Sunday, January 14, 2018

As Jumanji Leads The Box Office Again, The Post Has Solid Debut While A Trio of Newcomers, Including Paddington 2, Underwhelm

It's absolutely insane how well Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle is doing at the domestic box office. Did anyone have even the faintest idea of how much cash this one was gonna end up making? For its fourth weekend of release, Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle grossed another $27 million, a tiny 27% dip from last weekend that brings this one's domestic gross to $283.1 million. Could this one manage to crack $350 million domestically? It doesn't look impossible at this point but I'll say it ends it's domestic run at $335 million right now, good enough to become the fifth biggest movie of 2017 domestically.



Steven Spielberg's newest movie, The Post, expanded into wide release this weekend, and grossed $18.6 million. 20th Century Fox likely wanted slightly more from this one's wide release bow than opening just 22% above Spielberg's last drama, Bridge of Spies (that one didn't have Meryl Streep in it too), but that's a minor complaint considering this title still held quite well over the weekend and has both an A CinemaScore and inevitable high-profile Oscar nominations to keep it going in the weeks ahead. With $23 million domestically right now, don't be surprised if The Post ends up eking past the $100 million domestic mark, which would make it only the sixteenth Steven Spielberg directorial effort to do just that.

Surprisingly, the biggest of this weekend's new releases from 2018 was The Commuter, the film many (including myself) thought be at the back of the pack. This thriller still grossed only $13.4 million though, which is more in line with the opening weekends of Liam Neeson misfires like Run All Night and A Walk Among The Tombstones than his biggest hit thrillers and action films. People like Neeson in action movie mode while The Commuter had Neeson clearly engaged in thriller mode. No guns were going off here, no discoveries of dead bodies in airplanes here, the marketing for The Commuter made it very clear the film wasn't going to be an action extravaganza and that's just not what general audiences seem to prefer Neeson in. More mixed, though far from awful, reviews likely didn't help dubious potential moviegoers. Look for this one to close out its domestic run between $30 and $35 million.

Holding much better than past early January horror movies was Insidious: The Last Key, which went down only 59%, compared to the 76% plummet of The Devil Inside and the 69% drop of The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, to gross another $12.1 million for a $48.3 million domestic total. Looks like this one is headed for a $65-ish million domestic finish, a mighty fine result. The Greatest Showman continued to impress with its box office stamina as it went down a mere 14% to gross another $11.8 million for a $94.5 million domestic total. How high is this one gonna go? I dunno, but it's fascinating to watch this one's box office performance unfold. Holding far worse than past Star Wars movies over the Martin Luther King Jr. week was Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which went down 52% to gross another $11.2 million. With a massive $591.5 million domestic total so far, The Last Jedi also managed to become the biggest movie of 2017 at the worldwide box office this weekend.

Debuting far below expectations was Paddington 2, which grossed only $10.6 million this frame. Debuting 43% below the domestic box office opening weekend of its predecessor, this tiny bear got buried by intense family movie competition and a last-minute marketing campaign from Warner Bros. (who shelled out $30 million for Paddington 2's U.S. distribution rights just two months ago) that failed to sell moviegoers on the film beyond advertising it as being another Paddington adventure. It's doubtful Paddington 2 makes much more than $35 million domestically and now the only question is if Peter Rabbit ends up outgrossing Paddington 2's entire domestic run on opening weekend or not.

Also disappointing in its opening weekend this frame was Proud Mary, which grossed only $10 million, far below the recent opening weekends for other Taraji P. Henson vehicles and making it the rare out-and-out financial misfire for Sony's Screen Gems division. Luckily, this one cost only $14 million so those financial losses will be minimal. Sony/Screen Gems did such barebones marketing for this title that it's no wonder it struggled so much. Look for Proud Mary to end its domestic run just south of $25 million.

Pitch Perfect 3 kept on crooning with another $5.6 million (a 45% drop from last weekend) for a $94.6 million total while Darkest Hour eased 25% to gross another $4.5 million for a $35.7 million total. In its second weekend of wide release Molly's Game went down 43% to gross another $3.8 million for a domestic total of $20.7 million. In the face of hordes of family movie competition, Ferdinand dropped 56% and grossed another $3.4 million for a $75.4 million domestic total. Before it finally enters wide release next weekend, I, Tonya took in another $3.3 million, a 35% increase from last weekend, from 517 theaters for a per-theater average of $6,387 and a domestic total of $10 million.

The Shape of Water took in another $2.7 million (a 14% dip from last weekend) from 723 theaters for a per-theater average of $3,734 and a domestic total so far of $26.4 million. Fellow Fox Searchlight title Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri expanded back into 1,022 location and grossed $2.3 million for a per-theater average of $2,250 and a domestic total so far of $28.5 million. Lady Bird had it's third straight weekend of weekend-to-weekend increases as it went up 7% to gross another $1.6 million from 652 locations for a per-theater average of $2,586 and a $36.9 million domestic total. Meanwhile, Phantom Thread had an impressive expansion into 62 locations as it grossed $1.1 million for a per-theater average of $18,468 and a $2.2 million domestic total so far. This one's been doing gangbusters business in limited release but I'll be very curious to see how it does in its expansion into wide release on Friday.

The thoroughly peculiar way Sony Pictures Classics is releasing Call Me By Your Name marched onward as the title expanded into 174 theaters in its eighth weekend of release and grossed $715,559 for a per-theater average of $4,112 and a domestic total so far of $7.1 million. This one looks like it's on track to become only the 25th movie ever from Sony Pictures Classics to gross over $10 million domestically. Meanwhile, Open Road Films quest to get Marshall over $10 million domestically by any means necessary continued as they gave the title it's third theatrical re-expansion by bringing it back into 378 theaters where it grossed $405,556 for a per-theater average of $1,073 for a $9.8 million domestical. This Thurgood Marshall biopic should get to $10 million after all, albeit barely.
Before it expands into 3,000 theaters on Friday (yes, you read that right, 3,000 theaters), Hostiles took in another $276,000 (a 3% increase from last weekend) from 42 locations for a per-theater average of $6,571. With $821,468 collected so far, I'll be mighty curious to see what kind of business Hostiles procures in its massive theatrical expansion. Finally, Condorito: La Pelicula, a film adaptation of the Chilean comic Condorito, grossed only $236,000 from 153 locations.

The Top 12 movies grossed a total of $132.3 million, the third biggest second weekend of any given year and 3% ahead of the same weekend from last year when Hidden Figures was at the top of the box office amidst a bunch of weak new wide releases.

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