily the biggest of the movies if found-footage horror movie As Above, So Below. Only two horror movies have been released this summer, one a hit (The Purge: Anarchy) the other a flop (Deliver Us From Evil), so it's hard to tell from past examples how this one will do. But horror does traditionally do well over Labor Day weekend, so I'd expect decent results. The other movie, The November Man, stars Pierce Brosnan feels like a movie I can pick up at a gas station in five months for five bucks. In other words, that one should flop pretty hard.
There should be some moneymakers in the rest of August, but it's pretty obvious none will match Guardians in financial success.
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