With The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water waaaaaay overperforming with an estimated $56 million opening weekend, it looks like that undersea fella will hit $200 million in it's final gross, becoming the first movie of 2015 to accomplish that task. That got me thinking about what other films could hit that mark at the domestic box office, and I've compiled part one of a list of 15 movies that are likely to hit that mark, as well as a notice on the individual likelihood of each movies chances at hitting that prestigious $200 million mark.
The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out Of Water
The one that inspired this list should follow the cue of past early February family movies and hang on well past it's opening weekend even with some muted word-of-mouth. If it holds like The LEGO Movie from last year and does 3.75 times its estimated opening weekend, it'd make a fantastic $210 million overall.
Likelihood: 85%
Cinderella
Disney's live-action versions of well-known fairy tales have done really well at the box office, with Maleficent particularly surprising everyone with a $69 million opening weekend and a massive $241 million final gross. Cinderella doesn't have the summer weekdays or the Angelina Jolie starpower that that film had, but Cinderella is one of the most famous stories ever told, with trailers hitting all the beloved narrative beats. This might just miss $200 million, but I wouldn't be shocked if it managed to break out.
Likelihood: 55%
Furious 7
Here's one that's all but assured to gross big bucks when it opens up at your local movie theater. The Fast & Furious movies have been just acing it at the box office, with the last three movies managing to outgross it's predecessor by a considerable margin. The last two entries managed to cross $200 million, and with a super awesome marketing campaign already in full swing, Dom and his family will zoom past $200 million come this April.
Likelihood: 100%
The first Avengers crossed $200 million in just three days, so it's likely this one has a similarly speedy route to that particular box office milestone. The positive momentum from the first movie has been kept more than intact thanks to Iron Man and Captain America solo adventures that have been huge financial and critical successes, so expect audiences to assemble to massive numbers once this one opens up.
Likelihood: 100%
Tomorrowland
This one's a little riskier, since it's the first one on this list that isn't a sequel or remake. but ads have been really compelling so far (that Super Bowl had the perfect mixture of spectacle and wonder) and Disney launched the previously mentioned Maleficent in a late May release date last year. Like that origin tale, this one also has a huge movie star as the lead (George Clooney this time around), as well as a Memorial Day release date. It's far from guaranteed, but don't be surprised if this one becomes a sleeper hit.
Likelihood: 60%
Jurassic World
The park is open, as marketing materials proclaim, and audiences are likely to flock to return to the world of scary dinos once more. The last Jurassic Park adventure was 14 years ago, so the brand hasn't been diluted by too many poor sequels (well, The Last World was lackluster, but I digress), and the promise of a fully expanded park and new characters played by the likes of Chris Pratt should be more than enough to make this a hit. Hitting the $300+ million heights of the first movie sounds out of this movies reach, but it should be able to manage to match The Lost World's $227 million gross.
Likelihood: 90%
Since 1998, all but one of PIXAR's movies have hit $200 million (Cars 2 being the lone exception). Inside Out should continue this trend, thanks to it being the first animated movie of Summer 2015 and an intriguing premise involving the personification of universal emotions like anger, joy and sadness. It's hard to say if it's box office will be in the lower range of Ratatouille ($206 million) or the financial heights of Up ($291 million) but this does look like another surefire success for PIXAR.
Likelihood: 80%
Come back on likely Tuesday when I look at eight other movies that could hit $200 million in 2015!
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